According to Cointelegraph: The Bitcoin bull-bear market indicator has flipped back to bullish after Bitcoin's brief drop below $50,000 triggered its first bearish signal since January 2023. This shift in the indicator, which tracks investor sentiment, signals renewed bullish conditions after three days of bearish warnings as Bitcoin’s price fell to levels not seen since February.
“Most Bitcoin on-chain cyclical indicators that were hovering near the borderline have now shifted back to signalling a bull market,” CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju noted in an Aug. 9 post on X (formerly Twitter).
Pseudonymous crypto trader PlanB echoed this sentiment, asserting, “Bitcoin is still in a bull market.” Ju added that the recent price dip, which saw Bitcoin fall to $49,751 on Aug. 5, was brief, with the price being "discounted for only three days." This drop, dubbed "Crypto Black Monday," marked Bitcoin's first dip below $50,000 since February.
Bitcoin traded below the critical $60,000 level until Aug. 8, according to CoinMarketCap data. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered to $60,732.
The last time the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator flashed a bearish signal was in January 2023, shortly after the FTX collapse. Alongside this indicator, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also reflected extreme bearish sentiment, hitting a score of 17 on Aug. 6—the lowest since the FTX crash. However, the index has since bounced back to a "Neutral" reading of 48.
Some Bitcoin traders suggest that the quick price recovery might indicate a bear trap, where experienced traders sell Bitcoin in a controlled manner to temporarily lower the price, trapping short-sellers.
Analysts Divided on Bitcoin's Next Move
Opinions are split among analysts regarding Bitcoin's next steps. While some believe the recent downturn mirrors past trends that preceded bull runs, others remain cautious.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggested on Aug. 7 that “to ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s.”
In an Aug. 6 report, Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, highlighted that Bitcoin's most critical price supports are at $52,000 and $46,000.
Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt compared Bitcoin's current decline to the post-halving pattern seen during the 2015-2017 bull market cycle, indicating that a potential bull run could be on the horizon.
