Will Ethereum ETFs Get Approval On Thursday? Here's What This Crypto Prediction Market Tells Us.👇
In a surprising turn of events, optimism for the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF surged dramatically. On the afternoon of May 20, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X, increasing his predicted chances of Ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75% after "hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180". This news caused Ethereum's price to spike almost immediately, rising from under $3,100 to over $3,800 in less than 24 hours.
Balchunas suggests that there is a strong possibility of at least partial approval by Thursday, which is the deadline for the VanEck ETF application. He mentioned that the SEC might approve the 19b-4 filings, enabling ETFs to be listed on the exchange. However, each ETF would also need S-1 approval, a comprehensive registration document. This approach would allow the SEC to initiate the process while retaining the ability to thoroughly review each ETF application before making a final decision.
While Balchunas is an informed insider, his perspective is just one among many. It's essential to consider other viewpoints regarding the likelihood of an ETH ETF approval within the week. Polymarket, a unique crypto application, allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events using cryptocurrency. Bets can be placed on "yes" or "no" outcomes, with potential payouts reflecting the perceived probability of the event. For example, if most participants believe an event will happen, the payout for a "yes" bet will be lower than for a "no" bet.
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Polymarket features a range of betting events, including the upcoming presidential election, Elon Musk's tweets over a week, and the number of consecutive weeks Taylor Swift's album will be No.1.
The platform attracts substantial betting activity, including on whether the Ethereum ETFs will be approved by May 31 Before Balchunas' announcement.
