Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, shared his perspective on bitcoin‘s trajectory in a blog post on Tuesday, arguing that despite recent price surges, the digital asset remains in its “early” stages until it reaches $500,000.
Hougan opened his analysis by noting, “It’s no longer the first inning. But until bitcoin hits $500K, it’s still early.” He highlighted bitcoin’s recent price milestone, showing a substantial 100% increase this year. Though he acknowledged the potential for price volatility, Hougan expressed optimism about further growth, writing: “The market may pull back by the time we publish — it’s come so far, so fast — but $100,000 feels like it could be right around the corner.” He assured that investors still have time to enter the market and experience gains in the long term.
The executive defined $500,000 as a crucial point for bitcoin’s maturity, saying:
In my view, $500K per coin is the correct demarcation between early and late, for a very simple reason: It marks the point where bitcoin would be ‘mature.’
This outlook is based on bitcoin’s potential to reach a status similar to that of gold in the store-of-value market. As bitcoin’s acceptance grows, Hougan envisions it gaining parity with gold, which has an $18 trillion market, compared to bitcoin’s current $2 trillion.
“So why $500K?” Hougan asked, explaining: “Today gold is an $18 trillion market, and bitcoin is roughly $2 trillion. That puts the store of value market at roughly $20 trillion. A mature bitcoin would at a minimum share this market equally with gold.”
The Bitwise executive further noted that there are roughly 20 million bitcoins in circulation, with one million more expected to be issued over the next century. He added that when bitcoin attains a valuation of $500,000 per coin, it would represent about half of the store-of-value market, equivalent to gold’s share, meaning that “Until then, it’s still early.”
Hougan also predicted even greater heights beyond this threshold, stating: “But ultimately I think we will go higher. My $500K target is based on bitcoin eating into gold’s market share, when, in reality, I think it will actually grow the overall market.” He suggested that the market may expand as governments increase debt and currency production, ultimately inflating the value of stores like bitcoin. Hougan concluded:
Could we see $1 million bitcoin? Higher? Absolutely. But $500K feels like a good start.
His comments reflect a belief in bitcoin’s transformative potential as institutional and governmental interest in cryptocurrency continues to rise, with indicators suggesting that a mature, stable role for bitcoin in the global economy is on the horizon.
