本期 #Launchpool‬ 通过往期打新、部分对标代币、币安首期盘前交易、及目前市场情绪，基于本人个人的认知，对于$SCR 上市价格的预测和打新收益预期分享，DYOR
根据近期Launchpool数据计算每1$BNB 获得代币数量
近期BNB池打新数量维持在1840万个左右，本期SCR分配4675万个代币，预期每BNB可获得2.54枚SCR代币
根据获取代币数量与BNB价格计算收益比例和SCR代币价格
注：预测时使用BNB价格为570美金

近期Launchpool收益率较多的是约0.5%，例如HMSTR
如果打新占比较多，则有约1%，例如CATI
同时不排除项目融资估值和市场估值较高的情况
以及同类型项目现市值对比
可以得出不同的预估价格和收益预期，综合预期为1.176%收益率，综合预期价格2.63$
⚠️注意：以上价格和收益率预期，完全没有以项目的角度进行预估，完全是对目前币安市场情况的个人认知，作出的判断。#dyor
盘前交易价格预期
因本次代币上市前有首次盘前交易，盘前交易市场的参与情况是不太明朗的，此举应该也是币安想要使Launchpool代币正式上市后的价格走势，优于之前开盘后下跌过多的情况，的一种尝试。
个人认为应该是可以起到不错的效果，同时提醒大家首次盘前交易不确定性较大，注意价格波动较大的风险（币安盘前交易有限额，应该也是想使市场规避一些风险因素）
如果我是币安工作人员，应该尽可能选择一期相对更好些的项目（包含融资情况、项目价值、市场预测等因素等）
开盘后价格预期1.875左右
因目前不确定盘前交易时间有多久，之后才在现货上市，如果盘前交易维持在1.875左右，预计现货正式上线后应该还会有一波上涨，具体还要看盘前交易价格是多少，如果大于综合预期价格，那么正式上线后有回调风险
再次说明一下，我对SCR项目的了解比较少，以上预期完全是个人基于市场的看法，对$SCR 完全谈不上信仰或贬低，我目前只对BNB和BTC有信仰。
我个人预期代币数量获得800+、预期收益2000$ 、预期卖出价格2.5$ 、不贪更高的价格也是比较香了，不知道大家怎么看？
别忘了点赞、关注、评论，一起分享热点事件观点与想法🫰

Date: 26-09-2024

The chart provides a fascinating insight into Altseason cycles from 2016 to 2025, focusing on Altcoins' market cap growth over time. I breaks down the Altseason phenomenon, explores the previous cycles, and offers insights into what might be coming in 2024-2025. Let's dive into each aspect, explain the key takeaways, and provide actionable insights. 📈
What is Altseason? 🤔
In crypto, Altseason refers to a period when Altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth. Historically, after major Bitcoin rallies, Altcoins tend to surge, leading to significant gains for traders and investors.
1️⃣ Altseason I (2016-2017) 🕰️
🔑 Key Highlights:
Market Cap Before Breakout: ~$585 millionPeak Market Cap: ~$500 billion 💰Growth Multiple: Approx. 850x growth in total market capDuration: This rally took place over approximately 2 years, from the start of 2016 to late 2017.
📅 Historical Context:
After Bitcoin's rally in 2016, Altcoins experienced massive gains as institutional and retail investors sought out alternative assets.Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), and other Altcoins saw explosive growth during this phase, which many traders call the "first Altseason".
🔥 Example:
Ethereum rose from under $10 in early 2016 to nearly $1,400 at its peak in early 2018. 🚀
2️⃣ Altseason II (2020-2021) 🌈
🔑 Key Highlights:
Market Cap Before Breakout: ~$163 billionPeak Market Cap: ~$1.5 trillion 🏔️Growth Multiple: About 9x growth in total market capDuration: Lasted about 1.5 years, from early 2020 to mid-2021.
📅 Historical Context:
After the Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the cryptocurrency market exploded.The DeFi boom (Decentralized Finance) also played a major role, with tokens like Uniswap (UNI), Chainlink (LINK), and AAVE seeing astronomical gains.Institutional interest also surged during this period, with hedge funds, corporations, and even governments embracing cryptocurrencies.
🔥 Example:
Solana (SOL) skyrocketed from around $1.50 in early 2021 to over $200, giving early investors huge returns. 🔥
🔮 Takeaway:
The 2020-2021 Altseason saw larger inflows than 2016-2017, reflecting the growing maturity of the market and increased institutional adoption.
3️⃣ Altseason III (2024-2025) 📅🌕 Projected
🔑 Key Highlights (Projected):
Market Cap Before Breakout: ~$800 billion (current levels)Potential Peak Market Cap: Between $3 trillion and $4 trillion ❗Growth Multiple (Projected): 3x to 5x increase in total market cap
🔍 Why 2024-2025?
Historically, Altseasons follow Bitcoin Halving Cycles (which occur every 4 years). The next Bitcoin halving is expected to happen in April 2024, reducing BTC block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. This halving will likely trigger another Bitcoin rally followed by a huge Altcoin bull market.
🔮 What to Expect?
If history repeats itself, Altcoins will begin to surge after Bitcoin hits new highs. New narratives like AI, Web3, and DeFi 2.0 could drive this next Altseason. Altcoins with real utility and strong development communities are expected to lead this charge.
4️⃣ Identifying Key Patterns Across All Cycles 🔍
Breakout Levels 🛠️
In both Altseason I and II, there was a clear breakout (marked by the red box in each cycle) where the market transitioned from sideways consolidation to an upward explosion in value.In Altseason III, we're approaching a similar breakout, suggesting that we may be on the verge of the next major rally. 📈
Green Accumulation Zones 💹
The green area represents the accumulation zone, where smart money (institutional investors, whales) buys assets before the breakout.Altcoins currently sit in this accumulation zone (shown in Altseason III), and historically, these are the periods when the best buying opportunities arise before a parabolic rally.
Parabolic Run-Ups 🚀
In all cycles, once the breakout occurs, Altcoins go parabolic for a sustained period, lasting 6-18 months.
5️⃣ The Role of Bitcoin Halving & Altcoin Cycles 🔄
🔍 Bitcoin's Influence:
Bitcoin's dominance tends to rise during its initial bull runs, but after reaching a new ATH (All-Time High), traders and investors rotate into Altcoins, seeking higher ROI.
📅 Projected Timeline:
2023: Consolidation phase for Altcoins, accumulation phase begins.2024: Bitcoin Halving in April will likely trigger the next Altcoin bull market.Late 2024 - Early 2025: Peak Altseason—where Altcoins can rally several hundred percent.
🔥 Example:
During the 2020-2021 Altseason, Bitcoin dominance dropped from 70% to 40%, signaling a massive inflow of capital into Altcoins. This could happen again in 2024-2025.
6️⃣ Potential Altcoin Performers 🚀🔍
💡 Top Categories to Watch:
Layer 1 & 2 Protocols (e.g., Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche)DeFi: Projects that offer decentralized financial solutions (e.g., AAVE, Uniswap, Synthetix)Web3 & Metaverse Tokens: (e.g., Decentraland, The Sandbox, Flow)
🔥 Example:
Ethereum (ETH) is a historical performer, and it will likely remain a key player in the next Altseason. However, emerging projects (e.g., Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), or Cosmos (ATOM)) could offer higher percentage gains during this period.
7️⃣ Timing the Market: When to Enter Altcoins? 🕰️
⏳ Accumulate During Accumulation Phase:
Based on the chart, the red box area signals the ideal accumulation phase. The current market (late 2023) suggests we are in this accumulation phase.
🚨 Watch for Breakout Signals:
As history shows, once Altcoins break out from their sideways consolidation, the market cap can grow exponentially within a few months. The red breakout boxes in previous cycles serve as key indicators to watch.
8️⃣ Conclusion: How to Prepare for the Next Altseason? 🔮
📈 Key Takeaways:
Historical Patterns: Altcoins tend to explode after Bitcoin reaches new highs post-halving.Accumulation Period: 2023 appears to be an accumulation phase, signaling the best opportunity for long-term positions.Exponential Growth: If Altseason III mimics the previous cycles, expect 3-5x market cap growth, possibly reaching $3 trillion or more by 2025.Emerging Narratives: Projects in DeFi, Web3, Layer 1/2 solutions, and AI could be the major performers during the next rally.
🔮 Altseason III is approaching fast! Are you ready? Let’s discuss your favorite Altcoins and how you’re preparing for the next bull market! 💬👇

Date: 26-09-2024

The chart provides a fascinating insight into Altseason cycles from 2016 to 2025, focusing on Altcoins' market cap growth over time. I breaks down the Altseason phenomenon, explores the previous cycles, and offers insights into what might be coming in 2024-2025. Let's dive into each aspect, explain the key takeaways, and provide actionable insights. 📈
What is Altseason? 🤔
In crypto, Altseason refers to a period when Altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth. Historically, after major Bitcoin rallies, Altcoins tend to surge, leading to significant gains for traders and investors.
1️⃣ Altseason I (2016-2017) 🕰️
🔑 Key Highlights:
Market Cap Before Breakout: ~$585 millionPeak Market Cap: ~$500 billion 💰Growth Multiple: Approx. 850x growth in total market capDuration: This rally took place over approximately 2 years, from the start of 2016 to late 2017.
📅 Historical Context:
After Bitcoin's rally in 2016, Altcoins experienced massive gains as institutional and retail investors sought out alternative assets.Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), and other Altcoins saw explosive growth during this phase, which many traders call the "first Altseason".
🔥 Example:
Ethereum rose from under $10 in early 2016 to nearly $1,400 at its peak in early 2018. 🚀
2️⃣ Altseason II (2020-2021) 🌈
🔑 Key Highlights:
Market Cap Before Breakout: ~$163 billionPeak Market Cap: ~$1.5 trillion 🏔️Growth Multiple: About 9x growth in total market capDuration: Lasted about 1.5 years, from early 2020 to mid-2021.
📅 Historical Context:
After the Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the cryptocurrency market exploded.The DeFi boom (Decentralized Finance) also played a major role, with tokens like Uniswap (UNI), Chainlink (LINK), and AAVE seeing astronomical gains.Institutional interest also surged during this period, with hedge funds, corporations, and even governments embracing cryptocurrencies.
🔥 Example:
Solana (SOL) skyrocketed from around $1.50 in early 2021 to over $200, giving early investors huge returns. 🔥
🔮 Takeaway:
The 2020-2021 Altseason saw larger inflows than 2016-2017, reflecting the growing maturity of the market and increased institutional adoption.
3️⃣ Altseason III (2024-2025) 📅🌕 Projected
🔑 Key Highlights (Projected):
Market Cap Before Breakout: ~$800 billion (current levels)Potential Peak Market Cap: Between $3 trillion and $4 trillion ❗Growth Multiple (Projected): 3x to 5x increase in total market cap
🔍 Why 2024-2025?
Historically, Altseasons follow Bitcoin Halving Cycles (which occur every 4 years). The next Bitcoin halving is expected to happen in April 2024, reducing BTC block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. This halving will likely trigger another Bitcoin rally followed by a huge Altcoin bull market.
🔮 What to Expect?
If history repeats itself, Altcoins will begin to surge after Bitcoin hits new highs. New narratives like AI, Web3, and DeFi 2.0 could drive this next Altseason. Altcoins with real utility and strong development communities are expected to lead this charge.
4️⃣ Identifying Key Patterns Across All Cycles 🔍
Breakout Levels 🛠️
In both Altseason I and II, there was a clear breakout (marked by the red box in each cycle) where the market transitioned from sideways consolidation to an upward explosion in value.In Altseason III, we're approaching a similar breakout, suggesting that we may be on the verge of the next major rally. 📈
Green Accumulation Zones 💹
The green area represents the accumulation zone, where smart money (institutional investors, whales) buys assets before the breakout.Altcoins currently sit in this accumulation zone (shown in Altseason III), and historically, these are the periods when the best buying opportunities arise before a parabolic rally.
Parabolic Run-Ups 🚀
In all cycles, once the breakout occurs, Altcoins go parabolic for a sustained period, lasting 6-18 months.
5️⃣ The Role of Bitcoin Halving & Altcoin Cycles 🔄
🔍 Bitcoin's Influence:
Bitcoin's dominance tends to rise during its initial bull runs, but after reaching a new ATH (All-Time High), traders and investors rotate into Altcoins, seeking higher ROI.
📅 Projected Timeline:
2023: Consolidation phase for Altcoins, accumulation phase begins.2024: Bitcoin Halving in April will likely trigger the next Altcoin bull market.Late 2024 - Early 2025: Peak Altseason—where Altcoins can rally several hundred percent.
🔥 Example:
During the 2020-2021 Altseason, Bitcoin dominance dropped from 70% to 40%, signaling a massive inflow of capital into Altcoins. This could happen again in 2024-2025.
6️⃣ Potential Altcoin Performers 🚀🔍
💡 Top Categories to Watch:
Layer 1 & 2 Protocols (e.g., Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche)DeFi: Projects that offer decentralized financial solutions (e.g., AAVE, Uniswap, Synthetix)Web3 & Metaverse Tokens: (e.g., Decentraland, The Sandbox, Flow)
🔥 Example:
Ethereum (ETH) is a historical performer, and it will likely remain a key player in the next Altseason. However, emerging projects (e.g., Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), or Cosmos (ATOM)) could offer higher percentage gains during this period.
7️⃣ Timing the Market: When to Enter Altcoins? 🕰️
⏳ Accumulate During Accumulation Phase:
Based on the chart, the red box area signals the ideal accumulation phase. The current market (late 2023) suggests we are in this accumulation phase.
🚨 Watch for Breakout Signals:
As history shows, once Altcoins break out from their sideways consolidation, the market cap can grow exponentially within a few months. The red breakout boxes in previous cycles serve as key indicators to watch.
8️⃣ Conclusion: How to Prepare for the Next Altseason? 🔮
📈 Key Takeaways:
Historical Patterns: Altcoins tend to explode after Bitcoin reaches new highs post-halving.Accumulation Period: 2023 appears to be an accumulation phase, signaling the best opportunity for long-term positions.Exponential Growth: If Altseason III mimics the previous cycles, expect 3-5x market cap growth, possibly reaching $3 trillion or more by 2025.Emerging Narratives: Projects in DeFi, Web3, Layer 1/2 solutions, and AI could be the major performers during the next rally.
🔮 Altseason III is approaching fast! Are you ready? Let’s discuss your favorite Altcoins and how you’re preparing for the next bull market! 💬👇

🚨 Should You Hold or Sell $HAMSTR? A Closer Look at the Case for Selling 🚨
If you're contemplating selling your $HAMSTR tokens, you're not alone. With an enormous 130 billion tokens in circulation, concerns over the token's supply are growing among investors. Although the project team has teased a "Phase 2" reserve aimed at boosting optimism, some view this as a strategy to sustain investor interest while the team may be positioning to exit. So, is now the right time to sell $HAMSTR? Let’s break it down.
The vast supply of $HAMSTR is a key concern for experienced traders. When the token supply is this high, it typically signals that price growth will be slow and difficult to achieve. A large supply means the value of each individual token is diluted, requiring significant buying pressure to move the price upwards. This makes any substantial price gains harder to sustain, leaving $HAMSTR’s potential for upward momentum limited.
Moreover, the team's mention of a "Phase 2" reserve has sparked skepticism. While they present this as a forward-looking strategy, some investors suspect it’s a tactic to keep holders invested. This raises doubts about whether the team is focused on the token’s long-term growth or simply biding time before taking profits.
Selling your $HAMSTR now could be a prudent decision, especially if the large supply continues to hold back price growth. If you're uncertain, it may be worth examining broader market trends and considering diversifying into more established assets with a track record of stability.
Ultimately, the choice to sell or hold depends on your personal risk appetite. Some may prefer to hold in hopes of future gains, while others might see selling as the safer, more strategic option.
#Write2EarnOnBinanceSquare #BNBChainMemeCoins #BTCRecoveryAfterFOMC #FTXSolanaReturn #BinanceLaunchpoolHAMSTR

两天时间不到，两条消息传来，漂亮国又坐不住了。

美债危机还没解决，美国大选又快到了，漂亮国经济现在是前所未有的困难。美国财政部长耶伦罕见地对中示弱，中美关系能缓和吗？

【不到48小时两条消息让漂亮国心塞】

自中美博弈以来，美国连出几招，对中国多个领域进行围追堵截。可到现在，这些制裁不仅没达到目标，反而让漂亮国的虚弱越发暴露在世界眼中。

就在这两天，又有两条消息传来，把漂亮国急得不行。7 月 11 号那天，莫斯科交易所说了，人民币在俄罗斯外汇市场的占比已经达到了 99.6%。

你知道吗，漂亮国对俄罗斯的金融制裁不断加码，这使得俄罗斯被踢出了 SWIFT 结算体系。自此，俄罗斯一直在想办法突破制裁。

漂亮国更是厉害，要把已经冻结的俄罗斯资产解冻，用来帮乌克兰。美国这叫支援乌克兰吗？这明明就是变相侵占俄罗斯资产。

无赖漂亮国让莫斯科交易所今年 6 月宣布停止美元和欧元交易。

就因为这么个动作，人民币在俄罗斯外汇市场的占比提高了不少。

要晓得，俄乌冲突开始后，好多国家都怕惹上漂亮国，自己的资产被美国随意冻结、霸占。

那咋办，去美元化也开始加快了。好多国家都把存在漂亮国的金子取出来，试着在和其他国家做生意的时候，用自己国家的货币来结算。

对于漂亮国这个金融立国的国家，去美元化一旦成功，漂亮国霸权将不复存在。

现在这个速度明显加快了。除此之外，还有一个让美国难受的消息，就在两天不到的时间里又来了。

莫迪称将与俄罗斯商讨扩大本币结算，这对漂亮国可不是个好消息。印度是漂亮国极力拉拢的对象，现在却要与被漂亮国制裁的俄罗斯开展本币结算，这无疑是在加快去美元化的进程。

虽然人民币国际化的道路还长，短时间内难以取代美元。但对于反制美国金融霸权，各国不用美元就算成功。

【去美元化对漂亮国的影响】

实际上，漂亮国之所以能成为超级大国，掌握金融霸权，就是因为美元霸权。自从漂亮国把美元和石油挂钩后，世界各国要想开展贸易，就得用美元。漂亮国光是从中收取“过路费”，就能获得不少利益。

并且，在全球都用美元的情况下，美联储就等于控制了全球的财富。

漂亮国靠美元潮汐效应，通过加息降息来收割世界财富，有了美元霸权，漂亮国啥都不干，躺在印钞机上就能赚钱。

不过，这种情况快到头了。要知道，美元霸权的背后，不光得依靠石油，还得靠漂亮国的国家信用。

美债为啥卖得好？还不是因为大家都信漂亮国的信用。再说了，疫情前美债也从来没违约过啊！

可现在，漂亮国通胀厉害，不断提高债务上限，美债都算实质性违约了，欠日本的钱也一直没还。到现在，美联储还在为美债忙得不可开交。

美债关系着漂亮国的生存和发展，漂亮国的社会保险、员工的工资，甚至很多企业的贷款，都和美债有关。

也就是说，美债充斥在漂亮国的各个领域。要是美债真的违约了，要是去美元化的势头再次加快，对漂亮国的影响会相当大。

漂亮国可能会突然从内部瓦解，现在漂亮国越来越慌了。

耶伦罕见对华服软了。

7 月 9 号，漂亮国财长耶伦在听证会上，讲了美国对中俄等国搞单边制裁的后果。

让人没想到的是，耶伦这次没有像之前那样强硬，反倒罕见地承认，漂亮国的制裁虽然厉害，但没达到预期效果，而且这种单边制裁还对漂亮国有负面影响。

耶伦觉得美元在国际交易中挺重要的。漂亮国要是用美元制裁其他国家，一开始可能有点用，但时间一长，其他国家合作加强了，这影响就削弱啦。

耶伦表示：漂亮国制裁越多，其他国家就越会想办法绕开美元进行金融交易。

哎呀，耶伦这话真挺客观的。制裁对其他国家来说，就跟悬在脑袋上的达摩克利斯之剑似的。这剑还没落下来呢，谁都怕它真掉自己头上，对自己影响可大了。

但如果这剑真的落下来，效果却没达到预期，其他国家就会想，自己扛不扛得住，要不早点找别的办法，别被剑砸到。

漂亮国滥用制裁，导致其效果越来越差。可每当漂亮国挥舞制裁大棒时，大家反应都很平淡，因为结果都能猜到，对策也早想好了。

但漂亮国的威望、威信和威慑力会在这一过程中逐渐消耗，最终可能会失去霸主地位。

很明显，中俄等国的努力让耶伦和漂亮国都感受到了危机。一子落错，满盘皆输，现在漂亮国自顾不暇。大选将至，两党纷争不断，分裂趋势日益明显。

漂亮国再想伟大，怕是够呛了。
#新币挖矿HMSTR #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美联储利率决议公布在即 #加密市场急跌 #鄂B炒家

“英国比尔盖茨”麦克林奇，前段时间在他自己的游艇在地中海上面开了个party，庆祝在和惠普长达13年的官司中顺利脱罪。

结果新闻说，他的游艇遭遇了风暴沉没了！然后他也被淹死了，跟他一起被淹死的，还有摩根斯丹利的董事长乔纳森布鲁诺。
这两人都是2012年把英国一家垃圾假公司Autonomy以110亿美元卖给惠普的关键人物，卖完后没多久这公司就破产清算，惠普不但失了面子还白白损失上百亿美元。然后就是长达十多年的官司。
麦克林奇砸下巨资请律师团队，上下打点，左右周旋，前不久终于顺利脱罪，于是就有了这场游艇庆功宴。
明知道惠普的背后是美国军方，还不知道低调点，以为官司赢了就没事了，结果被一锅端。
并且就在游艇事件的同一天，当天没去参加party的这起欺诈案中的另一共同被告财务副总裁张伯伦，外出跑步时，也被一辆汽车撞si。
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#美联储何时降息？ #内容挖矿
#美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落