The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December as planned, but due to an unfavorable outlook on inflation control, its stance has turned hawkish. According to the FOMC's forecast for the benchmark interest rate by the end of 2025, there may be only two rate cuts next year (25 basis points each), which is lower than the market's expectation of three. The probability of a rate cut in January next year is only 6.4%.