Bitcoin’s recent 2% pump might be getting headlines, but let’s not confuse a short-term bounce with a clear direction. The charts are telling a story of cautious optimism mixed with looming risks.
Strength or Fakeout?
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s forming a falling wedge—a pattern that often leads to a breakout. Coupled with a triple bottom on the 4-hour chart and a textbook reversal candle from last week, the setup is enticing for a short-term move to $97,500 or $98,500.
But let’s not ignore the storm clouds. The 50- and 128-day moving averages are flirting with a bearish crossover, a rare but historically significant signal that’s been a harbinger of major corrections. Factor in a developing head-and-shoulders pattern, and a potential drop to $80K—or even $77K—starts to feel uncomfortably possible.
The Investor vs. Trader Mindset
For long-term investors, none of this short-term drama should matter. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are rock solid. Institutional investors are quietly accumulating, the halving is on the horizon, and macroeconomic trends point to a brighter future. If you’re planning on buying Bitcoin during these dips, you’re mirroring exactly what the big players are doing. Stick to a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, and you’ll crush it. Levels like $92.5K have been golden opportunities to build spot positions.
But traders live in a different reality. We thrive in the here and now, navigating Bitcoin’s wild swings. Until we see a clean break and confirmation above $98.5K, it’s prudent to stay cautious. Premature breakouts are Bitcoin’s specialty, and patience will save you from unnecessary losses.
Levels to Watch
December’s bearish shooting star candle isn’t just technical noise. It’s a reminder that Bitcoin is still wrestling with resistance that’s held firm since 2017. A convincing move above $98.5K could pave the way to $114K, but if we lose $90.7K, prepare for a deeper correction to those $77K–$80K zones.
Takeaways
Bitcoin thrives on volatility, and this moment is no different. If you’re a macro investor, stay the course. Stick to your DCA strategy, trust in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, and don’t get caught up in the short-term noise.
For traders, the game is about discipline and precision. Respect the levels, wait for confirmation, and don’t let impatience dictate your decisions.
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