The $70k Bitcoin Puts: Betting Against the Narrative
In December, a big player placed a bet: $70,000 Bitcoin puts expiring in March. It wasn’t a bearish declaration—it was a calculated strike against the market’s faith in itself.
At the heart of the story is Michael Saylor, Bitcoin’s loudest evangelist. Through MicroStrategy, he’s bought 152,800 BTC, fueled by ATM equity issuances. But his war chest is running dry—just 68 days of capital left. Worse, MicroStrategy faces a blackout in January, pausing its relentless Bitcoin buys. Without Saylor’s TWAP bids, the market is left to fend for itself, vulnerable to a stumble.
Add geopolitical risk. With Trump back in office, his unpredictable moves on Israel, Russia, and China could shock markets. Meanwhile, hopes for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act are priced as a sure thing, ignoring political reality. These cracks are exactly what the puts buyer saw—a market riding too high on shaky assumptions.
The setup is clean: Bitcoin rallies into year-end, maybe hitting $130,000. Then comes the January pause, and prices correct to $80,000–$100,000, exactly where the puts cash in.
This wasn’t a bet against Bitcoin’s future—it was a masterstroke of timing. It’s not just about price; it’s about seeing the story the market is too eager to tell itself.
