$BTC 🔴 The positive trend for gold is in line with current market movements and our vision.. 📊
• However, it is necessary to consider possible setbacks that affect the price of gold in the short and medium term:
-The price of gold has risen over $850 since the October 2023 lows, so profit taking should come as no surprise.
- An actual “soft landing” may put pressure on the price of gold as investors shift their money from safe investments to riskier ones.
- The continuation of the cycle of raising interest rates in the United States, with a sustained increase in real economic growth.
- Return to a phase of low inflation similar to the phase of the Great Moderation.
- High gold prices have begun to affect physical demand, especially in price-sensitive markets such as India. In addition, recycling supplies have already reacted, for example, in the United States.
In China, easing growth concerns, which should be accompanied by much stronger political support for the real estate sector, may reduce demand for gold.
- A collapse in stock markets or a significant worsening of the (commercial) real estate crisis may lead to the liquidation of gold (see 2008). The fact that gold is very liquid is a disadvantage in such exceptional situations.
- Momentum players such as CTAs, managed futures funds and hedge funds will liquidate long positions in the event of dips or signs of a rally changing.
- China devalues the renminbi against the US dollar. This strengthens the US dollar and may weaken the price of gold in US dollars, but not necessarily in many other currencies.
-De-escalation or sustainable resolution of geopolitical conflicts, for example. Between Russia and Ukraine or between Israel on the one hand and Hamas and Iran on the other hand, it could affect the price of gold.
