According to some indicators, 2025 should be a particularly good year for BTC, with price forecasts highlighting a bullish scenario.
By cross-referencing the historical data of Bitcoin with the current macroeconomic outlook, the possibility emerges that this will be the best year ever in the crypto markets.
ETH and the altcoins are also defending well and aiming for new chart records in the midst of the long-awaited alt season phase.
Let’s see all the details below.
Bullish price forecasts for BTC and ETH in 2025: watch out for Q1!
According to Steno Research, 2025 will be an exceptional year for BTC and ETH, with forecasts indicating the presence of fertile ground for growth in the market.
The price analysis sees a strong possibility that the orange cryptocurrency will reach 150,000 dollars as the top of the bull market in the coming months.
The second currency by market capitalization is expected to be traded around the target of 8,000 dollars, well above its current all-time highs.
Steno Research emphasizes that these bullish forecasts are supported by a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
The macroeconomic climate appears confident for 2025, with interest rates decreasing and improved liquidity.
Furthermore, the institutional adoption of this sector seems to be expanding day by day, strengthened by the positive inflows of spot BTC and ETH ETFs.
In this regard, according to forecasts, exchange-traded crypto funds will record inflows of 48 and 28.5 billion dollars, respectively.
The year 2025 could even be the best year ever for the crypto market, considering also the historical performances of the benchmarks.
Usually, the years following the halving di Bitcoin offer highly bullish percentage returns, both on BTC and ETH.
In 2017 for example, just one year after the halving of the block reward in 2016, the two cryptos recorded 4 bull quarters with excellent performance.
Even 2021, coming off the 2020 halving, was particularly bullish, with BTC recording 3 positive quarters out of 4, while ETH replicated the four-of-a-kind of the bull market before.
Based on these data, the forecasts for 2025 can only be optimistic: let’s see if this time history will repeat itself.
Source: https://www.coinglass.com/today
Derivative metrics: the open interest on BTC highlights the strength of the bull
Moving on to an analytical analysis, we see how the situation of BTC derivatives suggests bull price forecasts in the short term.
Since December 28, the cryptocurrency struggles to maintain the solid support of $95,000, while the demand for leverage is declining.
The bull experienced liquidations of 470 million dollars in the following days, reaching the local minimum of 91,500 dollars, before bouncing back.
The bears at the same time show reduced strength, with a potential downside on the price of Bitcoin that now seems limited.
The open interest on the cryptocurrency, which measures the total number of contracts on all BTC futures markets, suggests a bullish overall picture even with declining prices.
From the top of December 20, 2024, this metric has fallen to mark the lowest level since November 4, 2024, while still maintaining an excellent chart structure.
Furthermore, the 1-month BTC futures premium, generally traded between 5 and 10% in a neutral scenario, is currently at 15%.
This is the largest prize of the last 2 weeks, demonstrating the continued conviction of the bull despite the uncertainty over prices.
Even the funding rate, or the financing rate of exchanges that regulates the leverage imbalance, suggests positive forecasts for the beginning of the new year.
In neutral markets, the long (buyers) generally pay a monthly fee from 0.4% to 1.8%, while higher rates indicate a growing bull sentiment.
The current monthly funding rate of BTC is 1.3%, which is the highest in over two weeks, although it remains in the neutral range.
As a result, Bitcoin derivatives metrics have improved, even though open interest has slightly decreased. This suggests that Bitcoin bears are not confident in adding positions below $95,000, which provides a positive outlook for the price.
2025 could be the year of the altcoin: predictions on the ETH/BTC catalyst
The year 2025 is expected to be a positive one not only for BTC, but also for the entire altcoin sector. According to Steno’s forecasts, in the new year the dominance of the major cryptocurrency will see a decline from the current levels of 57%, dropping to around 45%.
This situation, combined with a rise of the trading pair ETH/BTC would certainly lead to a strong influx of capital into lower capitalization tokens.
We remind you that ETH/BTC is the catalyst market for the altcoin season: in fact, when ETH outperforms BTC, altcoins usually accompany the bull movement.
In this regard, the forecasts show high chances that ether will exceed at least the 0.06 level in relation to the first cryptocurrency, about double the current 0.035.
We remind you that this trading pair has been in bear mode for about 2 years and 3 months, down approximately 58% from the local top of September 2022.
It is highly probable that soon Ethereum will react to this situation of submission, especially if it wants to establish itself as the second currency in the ranking.
The bullish forecasts are also fueled by the argument that Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections will favor both BTC and altcoins.
In particular, ETH and SOL could report the most significant gains, encouraging from a very robust on-chain activity.
The total value locked (TVL) in decentralized applications is expected to exceed 300 billion dollars in 2025, far surpassing the 2021 highs of about 180 billion dollars. Asset managers like Grayscale are bull for 2025: in December, the company added several DeFi tokens to its list of the top 20 tokens to watch in the first quarter of 2025.
