Moody's announced the economic report for countries. 📋🏦💲
As the world charts its course through the economic waters of 2024, Moody's offers insights into the intricate dance of global economies within the G20. The forecast projects a subtle decline in G20 economic growth, easing from 2.9% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, with a modest rebound to 2.6% in 2025.
In the wake of the post-COVID-19 landscape, the global economy finds stability, buoyed by effective policy strategies, improved supply-demand balances, and the tempering influence of mild European winters. Despite a robust U.S. economy, concerns loom on the horizon, with persistent geopolitical risks and inflation casting shadows over the economic outlook.
G20 growth takes a nuanced turn, with advanced economies anticipating a growth of 1.5% this year and 1.6% in the next. Notably, Argentina stands as an exception, projected to experience contraction. Major central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BoJ, embark on a journey to lower interest rates, contingent on the taming of inflation.
Moody's maintains a watchful eye on the Fed, foreseeing a potential 100 basis points rate cut in 2024, followed by further adjustments in 2025. Meanwhile, the ECB is poised to initiate policy normalization in the second quarter. While macro-economic risks decrease, geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict and disturbances in the Middle East and Asia, persist as uncertainties impacting global growth.
The report highlights the global interplay of domestic economies, trade, and technology transfers in relation to international affairs. Notable adjustments include upward revisions for the U.S., India, and Russia, but lowered growth expectations for the Eurozone, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina.
Turkey is expected to demonstrate resilience with a forecasted 2.5% growth in 2024 and an additional 3% in 2025, offering valuable insights amidst the evolving economic landscape according to Moody's projections.
