According to PANews, the price of Bitcoin in the coming months could be entirely determined by the immense fractal energy if you believe in it. As we know, Bitcoin hit a historical high of nearly $73,740 in March, which is the peak of the current cycle. This could mean the bull market has ended. The trading prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 5% today, causing almost all other currencies except stable coins to suffer losses, which certainly does not help to boost market sentiment.
However, the problem with markets is that you never know when they will peak. Looking back, the historical high that Bitcoin set in December 2017 was obviously the highest point for the next three years, even though altcoins would continue to rise for a few weeks. In March 2021, when Bitcoin first broke through $61,000, it is still uncertain whether Bitcoin will plummet by 13% in November (only eight months later) after retreating nearly half.
At some point, the bull market has obviously come to an end. Bears may have proposed this earlier than bulls, but in any case, the internal explosion of Terra in the next May and the subsequent cascading liquidation and bankruptcy are indeed nails. When it comes to price, all we can really do is look back. Since Bitcoin bottomed out in November 2022, 585 days (about 20 months) have passed, which we conveniently call the beginning of the current bull market.
The chart depicts a comparison between bull markets. So far, everything is going well. Using this very basic definition, the previous two bull markets peaked after about 840 and 1,060 days. Therefore, if we are destined to repeat these periods—a big assumption—then we are firmly in the second half of the cycle.
In the past two quarters, the price of Bitcoin has risen 6 times and 3 times respectively. Even after the recent decline, the return on Bitcoin since it bottomed out has reached 4 times so far, placing it in the recent bull market. If Bitcoin really peaked in March, then this will be the shortest bull market cycle on record, not including the first year of its price discovery.