Bitcoin’s price has consistently stayed above $90,000 over the past week, and the psychological milestone of $100,000 appears within reach writes Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn.
On November 24, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $99,860 before experiencing a modest 8% correction, trading as low as $91,420. While corrections of this magnitude were once routine, today’s heightened market attention means every movement sparks debate.
Galaxy Digital, wrote in a letter to investors, “For a variety of reasons, we believe the Bitcoin bull market has legs. There will be corrections and hiccups, which is normal. There could even some twilight regulatory or law enforcement actions from the outgoing Biden administration that jitter markets. But a combination of increasing institutional, corporate, and potentially nation-state adoption, a new U.S. administration that is shaping up to be extremely pro-Bitcoin, and solid positioning and network data all point to higher over the near and medium term.”Historical Context and Corrections
Historically, Bitcoin has weathered significant drawdowns, often exceeding 40% during bull markets. In 2024, between March 14 and November 6, Bitcoin remained in a volatile downward channel, ranging between $73,835 and $49,005—a 40% peak-to-trough decline. The recent 8% dip, by comparison, seems mild, especially considering that Bitcoin experienced at least five 15%+ drawdowns during the same period earlier this year. Such corrections are a normal feature of Bitcoin’s bull runs, which, as Galaxy’s Alex Thorn notes, “climb a wall of worry.”
Supply Dynamics: Who’s Selling?
On-chain data offers insights into selling pressure. Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders (LTHs) has declined as prices rose post-election, but truly long-term holders, such as those who have held Bitcoin for years, are not selling. Instead, the selling pressure is primarily from more recent LTHs who accumulated during the price chop between $56,000 and $72,000 earlier this year. This is evident in metrics like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which remain stable, indicating that very old coins are not moving on-chain.
Further analysis using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric reveals concentrated ownership among coins created during the March-to-November period. This suggests that current sell-offs stem from traders locking in profits rather than whales or early adopters exiting the market. Below $87,000, sparse ownership levels mean that buyers from mid-November onward would be underwater.
Options Market Insights
Thorn says that the options market paints a bullish picture. Open interest in options on spot-based Bitcoin ETFs exceeds $4.1 billion, with $3.1 billion concentrated in call options at strikes of $93,000 or higher. This indicates that market participants are positioning for further upside. Notably, crypto-native dealers are net short gamma at $93,000, meaning they must buy as prices rise, amplifying upward moves toward $100,000. However, this dynamic shifts at $106,000, where volatility may dampen.
Policy and Adoption Catalysts
Bitcoin’s bullish outlook is supported by regulatory developments and adoption trends:
Pro-Bitcoin U.S. Administration: Key officials, including Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent and VP-elect J.D. Vance, are vocal Bitcoin advocates. Plans to shift digital asset oversight to the CFTC from the SEC are seen as favorable.
Institutional Expansion: Regulatory clarity may enable major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup to enter the crypto space. This could increase financing options and mature the institutional crypto market.
Global Adoption: Nations like Morocco are reconsidering crypto bans, and discussions about a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve are intensifying. Meanwhile, events like Bitcoin MENA in Abu Dhabi may drive further adoption announcements.
Conclusion: Tearing Down the $100K Wall
Thorn write that despite short-term profit-taking and corrections, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain robust. The combination of institutional interest, policy shifts, and on-chain dynamics suggests that Bitcoin is poised to break the $100,000 barrier. With strong support forming and a clear regulatory and adoption trajectory, Bitcoin’s path forward looks increasingly bullish.
As Thorn concludes, “The setup for Bitcoin over the next 12 to 24 months appears unique and bullish,” signaling that the $100K milestone is not just a possibility but an expectation in the near term.