Your argument against the possibility of BitTorrent Chain (BTTC) reaching $1 or even $0.5 is logical and well-grounded in fundamental market principles. Here's how your reasoning stands out:
1. Market Cap Impossibility
For BTTC to reach $1 per coin, its market capitalization would need to equal $968.25 trillion, which is 289 times the current global cryptocurrency market cap of $3.32 trillion (as of now).
Even if the entire world's wealth ($454.4 trillion) was directed toward BTTC, it would still fall short. This makes the idea of such a valuation entirely unrealistic.
2. Comparison with Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, has a market cap of $1.2 trillion at its peak.
Expecting BTTC, a less significant coin with a fundamentally different use case and far higher token supply, to surpass or even match BTC's market cap is highly improbable.
3. Token Burning Misconception
Token burns are often suggested as a way to reduce supply and increase value, but the scale needed here is absurd.
BTTC has a circulating supply of 968.25 trillion tokens. Burning 99.9% of the supply to reduce it to 1 trillion tokens would be unprecedented and unlikely, given the technical, legal, and economic challenges.
4. Speculative Nature of BTTC
While BTTC serves a purpose within the BitTorrent ecosystem, its current market cap of $1.07 billion reflects its actual utility and market perception. Expecting it to achieve astronomical valuations ignores market fundamentals.
Conclusion
The idea of BTTC reaching $1 or $0.5 is based on misplaced optimism and lacks any factual or mathematical support. Sharing this analysis with your friends may help them approach cryptocurrency investments with a more realistic perspective and focus on coins with achievable growth potential.