$BTC Market Outlook for the Week of July 8, 2024
Bitcoin experienced a significant drop of over 10.5% last week, falling to around $57,000. The lowest point reached was $53,550, driven by concerns over the
Mt. Gox's reimbursement of 140,000 BTC and the German government’s liquidation of seized Bitcoin. This led to a market-wide loss of over $170 billion in market capitalization.according to Coin Gecko data, pushing the market sentiment into extreme fear.
Bitcoin bulls managed to recover some ground, with the latest daily close at $58,250, just below the target of $58,450.German Government BTC Movements The German government has been actively selling Bitcoin, which has added to the market’s bearish sentiment. They still hold over 40,000 BTC, worth more than $2 billion. Recently, their wallets received 1,915 BTC ($111.5M) from addresses linked to Kraken and Coinbase. This morning, 1,047.4 BTC ($57.2M) was moved out, with 547.4 BTC ($30.1M) going to Flow Traders.
Bullish Indicators
U.S. Interest Rate Cuts: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the weak job market is generally bullish for Bitcoin and other riskier assets.Spot Bitcoin ETFs: There has been a resumption of inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs after two days of outflows, with the largest net inflows in a month totaling $143.1 million.
Mining Activity
The Bitcoin hash rate has dropped by 7.7%, reaching a four-month low of 576 EH/s. This decline indicates that some miners are scaling back operations, reflecting financial stress within the mining community post-halving.Price Analysis Historical market cycles show that Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce the supply of new Bitcoins, typically precede periods of price expansion lasting 12 to 18 months. The last halving occurred on April 19, 2024, so the historical time frames for price expansion have yet to pass. Analyst Peter Brandt has identified a bearish pattern, the bear flag, and marked $44,000 as a potential bottom price level.
