What are we looking at today:
Story of the Day: Gold and oil can predict stuff?
Rookie around the world: “The rich get richer”
Rookie analysis: Bitcoin keeps falling, Altcoins fall harder.
The Curious Rookie: Monopoly Go is going… and going
Crypto Rookie Essentials: Commodities, sorry what?
Rookie steps: How to start saving up to invest or trade?
Top 24-hour crypto news:
Hong Kong’s Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs get a green light.
German Bank LBBW joins crypto custody race with Bitpanda tie-up.
A 14-year-old dormant Bitcoin miner transfers 50 BTC to Coinbase.
Story of the Day:
Does the chicken make the egg or does the egg make the chicken?
I was having a friendly Twitter discussion (yeah right) with a crypto trader about the charts and the political issues around the world. He insisted that the war and other things happen because of the charts, the charts directly changed the direction of humanity.
It sounded a bit like a fairy story to me, but then I read a great article from Anthony Pompliano, that talked precisely about that exactly (remember, this was on Thursday, 3 days before the attack!)
Trading view, Gold 1 day
The article mentioned that Gold has hit $2,400 over the last 24 hours, which is a new all-time high price for the precious metal… and he said:
I think there are a few things worth calling out related to the recent rise in gold.
First, when the price of gold rises most people will point to existing geopolitical turmoil as the main driver. In a Reuters article this morning, Ashitha Shivaprasad writes:
“Safe-haven gold prices hit an all-time high on Friday on track for a fourth straight weekly gain as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and economic concerns about China spurred robust demand….There is potential for more upside in prices amid central bank purchases and as demand for safe-haven assets rises with growing anxiety among investors about geopolitical conflicts escalating”
It is not crazy to think that existing geopolitical events could be driving some of the price movement, but the question is whether the entire price movement could be explained by these issues which have been going on for months now.
That seems unlikely.
Joseph Wang, who runs FedGuy.com, has a different hypothesis: “Gold still surging — kinda concerning. Maybe someone is preparing for a big geopolitical move as they know they’ll lose their dollars and euros after the fact
Anthony here had the same thought as me, it’s unlikely that a chart change predicted the war. But it happened.
He then explains that it may be because of Iranian government is buying gold in anticipation of the conflict that they were creating. Plus, the guys at Reuters said it perfectly “Demand for safe-haven assets rises with growing anxiety among investors about geopolitical conflicts escalating”, and this happens with a snowball effect too.
If this big guy is buying gold, he is afraid. And fear is contagious
So, these price surges can be attributed to many things, and we usually never know what makes the price go up or down, we can infer and give our reasons but the markets are just a big old physiologic game that, apparently, rules the world.
Now, this is amazing. We all know it shouldn’t work like that. Prices making macro-political situations and conflicts happen? But the data shows that.
And the data is showing something weary too:
West Texas Oil, 1 Day chart
This is oil, everyone say hi. He is the reason you cry in the morning before starting your car to go to work.
Oil, sorry for the messy chart again, has climbed 18% this year and the price is hovering at $90 a barrel, it looks like it may repeat its explosive trend of Dec of 2021 as traders are now bracing for escalation between Iran and Israel:
Citi analysts said barrels could touch the $100 mark if direct conflict breaks out.
Societe Generale said Brent could move as high as $140
The IEA (International Energy Agency) said global crude supply is at greater risk now.
Is taking a bit longer than at the end of 2021 but is just a matter of time for Oil to start going higher again. Higher oil means, higher inflation, risk-off markets, and, according to our previous thoughts, it means crises around the world.
I found this thought from a Yahoo finance strategist:
The Mideast has been a constantly tumultuous part of the world for decades, but the only time that fact affects capital markets is when the price of crude oil spikes,” the strategists said.
While oil prices do not usually remain at crisis-level for long, prior oil shocks — in 1973, 1979, and 1990 — did indeed occur just before an economic downturn.
“Rising oil prices are the biggest concern from an inflationary perspective,” Kpler’s lead oil analyst Matt Smith told me last night.
What we can say for sure is that, at least, the markets can give us insights into what is going on around the world. Gold just showed us that. So, if we have our keen eyes stuck to the charts, and our sharp ears listening carefully to geo-political events… We might get a useful analysis and be prepared for what is coming.
(Not financial advice)
Rookie around the world:
Pirate attacks are back
2. The rich get richer: Goldman and Sack's great Q1 performance is boosted by consumer spending.
WSJ April 16th
3. Dubai is underwater:
Rookie analysis:
Bitcoin keeps falling:
After breaking this triangle pattern Bitcoin has kept going down, just as expected. Most importantly, Altcoins have been even lower, proving right our assumption that Bitcoin will keep crushing them, despite it’s fall
(Not financial advice)
The Curious Rookie:
A lesson on resistance and just crazy numbers.
Monopoly Go, spent 500 Million dollars in Marketing! And it has paid off.
What’s even crazier?
The app just launched a year ago in April 2023.
In just 7 months after launching, Monopoly Go! generated its first billion in revenue. By the end of the following 3 months, it had reached $2B.
So how did Monopoly Go! become the highest-earning app in under a year? And reach $1B faster than any other casual game
Monopoly Go! became the fastest casual game in history to reach $1B in revenue.
But while the app is seen as an ‘instant’ success, it was not built overnight.
Lessons from a successful app
Monopoly Go! took over 7 years to develop.
Why did it take so long?
The app was created by a dedicated team from Scopely, full of game designers, developers, marketing experts, game testers, etc…
And the team wanted to create an app that they loved. They wouldn’t settle for second best.
So they kept pushing themselves even after creating several good versions of the app.
Originally they were working on an app called Boardwalk, still based on Monopoly, but it required a lot more skill to build wealth.
In fear of losing millions of potential players, they left the project and started on Monopoly Go!
And with Monopoly Go!, they spent months on every minute detail in the game design. They wanted each part of the game to be t perfect experience.
This drive to make the perfect game made Monopoly Go! successfully addicting.
In the year since launching, Monopoly Go! players have:
Completed nearly 2B games
Sent more than 150M friend requests
Passed Go more than 40B times
It’s crazy!
Crypto Rookie Essentials:
Commodities:
The commodities markets are where people buy and sell basic goods like oil, gold, wheat, or even coffee. These goods are called “commodities,” and they’re essential to our everyday lives because they power our cars, heat our homes, and feed us.
So, why should we care about the commodities markets?
Impact on Prices: When the prices of commodities go up or down, it can affect the cost of things we use daily, like fuel and food.
Investment Opportunities: People can invest in commodities to potentially make money. If you think a certain commodity will increase in value, you can buy it now and sell it later for a profit.
Economic Indicator: The prices of commodities can tell us a lot about the health of the economy. For example, if oil prices go up, it might mean that demand is high because the economy is doing well.
Global Influence: Commodities markets can be affected by events around the world, like conflicts or weather disasters, which can also impact our daily lives.
So, keeping an eye on commodities markets can help us understand how the world around us is changing and how it might affect our own lives.
Rookie steps:
Saving up to start investing/trading:
Starting a fund to invest is a big move, but you got this! Here’s a step-by-step guide to get you on your way:
1. Learn the Basics:
Get familiar with investing and the different types of assets you can invest in (stocks, crypto, real estate, etc.).
Read books, watch videos, or take courses to understand how investing works.
2. Set Your Goals:
Decide what you want your fund to achieve. Are you saving for a big purchase, like a house? Or do you want to grow your wealth long-term?
Think about your risk tolerance. Do you want to play it safe or are you okay with taking some risks?
3. Choose Your Strategy:
Decide how you want to invest. You can do it yourself or use a robo-advisor to manage your investments.
Research different investment strategies, like value investing or growth investing.
4. Open an Investment Account:
Choose a brokerage or platform to open your investment account. Look for low fees and a user-friendly interface.
Complete any necessary forms and provide the required documentation.
5. Build Your Fund:
Start adding money to your account. You can set up automatic transfers to make it easy.
Diversify your investments by spreading your money across different types of assets. This helps manage risk.
6. Keep Learning and Adjusting:
Stay updated on market trends and news.
Review your investments regularly and adjust your strategy if needed.
7. Stay Patient and Focused:
Investing is a long game, so don’t get too caught up in short-term ups and downs.
Stick to your strategy and remember why you started your fund in the first place!
You’re on your way to becoming a savvy investor! Keep learning and stay consistent, and you’ll be well on your path to building wealth.
Thanks for reading!
Let me know what you would like to read next time!
