TLDR:
Single French trader with financial background controls 4 Polymarket accounts
Combined bet of $28.6 million on Trump winning 2024 election
Additional $7 million bet on Trump winning popular vote
Polymarket found no evidence of market manipulation
Trader agreed not to open more accounts without notice
A single French trader has emerged as the force behind a massive $28.6 million bet favoring Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, using four separate accounts on the political betting platform Polymarket.
The trader, described by Polymarket as a French national with extensive trading experience and a financial services background, operated through accounts named Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. These accounts rank among the top five position holders betting on Trump’s success.
Funding for the trades came through a well-known centralized crypto exchange, identified by various sources as Kraken, a U.S.-based platform. Beyond the presidential win bet, the trader has placed an additional $7 million wagering that Trump will win the popular vote over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Polymarket conducted an investigation with third-party experts, including investigations firm Nardello & Company, into the trading activity. The platform found no evidence suggesting market manipulation or attempts to artificially influence betting odds.
The company released a statement explaining that the trader appears to be “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.” As a precautionary measure, the trader has agreed not to open additional accounts without prior notice to the platform.
The large bet has drawn attention as it contributed to a notable shift in Trump’s odds on the platform. This movement differs from national polling data, which currently shows a close race between Trump and Harris within the margin of error.
Some Trump supporters have pointed to the widening odds gap on Polymarket as an indicator of growing support for the former president. Elon Musk, a major financial supporter of Trump’s campaign, stated on his social media platform X that betting markets are “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
Polymarket has pushed back against this interpretation. The company emphasized that prediction markets measure event probability rather than voter intentions, unlike traditional polling methods. They described the confusion between these two metrics as responsible for misinformation about prediction market platforms.
The timing of these bets coincides with increased interest in political gambling markets during the 2024 election cycle. While Polymarket remains banned for U.S. traders following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, other platforms have entered the space.
Kalshi recently launched presidential election contracts after receiving approval from a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. Interactive Brokers has also introduced various political betting options.
The trader’s positions show current values of approximately $28.6 million in presidential election bets, according to Polymarket data. This includes both the main position on Trump’s victory and the separate bet on the popular vote outcome.
Market data shows Trump’s odds of victory at over 60 percent on Polymarket as of Thursday morning. Similar contracts on other platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi display slightly narrower spreads between Trump and Harris.
Polymarket currently operates without a primary regulator, having been barred from accepting U.S. bets since 2022. The company has expressed interest in returning to the U.S. market under proper regulatory oversight.
The platform maintains strict protocols for market integrity. Their investigation of the French trader’s accounts involved collaboration with external experts to ensure compliance with platform rules and detect any potential market manipulation.
Despite the size of the positions, Polymarket reports that the trader’s strategy involved spreading out relatively small bets on Trump’s odds, suggesting an approach focused on building a position rather than suddenly impacting market prices.
The revelation of this large trading position comes as political betting markets take on increased prominence in election forecasting, though experts caution against treating them as substitutes for traditional polling methods.
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