Ethereum's price target for 2030 drops to $7,334 as Layer 2 networks claim more transaction revenue, signaling major market shifts.
With Ethereum's projected revenue falling to $26,753, tokenholders may see reduced returns at $22,512 by 2030.
The competitive landscape changes as Ethereum's market share holds steady at 70%, but L2 networks challenge its revenue growth.
Ethereum’s price forecast has undergone a shift as Layer 2 (L2) networks claim more transaction revenue than expected. Matthew Sigel, a notable financial analyst, highlights this development, revealing a 10:90 split in favor of L2s over Ethereum.
Analysts first expected that 90% of L2 transaction revenue would go to Ethereum which reduces Ethereum's projected price target for 2030 by two-thirds, casting doubt on the long-term value of the coin.
https://twitter.com/matthew_sigel/status/1846959423765242050 L2 Networks Impact Ethereum's Future Valuation
The new Ethereum model highlights important market metrics and suggests that the network’s smart contract dominance will remain strong at 70% through 2030. Besides, Ethereum’s projected revenue has dropped from $79,491 to $26,753, mainly driven by the increasing revenue share of L2 solutions. Consequently, Ethereum tokenholders will experience reduced value, with returns expected at $22,512 in 2030, reflecting market shifts.
Moreover, global crypto tax rates and validator cuts are expected to stay at 15% and 1%, respectively, maintaining a stable framework. The overall free cash flow (FCF) yield sits at 7%, but the real yield has dipped slightly to 6%. These fundamental adjustments reflect the growing competition between Ethereum and L2 networks.
Long-Term Market Metrics Reflect Adjusted Price Target
However, Ethereum’s price forecast has shifted significantly. Its fair discounted value (FDV) now stands at $750,431 under the revised metrics, compared to the original $2.2 million projection. Hence, the adjusted 2030 price target for Ethereum is $7,334, a reduction from the earlier projection of $22,281.
Besides, the supply of Ethereum by 2030 is projected to reach 102.32 units, while today’s price sits at $3,317. These revised numbers indicate that although Ethereum continues to be the leading player, the emergence of L2 solutions may limit its long-term growth.
Though the emergence of Layer 2 networks may cause Ethereum's growth to be slower than anticipated, the future of the platform is still bright. The shifting revenue dynamics and new price targets highlight a changing landscape for Ethereum, requiring closer attention to future market developments.
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