Why Do People Keep Losing Money in Crypto, Even with the 4-Year Cycle?
The crypto world runs on a four-year rhythm: three years of bear markets, one powerful year of bull runs. Despite knowing this cycle, many investors still stumble, caught off guard by the rollercoaster of emotions that drive each phase. Let’s break down why, and how to stay ahead with the right mindset.
Understanding the Crypto Cycle
Crypto’s four-year pattern has been surprisingly steady but incredibly intense. Here’s a look at this cycle’s flow:
1. Bear Market: Typically three years long, with price drops and market consolidation.
2014-2018: 177 weeks of bear market followed by a 34-week bull rally.
2018-2022: 157 weeks of bear trend, ending with a 47-week bull run.
2022-2026: We’re in the bear phase now, waiting for the next peak.
Despite this cycle's regularity, timing trades perfectly is challenging. Market psychology plays a huge role here.
The Psychology Behind the Phases
Each phase has its own emotional tone, impacting investor behavior and leading to decisions driven by fear, greed, or denial.
1. Red Phase (All-Time High): At market peaks, euphoria morphs into denial as prices start to dip. Anxiety and panic follow, leading many to sell at a loss—classic “capitulation.”
2. Yellow Phase (Accumulation): As prices stabilize, panic becomes frustration and even apathy. This phase often feels depressing, but it’s a prime time for experienced investors to accumulate assets, setting the stage for the next rally.
3. Green Phase (Bull Run Begins): Optimism builds, euphoria kicks in, and all-time highs make headlines. New investors flood in, often buying at the top, thinking the gains will never stop.
The Real Edge – Mastering Emotions
Knowledge of the four-year cycle is a strong tool, but the real edge comes from controlling emotions. Late buying due to FOMO, panic-selling during dips, and clinging to falling assets can lead to avoidable losses. Success comes from timing entries and exits based on strategy—not emotion.
Key Takeaway: Control Your Mind, Control the Market
The true winning formula is emotional discipline. By staying calm and sticking to a well-thought-out plan, investors can navigate the crypto cycle with a steady hand, reducing risk and enhancing long-term gains.
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If you’re tired of seeing losses despite knowing the market cycles, here’s what you need to understand:

1. The 4-Year Cycle That Controls It All 🌍

Crypto has a rhythm—a repeating four-year cycle with long bear markets and short, intense bull runs:

2014-2018: Bear – 177 weeks, Bull – 34 weeks

2018-2022: Bear – 157 weeks, Bull – 47 weeks

2022-2026: The waiting game continues...

Each cycle has kept close to these timeframes, meaning anyone paying attention could’ve seen the patterns—but even knowing this, many still lose.

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2. The Rollercoaster of Emotions 🎢

Every cycle has a psychological phase, pulling traders into dangerous emotional traps:

Red Phase: Complacency, anxiety, panic. A new all-time high (ATH) dips, but you think it’s a pullback. Anxiety kicks in, but you’re holding on…until panic takes over, and you sell at the worst time.

Yellow Phase: Anger, disbelief. The price stabilizes, but you’re bitter from recent losses. A small rally sparks hope, but it’s hard to trust.

Green Phase: Optimism, euphoria. The ATH is broken! Prices soar, emotions peak, but without a clear exit plan, many get trapped in the next downturn.

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3. The Perfect Storm – Market Cycle + Psychology 🚨

The predictable cycle and unpredictable emotions create a trap. Knowing the market doesn’t guarantee profits if you can’t manage emotions. Success in crypto means having a plan, staying grounded, and resisting the highs and lows of market mania.

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Crypto has this wild cycle every four years – 3 years bear, 1 year bull. We all know it, yet many still lose money. Why? Let’s dive into the rollercoaster:

1. The 4-Year Bull Run Cycle

In each 4-year cycle, the first 3 years see a bear market, followed by about 1 year of a bullish spike. Here’s the breakdown:

2014-2018: Bear (177 weeks), Bull (34 weeks)

2018-2022: Bear (157 weeks), Bull (47 weeks)

2022-2026: Still in the bear market until a new all-time high is reached!

2. The Psychology of a Market Cycle

Crypto markets are emotionally intense, driving the phases of every cycle:

Red Phase (ATH hit): Complacency leads to Anxiety, Denial, and finally Panic as prices tank. Many exit here – Capitulation.

Yellow Phase (Accumulation): As prices stabilize, Anger turns to Depression until Hope returns, slowly rebuilding faith.

Green Phase (ATH broken): Optimism grows into Belief, then Thrill, and finally Euphoria. Many buy here, thinking they’re on top.

3. Combining Both Factors

The Anatomy and Psychology of each cycle often lead people to react late, locking in losses or missing profitable exits.

Key Takeaway

Recognize the cycle’s phases – don’t let emotions dictate your trades. Know when to enter, but more importantly, when to exit.

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#CryptoTradingTips #MindsetMatters