In the past 24 hours, BTC has continued to benefit from positive news from traditional markets. Trump has chosen pro-crypto Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate for the presidential campaign, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink acknowledged Bitcoin’s financial value in an interview, marking a significant shift from his previous skepticism. Additionally, ETF flows continued, with approximately $300 million entering the digital currency market in one day.

However, as the Bitcoin community celebrated the price challenging the $65,000 mark, Arkham data revealed that a Mt. Gox wallet address transferred 0.021 BTC to what appears to be a new address, possibly as a test transaction. This sudden market sentiment shift caused the price to briefly drop below $62,500. After the initial panic subsided, it rebounded to around $63,500, settling back to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands.

Source: TradingView

Although the Mt. Gox transfer was just a small test, options market traders quickly anticipated potential future sell-off uncertainties. This led to a 4% increase in the implied volatility (IV) of BTC for mid to long-term options, narrowing the gap with ETH.

Source: SignalPlus

From ETH’s perspective, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed the approval dates for several spot Ethereum ETFs from July 18 to July 23, continuing the trend of previous delays. Despite this, the community remains optimistic, believing that regulatory acceptance of crypto products is increasing and expecting significant capital inflows into the digital currency market. Consequently, the implied volatility (IV) for ETH options expiring at the end of July and early August rose by about 2%. Notable options strategies in the block market, such as the 26JUL24 3600/3800 Long Call Spread (3100 ETH per leg) and Buy 2Aug 3700-C vs. Sell 30Aug24 4000-C (7375 ETH per leg), reflect a positive outlook for short-term price gains.

Source: Twitter

Source: Deribit （As of 16 JUL 8: 00 UTC）

Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Transactions

Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTC Transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade