According to Cointelegraph: While some analysts are forecasting a potential surge for Solana (SOL) to as high as $1,000, network data suggests that a more realistic target is around $190. Solana’s native token, SOL, last surpassed the $190 mark on July 29, even after gaining an impressive 33.5% following its retest of the $110 level on August 5. Despite this rally, SOL hit strong resistance at the $150 level, causing some analysts to draw parallels with Ether’s 2020 price movements, which eventually led to an all-time high.

Crypto trader and technical analyst Kaleo has pointed out that SOL’s current pattern resembles Ether’s momentum before its massive 245% surge past its previous all-time high in 2021. This has fueled speculation that SOL could reach $1,000 by 2025. However, while setting such ambitious targets is not inherently flawed, the short-term on-chain metrics for Solana indicate a decline in activity—hardly the precursor to a bull run.

If SOL were to reach $1,000, its market capitalization would exceed $500 billion—a feat that Ether only managed for less than 40 days during the peak of the late 2021 cycle. To put this into perspective, only 18 publicly listed companies worldwide have valuations over $500 billion, making such a scenario improbable, even for highly profitable entities like Costco, Procter & Gamble, and Bank of America.

From a fundamental analysis perspective, SOL reaching $1,000 seems highly unlikely. However, a rally to $300—representing a 104% gain from its current $147 level—is not out of the question. Several factors support this outlook, including multiple Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications currently awaiting regulatory approval in the United States. Although the chances of approval are slim, these efforts set Solana apart from its competitors.

Moreover, Solana overtook BNB Chain in 2024 to become the second-largest blockchain by total value locked (TVL), with $4.8 billion in deposits. While this pales in comparison to Ethereum’s $48.8 billion TVL, it is enough to foster competition in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes. For instance, Solana’s DEX aggregate turnover over the past seven days reached $9.4 billion, close to Ethereum’s $10.8 billion.

Solana vs. Ethereum Layer-2 Tokens: A Comparison

Despite lower fees on Solana compared to Ethereum’s average $1.80 transaction fee, users on Solana often face comparable costs due to a high rate of failed transactions and maximal extractable value (MEV). Over the past week, Ethereum’s network fees totaled $13.7 million, while Solana’s reached $8.4 million.

However, comparing Solana directly to Ethereum’s base layer might be misleading given the differences in centralization and fee structures. A more apt comparison would be to Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem. According to Blockspace analytics firm growthepie.xyz, Ethereum’s layer-2 networks hold $9.7 billion in stablecoin deposits—exceeding the combined totals of Solana and BNB Chain.

Additionally, the number of active addresses on Ethereum’s layer-2 networks nearly matches Solana’s 1.6 million over a seven-day period. The combined fully diluted valuation of Ethereum’s layer-2 tokens—including Optimism (OP), Arbitrum (ARB), Polygon (MATIC), Mantle (MNT), and others—totals $31 billion, making it over 60% less expensive than Solana’s $85 billion total valuation.

While Solana’s reliance on airdrops and memecoin launches might drive short-term demand for SOL during retail-driven rallies, this strategy seems unsustainable for long-term growth. However, the success of projects like Helium, Jupiter, and the PayPal USD stablecoin on Solana suggests that a path to $190 for SOL remains open, even if it faces stiff competition from Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions.

In conclusion, while the dream of a $1,000 SOL may be far-fetched, the $190 target is within reach, provided Solana continues to build on its network fundamentals and withstands the competition from Ethereum’s growing layer-2 ecosystem.