Last night, I mentioned that $93,500 could be the peak for the next three months, and we’ve already seen a sharp decline in the market. It has broken $88,000 three times, with the lowest point hitting $87,000, yet there’s no strong buying interest at these levels. I still believe $93,500 may be the highest point for the next quarter, and here’s why:
1. Short-Term Bullish Sentiment: The market saw a surge of emotional bullish funds driven by figures like Trump and Musk. These funds are short-term and lack conviction. When the market rises, anyone can hold, but as soon as it starts falling, these funds will quickly exit, either by taking profits or cutting losses.
2. Profit-Taking Pressure: The market has already doubled from its recent lows below $50,000. Many investors will now start to take profits or at least recover their initial capital. Additionally, the short-term profit-taking orders from $68,000 are still present, but there’s no real market turnover to support the rise.
3. BlackRock’s Strategy: BlackRock and other large institutional players will likely stop buying above $90,000. If the market starts to decline, these ETFs may begin selling, adding downward pressure.
4. Global Market Decline: The global financial market has begun to fall sharply, and when this happens, negative news is often amplified, leading to increased panic in the crypto market.
5. Diminishing Buying Momentum: The market has been extremely bullish from $68,000 to $93,500, and most of the funds that wanted to enter have already done so. As buying interest weakens, profit-taking will likely turn into selling, intensifying downward pressure.
6. Uncertainty Around Trump’s Policies: Trump’s policies may support Bitcoin as a reserve currency, but there's a strong possibility of negative news or market manipulation to lower prices before any policies are introduced.
7. Large Long Positions: There are too many large long positions in the market, which could tempt the exchanges to trigger liquidations. Similar to how large short orders were wiped out, we could see the same happen with long positions.
8. Greedy Market Sentiment: The market is currently overly greedy, but with a clear downward trend starting to form, it shows that the buying power is exhausted in the short term.
In conclusion, it’s a time to take profits on long positions, and shorts may be safer for now. Avoid rushing to buy the bottom—there are plenty of opportunities in the market. If there’s no clear opportunity, wait. If it feels wrong, exit. The market is full of uncertainties, but the key is not to end up on the losing side.