NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin’s price has faced mounting challenges, slipping from the psychological $100,000 level to a low near $94,600 as Trump-inspired euphoria dissipated from the market. The brief surge following the election of a (for now) crypto-friendly president gave way to a more sobering reality dominated by macroeconomic concerns.
Recession fears stemming from New Zealand’s weakening economic indicators have compounded global uncertainty alongside persistent inflationary pressures in key economies. The shifting sentiment has dampened the bullish momentum seen in Bitcoin earlier this year.
A recent tweet from Greeks.live highlighted the expiration of 150,000 Bitcoin options on Dec. 27, with a put/call ratio of 0.69 and a max pain point of $85,000.
BTC options data shows Calls dominating puts, highlighting bullish sentiment.
The accompanying chart of open interest distribution revealed a significant bullish tilt, suggesting optimistic positioning by traders. However, exchange net flows (positive inflow dominance on Dec. 27) paint a cautionary picture, signaling potential near-term sell pressure as BTC floods exchanges.
The mixed signals underscore a market grappling with conflicting forces: lingering optimism for long-term gains tempered by immediate concerns of profit-taking and broader macroeconomic challenges.
Bearish Headwinds from On-Chain Data – Are Bulls Losing Steam?
The on-chain charts present a narrative fraught with short-term bearish pressure despite pockets of long-term resilience. Exchange Netflow data reveals a concerning uptick in green bars, indicating sustained Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.
Bitcoin exchange netflow across all exchanges. Source: Cryptoquant
Cryptoquant data suggests heightened sell pressure, particularly as traders move assets to platforms, potentially preparing for liquidation. The Dec. 27 positive netflow aligns with broader year-end selling trends, compounding bearish sentiment.
The narrative sharpens by comparing the exchange flow data with the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. The MVRV ratio has retraced from its recent peak of 2.8, signaling that Bitcoin may have entered an overbought phase.
Bitcoin market value to realized value ratio. Source: Glassnode
Declining MVRV suggests reduced market profitability, which could trigger further corrections as over-leveraged traders unwind positions.
Although currently neutral, the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has experienced occasional spikes, suggesting a rise in miner sales. Historically, miners are strategic sellers, and their recent liquidation of some holdings in response to price volatility adds pressure to the supply side.
However, bears must remain cautious. Greeks.live’s data shows a dominant call positioning in options, hinting at underlying bullish sentiment among institutional traders. Additionally, exchange outflows earlier in the month highlight accumulation trends that could resurface as the macro environment stabilizes.
Hence, while short-term indicators lean bearish, the interplay between netflows, MVRV, and MPI reveals a complex market. Bulls, though subdued, still have latent potential to reignite momentum, making this a precarious time for bears to grow complacent. As such, retail traders would likely watch their step before entering the market, waiting for clearer signals from either Bitcoin whales or the wider market.
EMA Resistance Has Bulls Struggling
The BTC USD pair’s 20-day EMA (red) trendline has been acting as a dynamic resistance for the trading pair since Dec. 19, and so far bulls have no clue as to how to flip it into support. BTC price’s little sojourn above the trendline on Dec. 25 was immediately rebuffed, and the token is now trading near $96,300 on Dec. 27.
BTCUSD daily price chart with RSI. Source: Tradingview
A breakout above the EMA resistance level could pave the way toward $104,400, a resistance level aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Historically, this level has been a pivotal point during corrections. Beyond this, $116,700 and $132,000 stand as the next major resistance zones, highlighting the challenges for bullish momentum.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA (purple) serves as the immediate support level. Below this, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support near $87,400 becomes critical. The volume profile shows strong buying interest at this level, making it a key support zone for bulls. A break below $87,400 could lead to a decline toward $77,300, another key level supported by historical buyer interest.
The volume profile also reveals reduced activity between $95,000 and $100,000, suggesting that price movements here could be swift and volatile.
The RSI at 47.87 reflects neutral momentum.
