Dogecoin (DOGE), the leading meme coin, has faced several challenges over the past few months. Its price has been steadily declining due to low trading volumes and fading market interest. However, a group of optimistic DOGE futures traders remains resilient, betting on a potential rally despite the bearish outlook.
DOGE Traders Stay Optimistic
Dogecoin has been trading within a falling wedge pattern since March, a formation where the asset’s price trends between two downward-sloping lines. The upper trend line acts as resistance, while the lower trend line serves as support. Typically, this pattern is considered bullish, as the price is expected to break above the upper trend line and continue rising. However, increased selling activity has prevented DOGE from achieving this breakout.
Despite the fact that DOGE has lost nearly half its value over the last six months, many futures traders are undeterred and continue to open long positions. This optimism is reflected in Dogecoin’s consistently positive funding rate since June. In perpetual futures contracts, a positive funding rate indicates that more traders are betting on a price rally than those expecting a decline. As of press time, DOGE’s funding rate stands at 0.01%.
Whale Activity Shows a Bearish Trend
While futures traders remain hopeful, DOGE whales—holders with large amounts of the coin—have been selling off their holdings. According to data from IntoTheBlock, DOGE’s large holders’ netflow, which tracks the difference between coins bought and sold by whales, has dropped by 47% in the past 90 days. This decline signals that large holders are offloading their DOGE, a bearish indicator that could lead to additional selling pressure from retail investors.
Dogecoin Price Prediction: The Last Dip?
From a technical standpoint, Dogecoin is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the one-day chart. When an asset is below this key indicator, it suggests that selling pressure is outpacing buying activity. If this trend continues, DOGE could fall further, potentially reaching the lower boundary of its falling wedge at around $0.085, which serves as a key support level.
If this support holds, Dogecoin may see a reversal in its downward trend. In that case, the price could rally toward the upper boundary of the falling wedge at $0.110. Breaking through this critical resistance level could trigger a significant 40% breakout, pushing DOGE’s price to $0.142.
While whale activity suggests caution, the falling wedge pattern and positive funding rates indicate that a price rally may still be possible, especially if key support levels hold strong.
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