GM

U.S. CPI data will be released today at 8:30 AM ET (in 3 hours). This data is key for the Fed’s next move. While inflation has been cooling, the expectation is for no rate changes at next week’s meeting (September 18). However, if the data is very positive, a 25bps rate cut isn't entirely off the table.

In my view, if the data is favorable, the market will likely start pricing in a potential rate cut for Q4 2024, regardless of whether it happens in September or November.

Let’s see how it plays out.

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