Cardano (ADA) has emerged as one of the standout performers in the cryptocurrency market this year, with its price surging from $0.60 at the beginning of 2024 to $1.13 at the time of writing—a 90% year-to-date (YTD) gain.
Despite facing challenges along the way, Cardano’s ecosystem has made significant strides in governance, network activity, and decentralized finance (DeFi), positioning itself for long-term growth.
At press time, ADA is trading at $1.13 with a one-day decline of 6%. On the weekly chart, the token is up 2.25%.
ADA five-day price chart. Source: Finbold
Positive momentum: Governance milestones and ecosystem growth
Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem has experienced explosive growth, with its total value locked (TVL) increasing from $370 million in January 2024 to $602 million by December 9 according to DefiLlama.
This surge is mirrored in ADA’s price performance, which has climbed 157% in the past month, reaching $1.20 and tripling its value compared to the previous month.
According to Input Output Global (IOG), Cardano has surpassed 100 million total transactions, adding 2.65 million in November alone.
Furthermore, the number of projects built on Cardano has reached 1,979, with 603 new initiatives launched this year, highlighting its vibrant developer activity.
Whale activity and network accumulation have also been key drivers of ADA’s price recovery. Data from CoinGlass reveals that ADA has exhibited heightened volatility, with sharp net outflows from exchanges driving a significant price rally in late November.
ADA spot inflow/outflow. Source: CoinGlass
This behavior suggests a bullish sentiment, as reduced supply on exchanges often leads to upward price momentum.
However, intermittent inflows during the rally indicate some profit-taking, as traders brought ADA back to exchanges, possibly to capitalize on the price surge.
For traders and investors, the substantial outflows hint at strong holding behavior, which could support further price growth if demand continues to rise. However, caution is warranted during inflow spikes, as they may introduce short-term selling pressure.
Derivatives data and governance breakthrough
Cardano derivatives data also reveals a significant surge in trading activity, with a 31.53% increase in volume, bringing the total to $2.27 billion.
The long/short ratio highlights a predominance of long positions across major platforms, with Binance and OKX reporting ratios of 4.13 and 3.65, respectively, indicating bullish sentiment among traders.
ADA derivatives data. Source: CoinGlass
However, liquidation data (“rekt”) shows that shorts experienced heavier losses, particularly over the past 12 hours, with $5.68 million in liquidated longs compared to $187.64K in shorts, hinting at a volatile trading environment.
Another defining moment for Cardano in 2024 came in December with the approval of its Constitution during a global convention held in Argentina and Kenya. This foundational document establishes governance protocols, scaling strategies, and Treasury management policies.
The Constitution will move on-chain next month for endorsement by decentralized representatives (DReps), ensuring decentralized governance remains a core feature of the network.
In parallel, speculation about Input Output CEO Charles Hoskinson’s potential involvement in shaping U.S. crypto policy under a new Trump administration has sparked intrigue about Cardano’s role in future regulatory developments.
Hoskinson also revealed plans for a dedicated policy division at IOG, set to launch in January 2025.
Challenges and risks
While Cardano has achieved remarkable milestones, 2024 has not been without its hurdles. On December 8, the Cardano Foundation’s official X account was compromised, resulting in two false announcements that temporarily disrupted market sentiment.
The first misleading announcement claimed the launch of a Cardano-branded token on Solana, which generated over $500,000 in trading volume according to DexScreener, before being exposed as a scam.
The second false claim alleged that the Cardano Foundation was facing a lawsuit from the SEC and would cease support for ADA.
Technical analysis paints a bearish picture
From a technical perspective, ADA’s price action has revealed a rising wedge pattern, a bearish indicator that suggests a potential reversal. Analyst Ali Martinez warns that a close below key levels at $1.10 and $1.03 could trigger a bearish breakout, pushing the price down to $0.88—a 20% correction.
Coupled with profit-taking observed during recent rallies, the pattern indicates short-term volatility that traders are advised to navigate with caution.
Despite these risks, Martinez remains optimistic about Cardano’s long-term outlook, forecasting a new all-time high of $6 between July and September 2025. This would represent a staggering 445% increase from current levels, driven by continued ecosystem growth and increasing adoption.
Mixed signals in Cardano’s market activity
Cardano’s derivatives market also paints a complex picture. Although trading volumes have remained robust, open interest has declined by 2.07%, standing at $1.10 billion. This drop suggests that some traders may be closing positions to secure profits.
Meanwhile, options trading activity has plummeted by 92.94%, with volumes falling to $6,590, signaling reduced enthusiasm for ADA options.
These mixed signals, combined with heightened market volatility, suggest ADA may face near-term resistance in its upward trajectory.
While 2024 has tested Cardano with volatile price movements and unexpected hurdles, the network has achieved significant milestones in governance and ecosystem expansion.
With increased whale activity, strong network development, and promising long-term forecasts, Cardano continues to position itself as a compelling investment despite short-term challenges.