**Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expected as Inflation Eases and Job Market Slows**
Recent data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on Wednesday, indicates a moderation in inflation, though it still exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Coupled with noticeable softening in the job market, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged to almost 95%.
The CPI report for June revealed a greater-than-expected cooling in prices, which has bolstered market expectations for a possible reduction in interest rates this year. Despite the stronger-than-anticipated Producer Price Index (PPI) figures released on Friday, confidence remains high. CME’s Fed Watch tool now shows a nearly 95% chance of a September rate cut.
The Federal Reserve, focused on achieving price stability and full employment, may opt to ease monetary policy if the job market continues to weaken while inflation remains above the 2% target. The June CPI data reflected a 3% annual inflation rate, and the unemployment rate had risen to 4.1% in June, up from 3.8% in March. John Leer from Morning Consult noted that although the labor market is cooling, it is still robust by historical standards, making the Fed's potential achievement of a "soft landing" a challenging but significant goal.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the slowing job market during his Capitol Hill testimony, mentioning that it no longer exerts significant inflationary pressure. Fitch Ratings’ Olu Sonola proposed that the Fed might act sooner on rate cuts due to the balanced risks between rising unemployment and inflation. Conversely, Markus Thielen from 10x Research warned that rate cuts may not be as beneficial for markets as anticipated, suggesting that investors might shift away from riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies, towards safer investments.