Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has suggested that the Bitcoin price may have reached a temporary low and anticipates a gradual recovery over the coming months.

Hayes Expects the Bitcoin Price to Keep Climbing

In a blog post dated May 3, Hayes shared his insights on recent market dynamics, noting that the price movements aligned with his expectations. Despite a recent drop to $58,600, Bitcoin has rebounded to approximately $60,670. Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will continue to rise, stabilizing in a range between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.

He described the recent 12% decline in Bitcoin’s value as a necessary "market cleansing" and attributed it to several factors, including U.S. tax season pressures, concerns about Federal Reserve policies, reactions to the Bitcoin halving event, and a decrease in inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Highlighting a pattern, Hayes pointed out that this 23% correction was the fourth of similar magnitude in the last year.

Looking forward, Hayes expects the cryptocurrency markets to slowly ascend, driven by an increase in dollar liquidity resulting from the Federal Reserve scaling back on quantitative tightening and the U.S. Treasury’s plans to issue more debt.

Mr. 100 Buys the Dip

Meanwhile, the #Bitcoin entity known as "Mr. 100" has made its first purchase of Bitcoin since the recent halving, buying during the recent market dip. As the Bitcoin price recovered from a low of $56,000, the price at the time of purchase was around $60,983. 

This transaction marks a significant activity for "Mr. 100" who added over 4,100 BTC, valued at approximately $242 million, near the $58,000 level. This data was highlighted by the user HODL15Capital on Bitinfocharts.

This acquisition is notable as it is the first addition of Bitcoin to the "Mr. 100" wallet since April 19, the day before the 2024 Bitcoin halving. The wallet has been actively accumulating Bitcoin since November 2022, following the collapse of the FTX exchange, consistently adding at least 100 BTC almost daily since February 14, barring the period immediately following the halving.

Currently, "Mr. 100" is ranked as the 12th largest Bitcoin holder, with a portfolio exceeding 65,155 BTC, according to Bitinfocharts. The address boasts an unrealized profit of $1.4 billion, reflecting a 33% increase on its total Bitcoin holdings, with an average purchase price of $36,572 per BTC. The total value of the wallet now stands at over $3.86 billion.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

The Bitcoin price has declined to $60,437 as options contracts for both BTC and Ethereum (ETH), valued at a combined $2.4 billion, are due to expire on May 3. This impending expiration could trigger increased market volatility.

The Bitcoin price has experienced a turbulent period on the 4-hour chart, with prices swinging between $59,060.61 and $60,431.51 in recent sessions. The market dynamics reflect a complex interplay of bullish and bearish sentiments as traders and investors gauge their next moves amidst fluctuating indicators.

4-hour chart for BTC/USDT (Source: TradingView)

The 9 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has shown gradual increases from $58,792.86 to $59,346.21, hinting at a potential bullish undercurrent in the short term. Conversely, the 20 EMA has remained relatively flat, hovering around the $59,600 mark, suggesting a consolidation phase without clear direction. The proximity of the 9 EMA above the 20 EMA in the latest data points to a slight bullish bias.

On the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) front, the indicator has presented a noteworthy recovery. The MACD line has improved from -1,129.03 to -653.40, with a consistent increase in the histogram values from 181.82 to 361.37. This development indicates diminishing bearish momentum and a potential shift towards bullish momentum as the MACD line approaches the signal line from below.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, currently stands at 52.37, having risen from a low of 43.58. This increase suggests strengthening buying pressure, though it remains to be seen if this can sustain a push above the neutral 50 threshold consistently.

The recent high of $60,431.51 approaches the key resistance level at $60,304.95 but falls short of the more significant barriers at $62,387.90, $62,936.02, and $63,842.02. A decisive break above these levels could signal a strong bullish phase. Conversely, if the upward momentum fails, the Bitcoin price might test support levels at $56,886.00 and further down at $51,731.99, where buyers could potentially look to re-enter.

Possible Trade Ideas

Given the current market setup, traders might consider long positions if $BTC sustains above the $60,304.95 resistance, with potential exits near higher resistance levels. Conversely, a drop below recent lows around $59,060.61 could be a cue for short sellers, targeting the next support at $56,886.00. It's crucial for traders to monitor volume as an increase can confirm the strength of the breakout or breakdown. The recent trading volume shows significant participation, which could fuel further price moves. #BullorBear #BTC #ETF