Global HFT firm, Wintermute, will collaborate with Chaos Labs to launch their new prediction platform, Outcome Market. The platform’s first tokens will be focused on candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, launching just six weeks before the US Presidential election.
The algorithmic trading firm Wintermute will join Polymarket in the crypto prediction market, launching its new Outcome Market in partnership with Chaos Labs.
Wintermute will use Chaos Labs’ edge proofs Oracle in the new tokens feature
The platform will have TRUMP and HARRIS tokens as its first offerings, betting on the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election.
In a September 17 post, Wintermute announced it was on track to developing a permissionless smart contract for the new US presidential election prediction market. The use of permissionless contact means any trading venue can offer the tokens without charging minting or transaction fees.
The newly created market will also be accessible on Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum and will use Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle to ensure accurate data transfer across chains.
According to Omer Goldberg, CEO of Chaos Labs, the firm has incorporated AI and LLMs into its market to allow for precise, tamper-resistant data feeds and real-time risk assessment within its protocol. He added that Edge’s design also guarantees smooth transmission of price, risk, and evidence of diverse information across ecosystems, bolstering trust and stability in prediction markets.
Wintermute’s CEO, Evgeny Gaevoy, commented:
Once launched, users can participate directly from their native blockchain ecosystems, removing barriers to entry and improving accessibility, making it easier and more efficient for everyone to get involved. The tokens will be usable in DeFi applications and listed on multiple trading venues, significantly expanding their utility and setting a new standard for how prediction markets operate.
– Evgeny Gaevoy
Trading venues Bebop, WOO X, and Backpack plan to have the new TRUMP and HARRIS tokens on their platforms.
Willy Chuang, COO of WOO X, even commented, citing the relevance of decentralized smart contracts and how excited their company is to support them. He added that by building a market for these tokens, they will “empower” their users to trade fairly.
CFTC intensifies scrutiny as Polymarket faces a ban on election betting
Polymarket’s prediction market stirred U.S. legislators, who argued that it operated an illegal, unregistered platform for trading contracts tied to real-world events. In 2022, Polymarket agreed to restrict its contract and token use in the US. However, the platform still operates outside US markets and has over 1 million wages in relation to the US election.
In August 2024, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed interest in banning prediction market tokens in the country. The CFTC issued an order to halt Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the commission, from accepting bets on the U.S. presidential election. Although a court later overturned this order, allowing Kalshi to resume its operations, the situation took a turn when the court granted stays, which prevented the market from progressing with any election betting until the case was resolved.
According to CEO Gaevoy, the trading venues will decide how to deal with the U.S. markets. However, he noted that he is already aware that most if not all, do not accept U.S. crypto users.