$ETH has dropped back below the daily medium-term downtrend resistance and is attempting to regain that level. Let's do some price action analysis to assess the likely direction.

The reaction from the green box region in the middle is positive, but the RSI side still does not approve the rise with the current momentum. There is a hidden negative divergence in the RSI in the 4H and above time frame.

👉For the continuation of the rise:
Technically, in order to say that the upward movement has started, the lower red box supply zone must be broken, but personally I prefer to see a candle body close above the upper red box.

👀Why?
Because this region is the optimal trade entry region for the continuation of the decline after the correction of the last downward swing movement, and at the same time, a supply zone has formed and overlapped in the 4H and below time frame. It is likely to work stronger than the lower supply zone.

The 3,987 that I mentioned as our most important resistance in the previous analyses I shared also points to the same level, and as you can guess, these formations are not by chance.

If the decline continues, if the last pinned upper green box does not work, the lower green box support is available as the daily bullish order block in the higher time frame.

I don't really care about formations, but for those who want to look at it formation-based, the target of the double top formation (the formation equivalent of what we call a swing failure pattern in price action) that caused the decline above is approaching the liquidation level I marked at the bottom, and I hope it doesn't work.

I will not go into yesterday's interest rate cut and macroeconomic issues because I am trying to progress this place only with a crypto focus. Those who are interested in general financial issues, macroeconomics, stock markets, commodities, etc. can take a look at my X account that I run with the same user account.

First, let's summarize what happened and then look at the price action side a little.

$BTC hit our target that I shared before and made #ATH , and then yesterday's developments made a wick under the trend and like in the previous examples, the trend below liquidation was swept and the price held on to the trend again.

- Is the movement we are seeing now positive?
Yes
- So can the decline come again?
That is also yes
- Why and how?
Let's see...

When we look at the chart as a line chart (without wicks), we see that the trend is still working well and there seems no need to calibrate.

But I am trying to progress with the basics of price action, liquidation and smart money concepts rather than trend lines. I think you cannot have a better guide than these when you go down to lower time frames. I look at general chart formations and trend lines as a leading indicator / forecasting assistant in the middle and high time frames and they are not my first priority.

The grey box is our previous bullish swing and this is our area of ​​interest.

The current movement is the correction movement of the previous bullish swing (for now). If you look at the graphs I shared before, it turned exactly from the area I gave as support and this level was a liquidation level, and it swept it.

What should we follow?

👉Now we have the supply area that I gave with the red box in front of us. I expect the price to rise to here. The reaction it will give here will show the continuation of the movement. If it can break this area, it will probably make an #ATH like the targets I shared before.

If it cannot break here, it will indicate that the correction movement in our area of ​​interest is not over yet and we will see the continuation of the decline.

There are two scenarios here:

👉1) If the price comes back to the wick levels in this last decline and makes a quick return after the wick as it is now, we may not wait for further decreases because the remaining liquidation will also be cleared and we will have received the return confirmation with the double bottom formation.

👉2) In this case, if there are not enough buyers left since the liquidation at the old wicked level has been cleared, it will probably go down to the liquidation level below and the order block. If the rise continues from here, we will be following the reversal candle formations.

When we see permanent candle closings under the green box below, then we start to evaluate that the bullish character has changed on the daily time frame (CHoCH and MSB) and there may be deeper declines.