With the U.S. election just one day away, recent polls reveal a near-even race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with both candidates locked in tight competition across seven crucial swing states. Although Harris has a slight lead over Trump in four newly released national polls, three other surveys indicate the race is a dead heat, underscoring the unpredictability of this election.
Harris vs. Trump Polling Breakdown
A HarrisX/Forbes poll, conducted from Wednesday to Friday, gives Harris a narrow lead at 49% to Trump's 48% among likely voters, with a margin of error of one point.
In a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, Harris leads by four points (51%-47%), while a Morning Consult survey released Sunday shows her with a two-point lead (49%-47%), also within a one-point margin of error.
The ABC/Ipsos poll places Harris three points ahead at 49%-46%, a slight shift from earlier polls that had her at 51%-47% last week and 50%-48% in early October.
On Sunday, both NBC News and Emerson College reported a 49%-49% tie between Harris and Trump, while a Yahoo News/YouGov survey also shows a 47%-47% stalemate.
Voter Uncertainty Remains High
The latest HarrisX/Forbes poll reveals that, although Harris leads Trump 49%-48% among likely voters, 16% of all registered voters and 10% of likely voters remain undecided.
In an Economist/YouGov poll, Harris leads Trump 49%-47%, with 2% undecided and 3% supporting other candidates. This is a slight decrease from her previous lead of 49%-46%.
The Cooperative Election Study, a large poll conducted by YouGov with nearly 50,000 participants, shows Harris leading 51%-47%, with 3% of respondents still unsure.
Other Notable Polls and Shifts
Additional polls indicate the candidates are closely matched. Harris leads by one point in polls by Reuters/Ipsos and CBS/YouGov, while recent surveys by The New York Times/Siena College, Emerson College, and CNN/SSRS all report a tie.
The Times poll, which previously had Harris ahead by 49%-46% in early October, shows a dip in her support.
Meanwhile, in a CNBC survey, Trump leads registered voters 48%-46% (margin of error 3.1), and a Wall Street Journal poll gives Trump a 47%-45% edge (margin of error 2.5), marking Trump’s strongest showing since August.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris initially gained a significant lead over Trump after her campaign announcement in July, but that lead has shrunk over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August.
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