On today's study we plot Bitcoin ( #BTCUSD ) against two unique formulae that encompass the basic essence of the global money supply. The formula in blue has a differentiation towards Chinese bond yields while the orange on the Chinese Yuan. Both are regressed against the U.S. Dollar and the batch of the U.S. Balance Sheet, Chinese Central Bank Balance Sheet and the ECB's Assets.
BTC bottoms exactly when the orange trend-line bottoms and it starts the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle when the blue trend-line bottoms on a Lower Low. Right now blue has started to rise after just bottoming on a Lower Low.
This is contrary to common belief and traditional Halving theory, but according to the above monetary metrics BTC may just be starting a new parabolic rally much earlier than anticipated.
Do you agree or it's too soon and you'll wait for the Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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#BTCUSDT #cryptocurreny #signals #TradingOpportunities

#Bittensor #TAOUSDT is on a remarkable parabolic rally since the October 19 bottom, supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. Below that, is the natural technical Support, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically every bullish leg of TAO during this run targets the +0.5 Fibonacci interval, where it consolidates until the next rally to the +0.5 Fib. As you can see, the first consolidation was on the 1.5 Fib, then the 2.5 Fib, where it currently trades sideways.
As long as the Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will target the 3.5 Fib extension at $580. If the Higher Lows trend-line breaks, we will take the loss and target a potential contact with the 1D MA50, with current projection estimates putting a target at $175.00 (but can change as the 1D MA50 rises).
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has established itself above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) making steady Higher Highs since the start of the year and on the week of August 07 2023 is about to complete 60 weeks since the 1W RSI bottom (the Bear Cycle's technical bottom if it wasn't for November's FTX crash).

In the last two Cycles, the 60 week mark from the RSI bottom, triggered the start of a strong rally (green Channel Up) that reached +359% from the Cycle's bottom. Every Cycle can be viewed as an Ascending Triangle with the Top/ Resistance starting from the Bear Cycle's first Lower High. On the 2014/ 2015 Cycle the Resistance was at +300%. In 2019 the +359% mark was reached much earlier due to the Libra euphoria. Also the sudden collapse exactly after the 60 week completion was due to the March 2020 COVID crash, a non-technical irregularity. The Channel Up started shortly after regardless, harmonizing the patterns, right when the 1W MA50 was regained. Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences look similar with each other, with the Lower Highs trend-line standing out.

In any case on the current Cycle, the +359% mark matches exactly the $69800 All Time High (ATH), while a +300% rise sets a Target at $63000. One thing looks certain based on this model, that the 60 week count is almost up and in August we can see the start of a new rally towards this target zone. Scale your buys accordingly!

Buy what do you think? Are you expecting BTC to follow this pattern of the previous Cycles or have a different projection in mind? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for nearly a full month (since the June 23rd High) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is only 1000 points away. Since the bullish break-out exactly at the start of the year, BTC has used the 1D MA50 as the short-term Support and more specifically the bounce level before each Higher High.

As you see on this chart, the movement since the start of 2023 has been fairly Cyclical, a Higher Highs rejection starts a correction, which when the 1D MA50 breaks (1D candle closes below it), extends towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This sequence current has the last Higher High to give and we expect to start any time. Our target is $34000.

Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Maker (MKRUSD) has had an incredible bullish run since June 12, being currently on the 6th straight green 1W (weekly) candle. This rally has taken a stop on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) two weeks ago but more importantly it faces an even stronger Resistance from the October 03 2022 High at 1165.

This is taken from the previous Cycle and the early 2019 fractal where after MKR again broke above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it failed to close above the October 08 2018 Resistance and turned into a wide and long-term Accumulation Phase for 1 year.

As a result, we currently believe that until the price closes a 1W candle above the Resistance, it will most likely pull-back to the 1W MA50.

If however it closes above the Resistance, this fractal will get invalidated and we will buy the bullish break-out towards Resistance 2 at 2300.

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the first month following the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. The previous bottom MACD Bullish Cross formations, where achieved with the price on the 0.786 (June 2019) and the 0.5 (December 2015) Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. On the current sequence, the price has hit the 0.5 Fib. In 2016 it took BTC 6 months to get to the 0.786 Fib, which sets a time estimate on December. The 0.786 Fib is this time at $50000 and that is our target for the end of the year.

Do you agree with the symmetry or have a different end-of-year target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Kaspa (KASUSD) continues rising after a rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) 10 days ago. Its movement appears to be highly cyclical since it first started trading and we are at the start of the bullish run of the 3rd Cycle.

As long as the 1D MA50 supports, we are long and target 0.10 which is lower than the previous +900% rise but falls within a potential Channel Up that may be established, as each Cycle appears to be getting weaker.

Also the Cycles appear to be highly symmetrical as, based on the 1D RSI, we have completed the first kick-start phase of the run, similar to February 07.

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Algorand (ALGOUSD) has hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 17. That is also the top of the 4-month Channel Down pattern. If broken, it may turn out into the first such major bullish break-out move this year as not only is the price rebounding off a Double Bottom but the RSI is on a huge Higher Lows line (Bullish Divergence).

As a result, we will go long if the 1D candle closes above the top of the Channel Down and target 0.15000, which is not just near Resistance 1 but more importantly the Lower Highs trend-line since the February 21 High.

On the longer-term if a 1D candle closes above that Lower Highs trend-line as well as Resistance 1, we will buy again targeting 0.18000 (within Resistance 2 and the 0.382 Fibonacci).

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Huge success for Ripple (XRPUSD) as following the favorable court ruling, the price smashed the 0.65000 target that we set on our analysis last month (see chart below), and broke aggressively above the (now former) Channel Up:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/nuvHSySX-XRPUSD-A-healthy-pull-back-before-reaching-0-65000/

We need to get to the 1W time-frame in order to understand more effectively the magnitude of this move. With the long Support of the 1W MA50 (blue trene-line), the price has formed a new Channel Up that guides it directly to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the multi-year Triangle pattern that XRP has been trading in since the 2018 All Time High. This resembles the Channel Up/ Accumulation phase of 2020 that led to the April 2021 High.

The Triangle however, resembles the pattern of 2013 - 2016, which had a parabolic break-out in 2017 that formed the All Time High. We have attached the break-outs of those two former Channels for projection purposes. The reality is that the XRP has been left so far behind the rest of the crypto market since the 2020 lawsuit, that may very well deliver a proportionally stronger rally as new liquidity gets injected into the market during this Bull Cycle.

As a result we are expecting XRP to reach 2.000 (roughly the previous Cycle High) between December 2023 and January 2024.

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#crypto2023 #crypto #XRP #xrpusdt #ripple

Stellar (XLMUSD) hit and broke today above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the week of May 02 2022. That's more than 1 year of trading below a key long-term Resistance that is now broken. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has supported this price action for the past 2 weeks.

The time XLM hit the 1W MA200 during the previous Cycle, it failed to close the week above it and had a medium-term pull-back to the safety of the 1W MA50 before it started the final part of the parabolic rally from October 2020 to May 2021. Notice that the 1W RSI then was on the exact same (overbought) level it is today.

As a result, if it fails to close above the 1W MA200, we will wait for a pull-back to buy, preferably as close to the 1W MA50 as possible. If it closes above the 1W MA200 though, we will buy on the market price. In either case, we will target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the multi-cycle Triangle pattern at 0.7000.

#xlm #xlmusd #stellar #crypto2023 #crypto

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is establishing a consolidating position above the Gaussian Channel on the 1W time-frame for the 4th straight week. On all of previous Cycles, such break and consolidation above the Gaussian was the start of a parabolic rally.

As far as targets are concerned, on the first 2 Cycles, the rally reached at least the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level measuring from the previous Cycle High and the Gaussian break-out level. The last Cycle (no3) reached (and exceeded) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Taking this 2.0 Fib 'worst' case scenario, we should be expecting this new rally to reach at least the $160000 mark.

Would you agree? Is your expected top higher or lower than 160k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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#BTC #bitcoin #btcusdt #crypto2023 #crypto

Conflux (CFXUSD) made a low two days ago on the 0.1725 Support and along with the June 15 Low, makes so far a Double Bottom formation. It is no surprise then to see the price on a strong 1D candle today, headed towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).

The pattern since the March 19 High is a Channel Down, so if the Double Bottom breaks, we will sell and target a new Lower Low at 0.1000.

Until it does though, the Double Bottom is a formation capable of breaking above the Channel Down, so we will take a long on the current price and target the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the top (0.29000) which is the bottom of the High Volatility Zone (and now Resistance Zone) of the 0.5 - 0.382 Fib range. That move represents a +45% rise from the current value.

Beyond that, we will buy only if the price breaks above the 0.618 Fib and target the March 19 High at 0.488000.

Notice the 1D RSI, which is completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, a typical bullish reversal formation.

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#conflux #cfxusdt #cfx #crypto2023 #crypto

Compound (COMPUSD) is rebounding after the initial rejection on the 71.500 Resistance that goes all the way back to the August 10 2022 High. As long as it holds, we will trade within that and a Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D RSI pattern is identical to the January 15 - 30 peak formation, which also traded in range before the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) broke and completed a nearly -40% decline.

As a result, if the 1D MA50 breaks again, we will calculate a rough -40% decline from the last High, most likely that will be around 45.000.

A 1D candle close above the Resistance though, will be a bullish break-out for us and we will target a potential 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test at 100.000.

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#comp #compound #compusdt #crypto2023 #crypto

Ethereum (ETHUSD) continues to trade within the Channel Up that started on the November 2022 market bottom and is currently supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This draws comparisons with the final consolidation after the March 10 Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up. Both in price and 1D RSI terms the two fractals form an Inverse Head and Shoulders which is a bullish reversal pattern found on market bottoms.

The previous fractal topped on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, completing a +56% rise. The 2.0 Fib on the current formation is at 2250, while a +56% rise potentially peaks 2550. We will pursue initially the $2250 target (will be a +20% increase from the current level) as it is near the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is a critical long-term Resistance as it has been unbroken since May 15 2022.

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#ETH #ETHUSDT #ETHERUM #ETHER #crypto2023

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame is about to see its RSI break above the 70.00 overbought barrier. A simplistic yet reliable historical way of viewing the current situation is that every time the RSI broke above this level, BTC was either starting a mega Parabolic Rally or was in the middle of a smaller rally. On five occasions the rallies were very aggressive, on four there were less, the kind of rallies we see at the start of a Bull Cycle.

What is it going to be this time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is witnessing a strong green week, following three straight weeks of flat price action that got many questioning the strength and durability of the rally since the start of the year. A simple indicator comes to give the answer on the 1W time-frame. It is the Bollinger Bands that display a very distinct characteristic during BTC rallies (similarly during downtrends as well).

We call that "The Bollinger Wave" and it is the upper Bollinger Band (blue trend-line) on the 1W time-frame that Bitcoin rides as a "wave" during a Bull Rally. The chart on the left shows the last two such rallies, with the current being the 3rd one as the price has been "riding" the upper Bollinger since the week of January 16.

The chart on the right shows all such rallies since 2010. It is easily noticeable that when such rallies start there is now easy or quick stop to them and they are supported by the Bollinger's Basis (orange trend-line). This is the exact same trend-line that offered the strong rebound of March 6th.

How high the current rally can go before getting exhausted is anybody's guess but two things are a fact: a) It has only just started and b) the Bollinger Basis has risen to 22435 and is now the long-term Support.

So what do you think? Will Bitcoin continue to "ride the Bollinger wave"? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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With the high degree of correlation among financial assets, it is not a coincidence that Bitcoin (BTCUUSD), Nasdaq (NDX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) all are on Huge Pivot Zone, the behavior of which is more likely going to determine the trend for the next several months.

Bitcoin's Pivot Zone has been in effect since January 2021 and is just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Nasdaq's has been in effect since May 2021 and is also just above the 0.382 Fib. DXY's has been in effect since May 2022 and is right on the 0.5 Fib.

All are on the opposite side of their 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and their Cycle trend-line, indicating that it has been a while since the break-out hence the trend change from bearish to bullish (for Bitcoin and Nasdaq) and vice versa (for the DXY). The one with the biggest potential (downside) is the DXY as it is the only one having not touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) yet. This should have a sizeable bullish impact on both Bitcoin and Nasdaq.

So are all three assets on those Pivot Zone at the same time by coincidence? Will a DXY break lead the other two? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't backing down, withstanding to perfection so far any noise in the stock market, a development that establishes that its new Bull Cycle is well underway. Having broken above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and what will most likely be the 4th straight weekly closing above it, we see that it is testing (and so far struggling to break) the key former Support of the Bear Cycle (Fibonacci 1.0).

The previous Cycle made an aggressive rally to the 2.0 Fib extension after it broke above the Bear Cycle's Support (Fib 1.0) and peaked 28 weeks after the bottom. In an amazing act of symmetry, we see that these last two Bear Cycles lasted for 52 weeks each. Since so far the moves are proportional, we cannot easily dismiss the probability of this '1st Rally Phase' being also 28 weeks and reaching as high as the 2.0 Fib, which is a little over $53k.

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is ahead of a critical breakthrough on the 1W time-frame. The former Support of the first half of the Bear Cycle is around 30k and is currently being tested. History has shown that when this level gets tested as a Resistance and breaks during the start of a new Bull Cycle, it never gets retested (cannot count the irregularity of a once in 100 years event like the COVID pandemic in March 2020.

At the same time time, when it breaks the 9°Lower Highs trend-line, the Parabolic Rally starts and doesn't look back. All this while the 1W LMACD is on perfect symmetry with the previous Support tests.

Are we about to wave 'bye bye' to 30k for good? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is in the process of completing a peculiar Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on a bullish slope. This has historically been extremely bullish for BTC. For reference, we post the most recent such formation (June - August 2021) and the whole 2017 Parabolic Rise which contained 5 similar patterns. The technical target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently a little over $38000.

Do you think that's BTC's immediate target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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