Yesterday (May 15, 2024) saw the release of significant economic data. Amid a series of three consecutive days of inflation data exceeding expectations, the US CPI index roughly met expectations; however, retail data unexpectedly remained flat, continuing the recent trend of weak consumer data. Although the current level and momentum of inflation remain well above the Federal Reserve’s target, these two pieces of data somewhat alleviated market concerns about prices re-accelerating, restoring confidence in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. As a result, US Treasury yields fell in the short term, and the three major US stock indices all closed up by around 1%, reaching historical highs.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Source: Investing

In the realm of digital currencies, BTC prices surged past the 66,000 mark, buoyed by weaker U.S. economic data, sparking a frenzy in the community. BTC Spot ETF inflows have also been healthy recently. Although IBIT no longer shows growth, yesterday’s total inflow still reached $303 million, mainly contributed by FBTC and BITB. On the other hand, as shown in the comparison chart below, ETH’s performance has been relatively poor in this rally, gaining only half of BTC’s increase in the past 24 hours, returning to oscillate around the $3,000 mark.

Source: TradingView

Source: Farside Investors

In terms of options, the implied volatility levels of BTC and ETH show distinctly different changes. The primary change for BTC is the rise in mid-to-long term IV, with most of the large transactions over the past day also concentrated in this range. The largest transaction was a long straddle betting on June-end volatility, involving 277.5 BTC per leg. There was also a diagonal spread involving selling May calls and buying June calls.

For ETH, front-end IV dropped significantly, attracting a large trade involving a buy of 17 MAY vs. sell of 24 MAY with a size of 19,450 ETH per leg. Additionally, there were a considerable number of bullish options positions built for late May. Despite ETH’s recent underperformance, traders are still betting on its potential upward movement.

Source: Deribit （As of 16 MAY 8:00 UTC）

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Trading

Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTCTrading

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade