Marilyn vos Savant, celebrated for her record-breaking IQ of 228, ignited one of the most controversial debates in mathematical history with her solution to the Monty Hall Problem in 1990. Her logical yet counterintuitive answer shocked readers, from casual puzzle enthusiasts to esteemed academics, and still serves as a lesson in critical thinking today.
The Monty Hall Problem Explained
Here’s the famous puzzle inspired by the game show Let’s Make a Deal:
1. A contestant chooses one of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the other two are goats.
2. The host, knowing what’s behind each door, reveals a goat behind one of the two remaining doors.
3. The contestant is then given a choice: stick with their original pick or switch to the other unopened door.

The Big Question: Stick or Switch?
Marilyn's Answer: “Always switch!”
Her explanation? By switching, the contestant increases their odds of winning the car from 1/3 to 2/3.
Backlash from Experts and the Public
Marilyn's solution unleashed a flood of criticism, with over 10,000 letters pouring into her Parade Magazine column. Among the critics were nearly 1,000 PhD holders, who claimed she misunderstood probability. Dismissive comments included:
“This is a blunder of epic proportions.”
“Women just don’t understand math.”
“The answer is clearly 50/50.”

Why Marilyn Was Right: The Mathematical Breakdown
1️⃣ Initial Probabilities
Chance of picking the car initially: 1/3.
Chance of picking a goat initially: 2/3.
2️⃣ Role of the Host
If the contestant initially picks a goat (2/3 chance), the host’s action guarantees that switching will lead to the car.
If the contestant initially picks the car (1/3 chance), switching will lose the car.
3️⃣ Conclusion
Switching wins 2 out of 3 times (2/3 probability).
Sticking wins only 1 out of 3 times (1/3 probability).
Proof That Shut Down Critics
1. Computer Simulations: Thousands of trials confirmed a 2/3 success rate for switching.
2. MythBusters: The TV show validated Marilyn’s logic through real-world experiments.
3. Academic Apologies: Many experts later admitted their errors, some even publicly apologizing to Marilyn.
Why It Feels So Wrong
Misjudging Probabilities: After a goat is revealed, many assume the odds reset to 50/50, ignoring the initial probabilities.
Illusion of Independence: People treat the second choice as a new event, rather than part of the initial setup.
Deceptive Simplicity: The problem seems simpler than it truly is due to the small number of options.
Marilyn vos Savant: A Genius and a Trailblazer
IQ of 228: Recognized as the highest ever recorded by Guinness World Records.
Early Life: Despite extraordinary intelligence, Marilyn dropped out of college to support her family.
Ask Marilyn Column: Through her puzzle-solving column, she inspired curiosity, debate, and intellectual growth.
The Legacy of the Monty Hall Problem
Marilyn’s journey with the Monty Hall problem is more than a mathematical triumph. It’s a story of resilience, courage, and unwavering belief in logic over popular opinion. She proved millions wrong and left an indelible mark on the world of probability and problem-solving.
Marilyn vos Savant reminds us that intuition often misguides us, and only by embracing logic can we uncover the truth.
What Do You Think?
Do you agree with Marilyn’s logic? Let’s discuss in the comments!