According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 22.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%.