Sooner or later it had to happen: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has surpassed Grayscale’s (GBTC) and has become the largest in the world.
Ladies & Gentlemen!! The Bitcoin ETF flippening 
@BlackRock 's Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT overtook @Grayscale 's $GBTC pic.twitter.com/EJI0aAPim9
— HODL15Capital 
(@HODL15Capital) May 29, 2024
According to the latest known data, IBIT now holds more than 288,000 BTC, while GBTC is stuck at 287,000.
The phase of approach
The overtaking happened just yesterday, but the chase started on the same day they both landed on the USA stock exchanges, January 11th of this year.
Initially, GBTC owned almost 620,000 BTC, given that the fund had actually existed for more than ten years even if not in the form of an ETF.
Instead, IBIT initially owned 0 Bitcoin.
Since GBTC has particularly high commission costs, and given that until it was converted into an ETF it was almost impossible to convert the shares into BTC or cash, as soon as it was converted into an ETF and hit the stock market, it began to record strong capital outflows.
In the first week alone of being on the exchanges, it had to liquidate more than 60,000 BTC, and within just two weeks it had already dropped below 500,000 Bitcoin.
In the meantime, IBIT in just three weeks has come to possess more than 50,000 BTC. It should be noted that it wasn’t just IBIT absorbing the Bitcoin exiting from GBTC, because FBTC of Fidelity was also purchasing Bitcoin at a high rate, although lower than IBIT.
L’ETF su Bitcoin di BlackRock ci ha messo solamente sei settimane a superare i 100.000 BTC, ed a quel punto ha iniziato ad accelerare ulteriormente.
In the meantime, while IBIT in just three weeks went from 119,000 BTC to 196,000, GBTC also fell below 400,000 Bitcoin. So just over two months after its launch, BlackRock’s ETF had already reached a size equal to half of Grayscale’s, which had existed for more than ten years.
The overtaking of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF compared to Grayscale
To tell the truth, when IBIT reached 250,000 BTC, and GBTC fell below 350,000, the approach slowed down considerably.
On the other hand, the first phase was characterized by a true and proper FOMO on Bitcoin, which ended on March 14 with the achievement of the all-time high price at around $73,800.
A quel punto IBIT ha iniziato a crescere molto più lentamente, tanto che nelle successive nove settimane ha acquistato solamente 78,000 BTC, ovvero solo poco più di un terzo di quelli che aveva acquistato nelle prime nove settimane.
In the same period, GBTC liquidated only slightly more than 100,000 BTC, which is less than half of what it had liquidated in the previous nine weeks.
Indeed, starting from mid-April, that is from when the price of Bitcoin recorded a correction the week before the halving, the pace of sales of Grayscale’s ETF has significantly reduced compared to the previous months, as well as the pace of purchase of BlackRock’s ETF.
A partire però proprio da questa settimana si è registrato un piccolo incremento del ritmo di acquisto di IBIT, grazie al quale è finalmente riuscito a superare GBTC.
Starting from this week, however, there has been a small increase in the purchase rate of IBIT, thanks to which it has finally managed to surpass GBTC.
The Bitcoin spot ETFs
Among the major ETF or ETP on Bitcoin in the world, the top five are all new ETF launched in January on the US exchanges, even though among these there is GBTC which has existed for more than ten years but not in the form of an ETF.
Only in sixth place is the Canadian BTCC.TO (Purpose Bitcoin ETF), existing since 2022 but not exceeding 28,000 BTC.
It should be noted that the first five (IBIT, GBTC, FBTC, ARKB, and BITB) together hold more than 820,000 BTC, which is significantly more than the 620,000 that GBTC held initially. This means that the overall increase to date, including GBTC’s losses, amounts to about 200,000 Bitcoin, equivalent to more than 13 billion dollars.
A special mention must also go to FBTC, the ETF on Bitcoin by Fidelity.
In fact, over the course of the months, he managed to purchase more than 161,000 BTC, which although are much less than the 288,000 of IBIT, are still many (equivalent to about 11 billion dollars).
I soli primi tre ETF su Bitcoin al mondo possiedono nel complesso più di 730,000 BTC, ovvero più del 70% di tutti i BTC posseduti al mondo dagli ETF o ETP.
This makes it evident how dominant the American financial markets are in the crypto field.
It should not be forgotten that since April 30, there have been spot Bitcoin ETFs on the Hong Kong stock exchange, but these, taken all together over the course of more than four weeks, have not managed to surpass 2,500 BTC.
Just think that the IBIT alone exceeded that figure in its first week on the markets, while within three weeks it had already surpassed 50,000 BTC.
Sebbene il trend che ha portato al sorpasso di IBIT nei confronti di GBTC potrebbe non essersi ancora arrestato, il cambio di ritmo delle ultime settimane fa pensare che l’ETF di BlackRock su Bitcoin potrebbe non crescere ancora più molto sul breve periodo.
Although the trend that led to the overtaking of IBIT compared to GBTC may not have stopped yet, the change of pace in recent weeks suggests that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF may not grow much more in the short term.
However, in case of a new bull run, and new FOMO, it could still have ample room for growth.
One last curiosity: the largest ETF in the world on gold, Invesco Physical Gold A (SGLD), has an AUM of about 13.3 billion dollars, while IBIT exceeds 19.5 billion.