Crypto betting platform Polymarket has received mainstream attention as betting pools on the United States presidential elections have helped the platform surpass $1 billion in volume.
Polymarket allows individuals to anonymously create market betting pools on almost any event, with outcomes determined in a binary “yes” or “no” format. While most users focus on straightforward bets, a subset of investors gravitate toward more unorthodox wagers.
As election day approaches and crypto policies become a prominent topic in the campaign, a wide range of wagers related to politicians and crypto policies are on the rise. These bets range from conventional political predictions to humorous and bizarre speculations.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Former president Donald Trump is no stranger to personal branding across an eclectic range of products — from gold sneakers to Trump steaks and even a Trump-endorsed Bible.
He is now positioning himself as the “pro-crypto” candidate and has hinted at the potential launch of a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform called World Liberty Financial (WLFI).
Since its inception, the Trump crypto project has remained a mystery. In a Sept. 16 X Spaces event, Zak Folkman, an entrepreneur involved with the Trump-endorsed crypto project, said that “there will be a token.”
Some 80% of the betting pool on Polymarket believed there woudl be a token launch before the election.
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Source: Polymarket
Some people in the crypto industry have been worried about the launch of a DeFi platform or a token before the elections.
Nic Carter, a prominent figure in the Bitcoin space and co-founder at Castle Island Ventures, believes the launch of WLFI prior to elections could only have a negative implications for Trump’s presidential candidacy.
is there something that we, as crypto twitter, can collectively do to stop the launch of world liberty coin? i think it genuinely damages trump's electoral prospects, especially if it gets hacked (it'll be the juiciest DeFi target ever and it's forked from a protocol that itself…
— nic carter (@nic__carter) September 4, 2024
Trump is an unpredictable figure who, in the past, has launched products that were risky for his public image, as he did with the new launch of his NFT collection on Aug. 27.
President Trump announces his NEW Digital Trading Cards- America First. Buy just 15 cards and get a piece of his “KNOCKOUT” Debate Suit. Buy just 75 cards or more and have a Gala Dinner with the President!
Don't Miss Out! https://t.co/vrpHbxyrFG pic.twitter.com/TUYFLLD76f
— CollectTrumpCards (@CollectTrump) August 27, 2024
Will Trump mention the MAGA coin before the US elections?
Many Polymarket bets revolve around whether a political candidate mentions a specific keyword.
The conditions for this bet to resolve depend upon whether Donald Trump will mention the ticker of the Trump-themed Ethereum memecoin MAGA, either verbally or in a post before the US elections.
As the elections approach, bettors seem increasingly pessimistic that Trump will publicly mention the token.
Will Trump mention $MAGA before Election? Source: Polymarket
However, the possibility of Trump mentioning the memecoin isn’t unrealistic, as Trump has actively engaged with the public during crypto events, often fielding open questions.
Savvy individuals might strategically frame their inquiries to elicit a mention of the memecoin, as the only condition to resolve the bet for a yes is that Trump explicitly uses the term MAGA in relation to the cryptocurrency.
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump?
During a visit to the Shanksville Volunteer Fire Department in Pennsylvania, President Joe Biden joked with the crowd when he saw someone wearing a red Trump cap. Surprisingly, Biden placed the hat over his own.
Days before, on Sept. 11, a user created a crazy wager of whether Biden would endorse his former rival for the US presidential candidacy. Unsurprisingly, despite the well-known video going viral, virtually no one is betting yes.
Will Joe Biden endorse Donald Trump? Source: Polymarket
Despite numerous social media accounts thanking Biden for “supporting” Trump, the bet won’t resolve until Biden announces that he will endorse or vote for Trump. The odds to settle the wager are so low that a bet for $100 currently offers a potential return of approximately $5,280.
Will Joe Biden pardon Sam Bankman-Fried?
Since April 1, a user has placed a wager on whether Biden would offer a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve for any crime for which Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried was convicted in defrauding FTX and Alameda investors.
Presidential pardons are somewhat of a tradition for an outgoing president, whose administration oversees the Justice Department.
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Bankman-Fried was once highly regarded in both the crypto industry and traditional financial circles. He also boasted notable connections in US politics.
In the 2020 US presidential campaign, Bankman-Fried was one of the largest individual donors to Joe Biden, contributing $5.2 million. The political influence Bankman-Fried gathered underscored his rising prominence as he bridged the worlds of crypto and politics.
Bankman-Fried donated to both political parties, but Democrats received 92% of the total donations. After FTX’s collapse, there has been public scrutiny of these donations, with some Republican figures calling for the Biden administration to clarify its stance on returning the contributions. However, no official action has been taken on that front.
Will Biden pardon SBF? Source: Polymarket
With elections coming up, this move would be a scandal and confirm many conspiracy theories; therefore, unsurprisingly, no one is betting that Bankman-Fried will receive a get-out-of-jail-free card.
Will Trump win and nominate RFK Jr. to his Cabinet?
Until August, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was running for president as an Independent, offering pro-crypto policies much before Trump shifted his position on Bitcoin.
On Aug. 23, he announced that he would drop out of the presidential race and, shortly after, said that he would support Trump’s presidency.
During a rally in Arizona, Trump praised RFK Jr. as a “phenomenal” and “brilliant” rival and promised to release the JFK assassination documents if elected.
Additionally, Trump floated the possibility of offering RFK Jr. a cabinet-level position or other senior role in areas related to health or medical issues. However, no formal agreements have emerged.
Trump wins and nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? wager progress. Source: Polymarket
The betting pool grew to 18% as RFK Jr.’s inclusion in Trump’s cabinet seemed a tangible possibility; however, since the event, enthusiasm has faded.
For this market to resolve “yes,” Trump must win the 2024 elections and nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Cabinet by Jan. 31, 2025, 11:59 pm ET.
Will the US government have Bitcoin reserves in 2024?
In July, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has even introduced a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill, directing the US federal government to start a reserve fund for the scarce decentralized asset.
Bitcoin and digital assets are the future. Here’s my agenda:
✅ No retail Central Bank Digital Currencies
✅Clear protections for self-custody Bitcoin wallets
✅Restore Dollar Dominance for the 21st Century pic.twitter.com/yEy9tcxU5b
— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) July 12, 2024
Since Lummis introduced the proposal, a user has opened a betting pool in Polymarket to speculate whether the US will have Bitcoin reserves in 2024.
US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024? wager progress Source: Polymarket
The Strategic Reserve bill would permit the US to buy $1 million BTC, 5% of the total supply, and hold it for at least 20 years. The bill would only permit using the Bitcoin reserve to reduce US debt. The bill produced an active, enthusiastic response, with over 2,200 letters sent to US Senators requesting they co-sponsor and support it.
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However, amid the presidential elections, legislative attention is elsewhere.
At a Georgetown University event on Tuesday, Sept. 17, hosted by the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, Lummis announced plans to push forward the crypto legislative bill after the November elections.
Lummis emphasized her urgency to begin the process swiftly, stating she wants to act before early 2025 due to the heavy legislative workload expected next year. She expressed concerns that if delayed, the bill might not be revisited until late 2025, underscoring the importance of addressing crypto regulation promptly.
Unless there is a miracle, this betting pool seems to have a high probability that it won’t be fulfilled, at least for 2024.