Bitcoin’s price has gained 10% in the last week.
It briefly traded above $68,200 on Friday ― its highest price since late July.
It’s been a rocky climb. In the last three months, Bitcoin’s price chart has looked like a heart monitor ― up one week, down the next.
Still, experts say Bitcoin could be primed for an advance by year-end.
Here are the clues they say reveal the bigger picture for Bitcoin this year.
The election
Market observers once cast the upcoming US presidential elections as a source of uncertainty for Bitcoin’s price.
That’s changed.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, wrote in a research note last week that either a Donald Trump win or a Kamala Harris victory would favour Bitcoin.
“While a Trump victory is extremely likely to be positive for cryptos ― particularly altcoins ― we view a Harris administration as likely to be equal or slightly better than the Biden administration.”
Thorn’s not alone.
The market is also pricing in those odds.
Republican candidate Trump holds a commanding lead over Vice President Harris on crypto betting platform Polymarket.
Meanwhile, polls cast Harris slightly ahead.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto fund manager Bitwise, said that investor hesitancy over the election is giving way to FOMO ― fear of missing out.
“There is a lot of dry powder on the sidelines,” Hougan wrote in a blog this week. “As soon as we get any whiff of clarity [concerning the election], I think we go higher fast.”
Hougan predicted that any outcome besides a Democrat sweep of the White House and Congress would push Bitcoin to a new peak above $80,000 this year.
Institutional interest
Bitcoin’s price rally this week coincided with “flowmageddon” of almost $1 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs in only two days.
Alice Liu, research head at crypto data provider CoinMarketCap, said the massive ETF flows this week indicate a shift in institutional perspective about Bitcoin.
Liu told DL News that institutional players are beginning to see Bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than a speculative one.
“Large companies and asset managers have started integrating Bitcoin into their investment portfolios or treasuries, which gives Bitcoin more legitimacy and reduces its perceived risk as a fringe investment.”
Bitcoin ETFs increase Bitcoin’s addressable market reach to a new set of actors ― wealth advisors.
Thorn estimated that wealth managers affiliated with banks and brokerages manage $39 trillion and a chunk of that sum will likely flow into Bitcoin via spot ETFs.
Wall Street majors Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley revealed last summer that they hold a combined $600 million in Bitcoin ETFs.
‘Santa rally’
According to Thorn, Bitcoin’s sideways price progression has formed a strong base for an upward move in the year’s last quarter.
The expectation is further supported by what David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and former forex trader Chris Mills are calling a “Goldilocks phase” for the US economy that could trigger a Bitcoin surge.
Brickell and Mills argued that Bitcoin could experience a “Santa rally ‘melt up.’”
Risks
Still, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, told DL News that some technological risks for Bitcoin still exist.
“The threat of hacking and security breaches is still significant, as a successful attack on an exchange or wallet could result in substantial financial losses, shaking investor confidence.”
Over $1.1 billion have been lost in hacks targeting crypto entities this year, according to DefiLlama’s data.
Other risks include geopolitical tensions and supply overhangs such as governments selling seized Bitcoin.
This summer, Germany’s $2.3 billion sale caused a 25% Bitcoin price slump.
The US government holds more than $13 billion in seized Bitcoin.
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. To share tips or information about stories, please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.
