Fresh off the Singapore TOKEN2049 parties, Cryptopolitan had the opportunity to chat with BitMEX and Maelstrom founder Arthur Hayes to gauge the markets.
We asked him when he thinks Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high, and he gave us a pretty confident prediction, saying:
“In October. Before the election.”
Arthur sees a vacuum of power in the United States, as the losing side won’t accept the results – whoever they are.
And that kind of chaos is bullish for Bitcoin, according to him. He believes the liquidity situation will be very good leading up to November 5th.
Why the Maelstrom Bitcoin developer is important
We wanted to dig into the vision behind the Maelstrom Bitcoin Developer Grant. Arthur started the grant at BitMEX years ago to support on-chain developers.
“We’re all recipients of Satoshi’s white paper,” he said with a laugh. He is the type of man who apparently believes that those who profit from crypto should give back.
This grant was his own way of doing that. He believes a strong Bitcoin network is essential.
“Bitcoin is the hardest money ever created. Its security is too important.”
We then asked him about the first recipient of the grant, Rkrux. What stood out about him? Humorously, Arthur confessed he’s not the one who reviews the applications.
“Jonathan Beer, who runs BitMEX Research, vets all the applicants,” he said. Arthur mentioned that others were impressed with Rkrux’s work and dedication.
They didn’t want the same kind of people getting grants.
“We want to encourage anyone who has the technical abilities to contribute to Bitcoin core.”
But Arthur doesn’t want to ever influence the direction of Bitcoin development. “I have some opinions,” he said, but he doesn’t want to push his personal views onto the network.
He told us that he believes in letting grantees work on what fits the network best.
Meme coins and Arthur’s obsession with MOTHER
The conversation then moved to something Arthur’s been all over lately — meme coins. We asked why he’s so interested in Iggy Azalea’s MOTHER. Arthur said, “It’s meme coin season.”
He pointed out that the Fed, the ECB, and China have all cut interest rates. He expects a fiscal “bazooka” soon.
“We have a very positive liquidity environment, and meme coins are the most levered to that.”
He loves MOTHER because the team behind it, led by Iggy, is genuinely involved. They’re not just in it for a quick pump-and-dump.
He also commends Iggy for being pro-sex and not being afraid of making crypto fun, and entertaining.
“She threw a big party in Singapore, got on stage, and talked at various conferences.”
When he started buying, the market cap was around $70 million. He thinks it could go much higher because of her reach and long-term commitment.
He’s not a fan of celebrities who launch coins and disappear, like Caitlyn Jenner and Jason Derulo.
The Fed and Bitcoin
And of course we asked about the Federal Reserve. Arthur is known for sharing his opinions on monetary policy and its effect on markets.
He thinks Janet Yellen will keep printing money, no matter who’s in the Oval. It’ll inevitably drive up inflation and make Bitcoin surge. He doesn’t see any politician making the hard choices.
“They could solve the underlying problem, or paper it over with printed money,” he said. Arthur’s betting on the latter.
He’s convinced that both the U.S. and China will keep printing money.
“At the end of the day, it’s a fractional fiat banking system that prints money.”
Until politicians quite literally change how they enact policies, he believes the only answer is more printed money. And that means Bitcoin, in fiat terms, has nowhere to go but up.
It’s a simple equation for him.
Then we asked about Trump. What if he wins? Arthur thinks the market will initially rise, expecting him to remain pro-crypto. But he admits that’s misplaced hope.
“During his four years in office, he did nothing to advance crypto in the United States,” Arthur said. He doesn’t think Trump will be any different this time.
There’s also Congress to consider. “If the Democrats take the Senate and the House, Trump’s rhetoric will be empty,” he said.
To round up our interview, Arthur made it clear he doesn’t give financial advice. However, he did tell us what Maelstrom holds.
“On the meme coin side, obviously MOTHER, PEPE, and MOG. I tweeted about them just now” he said, though he called them fun trading positions, not huge.
Bullish on Aptos
When it comes to altcoins, he’s more serious. He’s very bullish on Aptos. He’s an investor and advisor.
Arthur believes Aptos will overtake Solana as the number two layer-1 blockchain in the next two to three years. He said, “I continue to stand by that.”
He’s also excited about Aether, an AI hardware company that uses NVIDIA’s H100 or H1000 chips for enterprise solutions.
People can run Aether nodes to verify computations in a decentralized manner. “We have a large position and are advisors to that as well,” he said.
Then we asked the big question. Which is better, Ethereum or Solana? Arthur didn’t hesitate. “Ethereum,” he said almost immediately.
His metric? Developer count. “Ethereum is clearly winning in that respect,” he told me.
As someone who does a lot of early-stage investing in token projects, Arthur knows that real game-changing innovations launch on Ethereum first.
And then Solana will copy it, sometimes poorly too. He believes Solana is good at building a community, but real innovation happens on Ethereum.
He rattled off examples. Uniswap, derivative DEXes, NFTs, — all launched on Ethereum first. He doesn’t see Solana ever actually catching up, but he acknowledged its strength.
“The memecoin phenomenon is testament to that,” he said.
Before we said goodbye, he repeated that he doesn’t think Trump will actually change anything for crypto, but he knows the market will react to the possibility if he were to win.
And no matter who wins, remember, the money printers will keep running. That’s what makes him so sure about his investments.
“They don’t want austerity or balanced budgets,” he said. Arthur sees Bitcoin as a hedge against all that.
