Matrixport’s Bitcoin Bullish Forecast
Matrixport, a notable crypto services provider that has been bullish on Bitcoin since late last year, is now predicting that the prominent cryptocurrency might rally to a significant $125,000 by the close of 2024.
Matrixport’s forecast hinges on historical data revealing that a bull market, characterized by a dramatic increase in market value, often arises following the confirmation of a bear market’s end. This confirmation typically comes in the form of Bitcoin reaching a 12-month high for the first time in at least a year.
The Market Turnaround Indicators
This pivotal turnaround signal was last activated in late June when Bitcoin surpassed the $31,000 mark, the highest it’s been since June of the preceding year. Previous instances of such turnaround signals were in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020, all of which were followed by substantial price rallies.
Bitcoin’s new one-year high on June 22, 2023, marked a critical point, historically signaling the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets, explained Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport.
Thielen extrapolated from historical data, suggesting Bitcoin prices could surge by +123% over twelve months and by +310% over eighteen months. This rise, based on the average returns following signals triggered in 2015, 2019, and 2020, could propel Bitcoin to $65,539 within twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months. The 2012 signal, followed by an exceptional 5,285% price spike in 2013, was deemed an “epic, out-of-proportion” bull market by Thielen and was not factored into his calculations.
The Role of Bitcoin Halving Events
Matrixport’s viewpoint aligns with Bitcoin’s historical tendency to chart substantial upward trends in the 12-18 months following halving events. Bitcoin halving, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half. The next halving event is slated for March or April of 2024, reducing the reward from 6.5 BTC to 3.25 BTC per block. This phenomenon typically triggers a surge in Bitcoin’s value, providing further support to Matrixport’s optimistic forecast.
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