Looking ahead to the bitcoin market in 2024, I have the following general views:
1.
Late September to late October: Start to rise gradually, ushering in a bullish trend.
2.
Late October to late December: Enter a slow decline, possibly reaching the second bottom of the bear market, I estimate around 21000, this is just a guess.
3.
Bitcoin halving in 2024: Usually does not cause much market volatility, as this is a well-known event that the market has digested. But it is also unlikely to fall below 15000, as there are many people waiting to buy the dip.
4.
The best bottom: It may plummet first to lure out the shorts, and then when it breaks 20000, the market is generally bearish, causing a batch of people to short, and then the bystanders see the second bottom low near the previous level and buy the dip. This is a good opportunity for the bottom.
5.
Different from 2020: The number of people who buy the dip in the market is different, it may be difficult to reproduce the big drop in 2020, unless there is a devastating black swan event.
