Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025 could take two vastly different paths, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. In a recent interview with CNBC, Butterfill projected that Bitcoin could soar to $150,000 under supportive crypto policies. However, if global regulations take an unfavorable turn, the cryptocurrency could fall to $80,000.In the longer term, Butterfill suggested that Bitcoin might reach $250,000, capturing 25% of gold’s market cap as it solidifies its position as digital gold.

The Two Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin in 2025

 1. Bitcoin at $150,000: A Bullish Outlook

Under favorable conditions, Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 in 2025. Key drivers for this optimistic scenario include:

  • Pro-Crypto Policies: Supportive regulatory frameworks that encourage innovation and adoption.





  • Institutional Demand: Continued inflows from institutions leveraging Bitcoin ETFs and other regulated financial products.

  • Gold Market Share: Bitcoin’s narrative as digital gold strengthens, attracting more investors looking for an inflation hedge.

2. Bitcoin at $80,000: A Bearish Scenario

Conversely, adverse regulatory developments could suppress Bitcoin’s growth, causing it to decline to $80,000. Factors contributing to this outlook include:

  • Restrictive Policies: Global crackdowns on crypto usage or mining, coupled with strict compliance requirements.

  • Investor Sentiment: Fear and uncertainty stemming from regulatory pressures could reduce demand.

  • Market Correction: Bitcoin could face a prolonged downturn as speculative interest wanes.





The Long-Term Case for $250,000 Bitcoin

Butterfill’s projection of Bitcoin potentially reaching $250,000 hinges on it capturing 25% of gold’s $12 trillion market cap. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly recognized as a store of value, its adoption as digital gold could accelerate, driven by:

  • Institutional Validation: The success of Bitcoin ETFs and adoption by hedge funds and asset managers.

  • Global Economic Uncertainty: Rising inflation and economic instability bolstering demand for scarce assets.

  • Generational Shift: Younger investors favoring digital assets over traditional commodities like gold.

Factors Driving Bitcoin’s 2025 Trajectory

FactorImpact on PriceRegulatory PoliciesClear, supportive policies drive growth; restrictive laws create headwinds.Institutional AdoptionBitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and retail interest boost demand.Macro-Economic TrendsInflation, interest rates, and global instability influence investor sentiment.Technological DevelopmentsUpgrades like the Lightning Network improve usability and scalability.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Digital Gold Narrative

The comparison between Bitcoin and gold continues to shape the cryptocurrency’s valuation. As Bitcoin matures, it is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation, much like gold.

MetricGoldBitcoinMarket Cap$12 Trillion~$1 TrillionScarcityLimited supplyFixed supply (21M)UtilityPhysical use casesDigital, global reachAdoptionEstablishedGrowing exponentially

If Bitcoin captures just 25% of gold’s market cap, its price could surpass $250,000, as Butterfill suggests.

Regulatory Clarity: The Deciding Factor

Bitcoin’s path to $150,000 or $80,000 in 2025 will largely depend on regulatory decisions. Key areas to watch include:

  1. U.S. Regulations: As a leading market, U.S. policies on Bitcoin ETFs, taxation, and mining will significantly influence global sentiment.

  2. Global Coordination: International standards for crypto regulation could create a more stable environment for institutional and retail investors.

  3. Emerging Markets: Countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender or integrating it into their financial systems will impact long-term demand.

What Should Investors Expect?

  • Monitor Policy Developments: Stay informed about regulatory changes in key markets like the U.S., EU, and Asia.

  • Diversify Portfolios: Balance exposure to Bitcoin with other assets to mitigate risks associated with regulatory shifts.

  • Focus on Long-Term Trends: Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term potential as digital gold remains promising.

Conclusion

The fate of Bitcoin in 2025 hinges on the policies shaping its adoption and regulation. While CoinShares predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000 with supportive frameworks, a stricter regulatory environment could limit its growth to $80,000. Over the long term, however, Bitcoin’s potential to capture a significant share of gold’s market cap keeps the $250,000 target within reach.