This is a continuation of my previous post covering the Mean Exchange Inflow Sell Signal. To recap, a successful sell signal occurs when BTC price declines by more than 1% within 48 hours after the Mean Exchange Inflow metric (Spot Exchange) crosses above 7 on the hourly chart.

For this update, we will cover Q1 2024, but specifically the post Spot BTC ETF launch period, to see how the sell signal performed with ETFs trading now.

Between January 10th to March 31st 2024, a total of 33 sell signals flashed. 31 out of 33 sell signals were successful, resulting in BTC declining more than 1% within 48 hours of the signal flashing, with a success rate of 93.9%.

The average decline across all 33 sell signals came in at -3.2% while the average decline for the 31 successful sell signals came in at -3.38%.

The largest decline recorded during the Q1 2024 period came in at -9.73%, which occurred on March 5th, 2024. The range of declines for successful sell signals was between -1.05% to -9.73%.

10 out of 33 or 30.3% of the sell signals came in between -1.05% to -1.95%.

The charts below marked with vertical dashed lines show when the sell signals occurred.

In reference to the previous post, from 2017 to January 2024, the Mean Exchange Sell Signal averaged a success rate of 87.69% compared to Q1 2024 coming in at 93.9%. It’s good to see an improvement in accuracy especially with Spot BTC ETF’s launching during the recorded period.

I would like to note, the average decline across successful and unsuccessful signals from 2017 to January 2024 was -5.5% while Q1 2024 came in at -3.2%. Considering the periods analyzed, its not surprising to see, given Bitcoin has matured as an asset class, especially with institutions starting to allocate to Bitcoin through Spot ETFs.

We should expect Bitcoin volatility to decline over the years as Bitcoin grows in market cap and as more institutions and eventually sovereigns allocate to Bitcoin.

Written by DanBTC916