The hour of truth has finally arrived for the United States of America. Who will be the 47th president? Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Well, for some, it could be a moment of waiting, while for others, it’s a profit-or-loss scenario.
According to on-chain data from Polymarkets, there is a $3.2 billion bet staked on who will be the next president of America. Polymarket is just one of the betting sites that have accommodated American politics. More traders, defi or tradfi are edged to see their fate in the next few hours.
Polymarket data shows that Donald J. Trump leads with a 61.7% victory chance against Kamala Harris, who has a 38.3% odds of being POTUS. As polling stations close, Polymarket has released guidelines that bettors must adhere to.
The platform notes: “This Presidential market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.”
Source: Polymarket
Right now, there is a disparity in who will be president of America depending on where citizens outsource election victory data. Polymarket has made it clear that the bets will be closed for cash-out after the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate.
American citizens were left out of betting. According to reports, Polymarket blocked US traders following a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. CFTC said it was operating without the correct licensing.
America’s election and betting to close soon
Millions of Americans across the US are casting their votes as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris vie to become the next president. Trump says he’s “confident” as he casts his ballot in Florida, while Harris, who sent her own ballot by mail, urges people to “get out and vote.”
When will the world and America know the winner? It could take days—or it could be soon after the polls close. Most presidential elections this century had clear winners – Obama’s 2008 and 2012 victories were both announced before midnight Eastern time on polling day, Donald Trump won by 03:00 Eastern time the next morning in 2016, and George W Bush’s re-election was confirmed the day after the election in 2004.
However, there are two major exceptions.
It took nearly four days after polls closed on November 3, 2020, for US TV networks to declare Joe Biden the winner over Donald Trump once the Pennsylvania result was evident.
And in 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore’s campaigns clashed over a close race in Florida. The US Supreme Court voted to stop the state’s recount process, ensuring Bush’s victory.
Gore conceded on December 13, 36 days after the election. This election cycle could go either way. Currently, voting hours have been extended in Pennsylvania County after a software malfunction.
Source: X
A Pennsylvania state judge ordered Cambria County polls to remain open for an additional two hours, until 10 p.m. local time, due to a software issue affecting ballot-scanning machinery.
According to county officials, the incident caused voter confusion, with some leaving without casting a ballot and some places experiencing long queues.
Prediction markets could face ‘hornet’s nest’ if U.S. election is disputed
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, launched a contract the weekend before the United States presidential election to forecast who will be inaugurated as the next leader of the free world.
As per their market announcement, if betters would prefer to trade the market that is resolved solely by who gets inaugurated, set to happen on January 20, 2025, there was another bet put up.
Source: Polymarket
There is a slight difference between the “winner” contract, which Polymarket has listed since February, and the new “inauguration” contract. This difference displays a hurdle for prediction markets ahead of Today’s vote in a politically polarized, low-trust ecosystem.
What if the election results are uncertain soon after the polls close? Or, if they are apparent to one side, what if the alleged losing candidate contests them, as Donald Trump did four years ago, resulting in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot? Or if one candidate accepts but later withdraws, as Democrat Albert Gore did in 2000, resulting in a Supreme Court case?
If all three media stations that Polymarket is relying on provide different outcomes, the market will be resolved based on who is inaugurated.
Note that Polymarket’s new “inauguration” contract does not include press sources and will be resolved on January 20. If no one has been inaugurated by then, the deadline is pushed to January 31.
If no one has been inaugurated by then, both the Trump and Harris “yes” shares will be flipped to “no,” and “no” holders for both candidates will receive dividends, which would be an unprecedented scenario.
The present political heat has underlined the actuality of betting. The market resolve is not far.