Nov 18, 2024

6thTrade

Aptos (APT) has showcased notable performance despite mixed market sentiment, gaining 24.34% over the past month and 12.76% in the last week. At press time, APT recorded a modest daily increase of 1.08%, driven by spot traders. However, uncertainty looms as the bullish momentum faces pressure from bearish derivatives activity.

Spot Traders Drive Bullish Momentum

Spot traders have played a key role in APT's recent rally. Data from Exchange Netflow, which tracks the movement of APT between exchanges and private wallets, showed negative values for two consecutive days (November 16 and 17).

On those days, $2.03 million and $938.67K worth of APT, respectively, were withdrawn from exchanges. Negative Netflow typically indicates traders moving assets to private wallets for long-term holding, reducing the circulating supply and creating a supply squeeze that supports upward price pressure.

Bearish Pressure from Derivatives Traders

Meanwhile, derivative traders have adopted a bearish stance, as reflected by key on-chain metrics:

  • Open Interest: Dropped by 8.03% to $255.58 million, signaling reduced confidence in long positions.

  • Liquidations: Long liquidations surged to $589.38K, reflecting losses for traders betting on a price rally.

  • Long-to-Short Ratio: Declined to 0.8822, indicating that short traders outnumber long traders, adding further bearish momentum.

This bearish dominance in the derivatives market puts additional pressure on APT's bullish trajectory.

APT's Next Move: Chart Analysis

On the charts, APT is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, a setup often preceding a significant price movement.

Potential scenarios include:

  1. Retest and Rebound: APT may retest the $11.52 support level before rebounding.

  2. Immediate Push Higher: The asset could aim directly for the $14.08 resistance zone.

Breaking through the $14.08 resistance would indicate strong bullish momentum, potentially leading to a 37.27% rally toward $19.37, a new monthly high. However, significant selling pressure at this level could trigger a minor pullback.

Outlook

The current dynamics favor spot traders, who are reducing APT's exchange supply and supporting price stability. For a sustained rally, bearish on-chain metrics in the derivatives market need to shift, allowing for renewed bullish momentum.

APT’s performance in the coming days will depend on whether spot traders can maintain control or if bearish derivatives pressure overwhelms the market.