Donald Trump’s election win in the U.S. may not be “the main story” behind Bitcoin’s recent price surge, with an analyst pointing to a post-halving supply shock instead.
“If you’re wondering what’s happening with #Bitcoin… Yes, the incoming Bitcoin-friendly administration has provided a recent catalyst… But that’s not the main story here,” said Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, in a post on X on Nov. 11.
“The main story here is that we are 6+ months post-halving.”
The Bitcoin halving in April reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, creating a scarcity effect as fewer BTC are mined.
Myers explained that this has resulted in a supply shock, as “there’s not enough supply available at current prices to satisfy demand,” which will push the price up to achieve supply-demand equilibrium.
Bitcoin ETFs, introduced in January, have intensified this demand. On Nov. 11, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a record inflow, with around 13,940 BTC purchased in a single day, compared to only 450 BTC mined.
“The only way to do that is for the price to go higher, which will flywheel into mania and a bubble, but that’s how this thing works,” Myers noted.
He emphasized that while it may seem improbable to expect a predictable bubble every four years, the halving cycle leads to predictable post-halving price surges, as seen after halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
“Prices will go much higher,” Myers stated.
On-chain analyst James Check echoed these thoughts, comparing Bitcoin’s market cap to gold, which added $6 trillion over the last year but has “hundreds of billions of new and recycled supply coming to market.”
With Bitcoin’s $1.6 trillion market cap and absolute scarcity, Check predicted it would go higher.
American financier Anthony Scaramucci also weighed in, suggesting to those not already invested in Bitcoin, “It may feel like you missed it, but you didn’t. It’s early.”
He expects the U.S. to establish a Bitcoin reserve, which may inspire other countries and institutions to follow.
Currently, 94% of all Bitcoin are already in circulation or lost, leaving only about 1.2 million BTC to be mined, intensifying supply pressure.
