Republican Sweep? What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting for Election Day

As of Nov. 1, 2024, with just 96 hours until Election Day, the U.S. betting markets are seeing fresh shifts. By 3:40 p.m. EST, archived stats show Kalshi.com bettors gave Trump a 56% likelihood of victory, while Harris trails with a 44% chance. Just five days back, this same regulated prediction market had Trump leading at 62% and Harris at 38%.

Kalshi’s bettors also estimate a 15% possibility of Trump taking a traditionally deep-blue state. In the battlegrounds, Trump holds a lead in four of the six hotly contested states—Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada—while Harris clinches Wisconsin and Michigan. Across all predictions, Kalshi’s users see a 38% chance of a Republican sweep, with the GOP taking the executive office, Senate, and House of Representatives.

On Polymarket, Trump’s odds sit at 60%, while Harris holds 40%. Just five days back, Trump was at 65% with Harris at 34.9%. Back then, Trump led in all six swing states, but today’s numbers tell a different story. Like Kalshi’s stats, Polymarket now shows Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Polymarket also indicates a 40% likelihood of a Republican trifecta.

As of 3:40 p.m. EST on Friday, Kalshi and Polymarket bettors both project Harris to win the popular vote, with Trump still expected to capture the electoral college, though with narrower odds. As Election Day looms, the shifting markets highlight a tight, competitive race where both candidates retain viable paths to victory. The latest numbers reveal a potential split between popular and electoral votes, hinting at voter divisions that could impact the outcome and aftermath.

With Trump’s dip and Harris’s rise adding intrigue, the forecast rests heavily on battleground state performances, making these final hours crucial for possible upsets. These odds reflect that both Kalshi and Polymarket are factoring in recent events that may influence swing states and the ultimate result.

While fluctuations persist in key states, the close margins point to the influence of undecided voters and last-minute campaigns. Each prediction point reveals a blend of strategy and pace, keeping the outcome open to twists as Election Day draws near and forecasts approach the finish line.