Brothers and sisters, the 3-day New Year holiday of 2025 is about to end. Bitcoin has seen three consecutive days of positive movement from 2024 to 2025, and the price has returned to the 97,000 range. Currently, the resistance lies between 97,800 and 98,500. Some long positions are still stuck in this range, while in the rebound process, there are also some short positions trapped between 94,500 and 95,500. Today is Friday, and at this point, Bitcoin is at 97,000. It should continue to move sideways for the next two days, just as the market is closed on Saturday and Sunday. During the weekend, when liquidity is low, retail traders will be kept on hold. Whether you're chasing longs or shorts, the volatility is likely to be low. However, from Monday to Wednesday next week, the market should start to choose a direction, as various economic data will be released on the 8th, 9th, and 10th. For those trapped in short positions, it's important to set stop-loss orders to prevent a potential V-shaped reversal in the market, which could be driven by favorable news next week, starting the bullish trend as Trump returns to office.
Moreover, the current trend of the US stock market (Dow Jones) has been adjusting since December 5th, dropping from 45,000 to 42,000 USD, which essentially brings the index back to the starting point of the rally when Trump’s victory in the presidential election was announced on November 6th. After two months of rising and falling, it has returned to the point where the rally began, suggesting that the market is waiting for the period around January 20th when Trump takes office again to spark another rally.
As for the cryptocurrency market, after Trump's victory in the election, Bitcoin broke its 24-year high on November 6th, rising from 73,000 to a peak of 108,000, and now it is around 97,000. The current situation in January is quite awkward. Why? Because historical data shows that early to mid-January is usually a period of adjustment. However, 2025 is different because Trump will take office on January 20th, which may change this historical trend and could lead to a fast-moving market. This is why the market is fluctuating so much right now—because the time for the "whales" to wash the market is running out.
Therefore, it's not a good time for people who use high leverage contracts to trade short-term. Instead, it might be better to choose a direction and take a long position. In the event of a short-term dip, it’s safer to resist the downward movement and hold onto long positions, as it's better to hold through adjustments rather than fighting against the short side. If the market continues to fluctuate next week during the data release and washout phase, there might be an opportunity to enter the market between 93,500 and 91,500. Would you dare to take the risk and go all in?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.