LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. non-farm payrolls increased 254K in September, much higher than the expected 150K. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in September, lower than the estimated 4.1%.
Middle East tensions have intensified between Iran and Israel after Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, and Iran responded by launching 181 ballistic missiles at Israel, marking the largest strike in the ongoing conflict.
Bitwise filed first application for XRP ETF.
Grayscale introduced the Aave fund.
Coinbase to delist USDT in the EU over non-compliance.
HBO's upcoming documentary claims to have uncovered the identity of BTC's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Currently, Len Sassaman leads the betting market.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY
DXY rebounded from the lows, which correlated with BTC’s first dip since breaking the macro downtrend. If DXY consolidates/ slows down, $BTC likely makes the first higher lower in anticipation of a real trend reversal.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX
As mentioned last week, it would likely be ranging if VIX didn’t drop back into the sub-14 area. With the Middle East tension rising, VIX saw yet another pop into the 21 together with DXY strength, creating pressure on Crypto and Equities alike.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW
BTC made its first higher high, and if this 61k retest can become a higher low, the market will have a real reversal on the cards.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW
$ETH is still stuck between 2.4k and 2.7k. The market is still anticipating ETH's real outperformance over BTC.
ETH/BTC
ETH/BTC is still trying to reverse, although very sluggish. If it breaks lows here again, 0.03 is likely on the table next. If not, it could start forming a proper higher time frame reversal.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH
Alts are at the same spot as BTC, trying to make a higher low after breaking the previous high.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH
TOTAL3/BTC is trying to break out of the compressed range again. The complete structure of TOTAL3/BTC has been building since November 2023. If this now finally breaks upwards, the real alt season likely happens.
SUMMARY
ALT/BTC continues to show strength, with TOTAL3/BTC being on the brink of a macro reversal.
ETH ETF inflows are finally picking up fast after the first rate cut. So far, the price is still not reflecting any real outperformance.
