Ladies and gentleman if you think you work hard then think again, i am going to show you the most overworked man on the planet.

I am already warned and restricted (less views), this post might get me banned, the truth hurts.

Firstly this is VERY important to note 👇

For non-English speakers (If you dont understand the image above),
Badges/check marks are used to determine the account belongs to the person they represent and to help retail traders make knowledgeable choices about who they follow and interact with.👍

For Binance to bestow (Binance wording) people or accounts with a check mark they must pass the verification process, this includes a photo I.D and facial recognition.👇

If you are a new or uninformed retail trader and log on to square you might be met with this friendly guy, a Crypto Expert and he has a check mark.

He is also number 3 on the leaderboard 🥳🥳 (dont worry if you forget he will remind you 20 times per day, vote vote vote.)

He has been very busy on Square.👇

He has made over 3300 posts in just over 2 months, thats around 50 per day!

Feel free to read the Binance terms or the square terms/community guidelines, in their terms/guidelines it clearly states that you are not allowed to spam post or post in a manner that would influence square users.
The square/community terms also state you are not allowed to post misleading articles that cannot be backed up with facts or proof.
There are also many terms about influencing the behaviour of square users by farming for likes, shares and so on.
Bullishbanter does all of the above of a daily basis.
This has just become increasingly worse as many "top voices" are pushing for the top spots on the "coveted" binance creator leaderboard.
I have been censored/restricted for including my X profile in a post, my posts are moved to the back page (less views)👇

You will always find Bullishbanter on the front page of square, i guess he has not done anything to break the community guidelines, his account/posts are clearly not restricted.
I have never promoted anything on Square (or elsewhere), this includes not having any binance campaign promotional tags on my posts.
Maybe because I speak the truth and I don’t push/promote the "binance family" narrative or promotions is why I don’t get the same preferential treatment other "binance family" accounts do.

Anyways moving on.

He also has an X account (I cant share the full image or i will be banned)

Binance KOL ☝️ Key opinion leader - a person who’s opinion holds sway over a large group of people

His X posts are also retweeted by a few other top square posters with square check marks.
He seems to attract very beautiful people on X , these beautiful people comment about how amazing he is and retweet his posts, they are clearly not fake X accounts, it’s just a coincidence they all have the exact same style of X profile and they are unbelievable beautiful.

He also has a telegram. (I erased his @ from the image because I don’t want to promote this)

He spam posts all day, many of his posts are parabolic Bullish 1 minute then followed by market crash fears a few minutes or hours later, mostly just spam without justification or any conscious.

Also he seems to target the Pakastani community and he knows where 90% of his followers come from...how does he have this information?

He posts blatant lies about how he went from rags to riches in a year trading ALT coins, and he will share how he did it.👇 (One of many examples)

He degrades his followers to spamming " voted voted voted "or something similar in his comments section in the hopes they might get some type of red packet reward.
I tested this myself, twice, on 2 different posts, i did the task, i typed exactly what he asked or hinted towards, i never received anything, maybe i am just unlucky😕

1430 replies on this post alone, 99.9% of which are people looking for some type of red packet reward. Also it says “you will get a red packet”, I didn’t , surely offering rewards for a task must be binding?
Read his posts, he constantly tells his followers they are responsible, yes responsible, for 5 votes per day and must get their family to vote, for what the chance they get a $0.01 red packet reward?
He is preying on poor and desperate people, even telling them to get their families involved to vote for him.
He calls his followers family and says he loves them but it’s all for his gain, it’s narcissistic and a scam.
If he wins the square awards it will enable him to leverage that as trust, maybe in outside paid groups.

Is this the binance square family?

Is this good for retail crypto?

The circle of death for uninformed retail traders on square,
They trust the garbage these check marked (verified) accounts post about and when they go broke they are reduced to basically begging for money in the comments and being bullied by constant posts/pressure to do a task for these account holders, it is sickening and immoral !!
I know this breaks numerous binance square terms already, nothing is done, why?
This is a poster who is on the front page of square always, unless you block him you will see his posts all day, every day.
I think it is clear to see that this is terrible for uninformed retail traders, its spam, misinformation, its manipulation and its predatory.
It needs to be stopped!

Now we could just end this post here but where would the fun in that be...

So before i go i just have one more question.

Now this could be nothing.

I will let you decide...

Remember he has a check mark, the account is verified!

So will the real bullish banter please stand up?

Ye its probably nothing right.....

Check marked account.

Binance KOL, 106k followers.

Number 3 on the leaderboard.

Welcome to Binance square 👍

Peace

#TheWolfThatWins #scamriskwarning #BinanceSquareFamily #TelegramCEO

While writing this post i kept having the same flashback to the scene from the movie-Gladiator.

The scene where Marcus Aurelius says "There once was a dream that was Rome.."

There once was a dream that was crypto...

The decentralised dream that we once had for crypto is nearly dead.
Crypto, most importantly Bitcoin is now becoming a tool for the richest and most powerful.
There is nothing decentralised about the plan they have for Bitcoin , it’s a means to an end.
If you want to know more then read on.

This post is long, it is 100% intended for the red pill gang.

The other day i linked an article in my post 👇

https://unlimitedhangout.com/2024/07/investigative-reports/trump-embraces-the-bitcoin-dollar-stablecoins-to-entrench-us-financial-hegemony/

I am going to try and break down this article(and more) in a user friendly way.

Every part of this post leads back to Bitcoin

Key points,
Bitcoin is a store of value, in years to come this will continue to grow, this is by design and planning on a deep state level.Bitcoin is a means to an end for the US government and the powerful people who control the narrative and will profit off it.The plan for Bitcoin (on a deep state level) is to control the supply and demand and use that as a means of enforcing US dollar dominance globally through US denominated stable coins.US denominated stable coins are mostly backed by US debt, the bigger the demand for US backed stable coins, the bigger the market for US treasuries (US debt).The Petrodollar just ended, now starts the age of the Bitcoindollar.

Lets start,

The United States of America faces 2 large economic problems, supply and demand.

Global demand for US dollars, (Demand)
In recent years there has been a global movement to shift away from the demand for USD as the go to currency for global trading, this is shown by the end of the petrodollar and also a continued movement by Brics nations to create a Brics currency.
I will not go deep into how the petrodollar secured global dominance for the USD, most of you already know, basically any nation looking to buy oil had to convert their local currency to dollars to buy oil, any oil rich nation that did not comply quickly felt sanctions or the wrath of the US war machine.
For over 50 years this has enforced the demand for USD globally, now with the end of the petrodollar and global tensions and sanctions many nations are looking to change this.

US Government debt, (Supply)
Firstly it is important to note, US treasuries are US Debt.
These treasuries are backed by the US government and offer different rates of return depending on duration, supply and demand, interest rates, yield curve and many other economic factors.
I have explained treasuries in length in my previous posts, basically a US treasury is the US government selling its debt.
They can be sold in the short term, days-weeks (Known as T-Bills)
They can be sold over the long term, 10-30 years (known as treasury bonds)
The US government is currently in $35 Trillion worth of debt.
They need somebody to buy $35 Trillion worth of treasury bills and treasury bonds.

This is a list (In billions of USD) of the largest foreign holders of US treasuries👇

For decades outside nations have been huge holders of US treasuries, in recent years China/Japan and other nations have been selling treasuries in the hundreds of Billions for economic or political reasons.
The US government is printing more money and is in more debt than ever before, many large nations who previously soaked up a large part of that debt are no longer customers.
The US government need another market for its ever increasing debt.

The above list is missing a VERY important player! (Actually a few)

USDT - Treasury bill holdings $95 Billion.
This places USDT above the likes of Mexico and Germany as non US debt holders, also if you include other stable coins like Circle/Paypal then the amount is over $150 Billion
With current estimates is it predicted that US denominated stable coins will be the largest (Non US) holder of US treasuries (debt) in the next 4 years.

For anyone who follows me you will know i share no love for USDT.
I have long had concerns about the unregulated way USDT has been run.
I feel my concerns about USDT over the last years have been justified, I just missed something that is now becoming more and more obvious.

USDT is now to big/important to fail

This is the rise in USDT market cap over the last 4 years 👇(Monthly candles)

Lets look at some key points for USDT over the last 4 years.

USDT has gone from $10B-$115B Market cap.Tether changed its wording, previously USDT was "backed 1-1 by USD", Now it is backed by Tether reserves, 81% of which is held in US debt.Tether onboarded the US FBI and secret service into their platform.Tether freezes funds held by US sanctioned wallets.Tether onboards chainalysis monitoring.

Each and every point listed above has a VERY deep rabbit-hole that explains it, i will link 2 articles at the end of this post for people who want a deeper understanding.
4 years ago Tether was facing scrutiny and legal troubles in the United States, then that all went away.
I can only assume that around this time they were given 2 options,
Either face further scrutiny and legal troubles by the full force of the US government and its allies.Become a proxy.

I have done deep research into this and it basically all leads to two things, information and dollar dominance

Information,

At the BTC conference Trump spoke about a central bank digital currency, also Jerome Powell was asked about it during the FOMC press conference.
Both echoed the same stance, no plans for a CBDC.
Why not?
Firstly you need to understand that your data is the most traded commodity in the world.
Most governments are not allowed to openly spy on their citizens, they don’t need to, they just buy your information from data brokers.
Everything you touch or use is collecting data, every social media page you visit, your search engine, your phone, the list is endless, most of this is allowed because you accepted the terms of service.
This data is then sold globally, including to governments and government agencies.
Why change that with digital currencies?
Stable coins like Tether already offer all the power without any of the messy regulation, why create a government regulated and scrutinized digital currency when you have a proxy that will already serve the same purpose.

Dollar Dominance
You can go very deep down the rabbit-hole to see how this whole system has been created, Bitcoin is the commodity, the value, the end game is to convert that value into holders of US backed stable coins globally.
If you look deep enough you will find connections in all the big players who are helping to spread US backed stable coins globally.
Most of these large companies can all be traced back to Venture capital firms or powerful people who control the power and wealth in Silicon Valley, California.
If you look deep enough you will find the people behind companies like Xapo, PayPal, Paxos, Coinbase, USDT, USDC, Mercado libre , many bitcoin mining companies, Black Rock and other large US bitcoin ETF funds, even spy satellite companies and social media companies are all linked.
The list and the web is endless, from Latin America to the Middle East and Africa.
All of these companies directly or indirectly trace back to the same rich and powerful people and large organisations founded or based out of Silicon Valley, California.
The goal is simple, make the US dollar the global currency through US backed stable coins.
This is already happening globally as more and more people in Countries that suffer from hyperinflation are turning to USDT or US backed stable coins as a means to save money or to transact (Argentina, Venezuela, many African countries, war torn countries)
If you look deep enough you will find that many of the success stories in these 3rd world countries or struggling economies can be traced back to global players like Endeavor.

Endeavor is an American run “philanthropy” network that stretches the globe, through its finance and power it has created a global network and ecosystem by empowering people and businesses who are selected to be a part of the endeavor ecosystem, most of this focus has been in the global South.

Endeavor were the force behind Xapo bank and Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre.

A few other Endeavor success stories.👇 (Many offering an online payment platform)

For a struggling business in Latin America, Africa, Asia or the Middle East a lifeline from Endeavor and access to their global network is a sure fire way to success, if they select you, but remember you have to pay it forward.
Xapo and Mercado Libre/Livre are 2 of their huge success stories, also both offer global payments in US backed stable coins.

Mercado Libre👇 ( These examples just shows Brazil and Chile, they are used across South America, including payments in US stable coins)

Xapo👇

This is an American run, global movement to put the right people in the right places and ensure there is a global demand and market for US stable coins for decades to come.
Higher global demand for US backed stable coins means higher demand for US government debt, by converting your local currency into USDT/USDC/PYUSD (ripple soon) you are basically converting your currency into US debt.
As mentioned before this is not all you are doing, you are also now leaving an easy to trace digital footprint , the data of how much money you have, what you spend it on, who you send it to, everything will be available.
This effect is not only felt in struggling economies, around the world most crypto traders are trading crypto is USDT pairs, the liquidity in the market is mostly in USDT or other US backed stable coins.
There are also laws, Basel 3 and others, which will require large US funds who offer investment into Bitcoin to hold a reserve of US treasuries to protect against Bitcoin price volatility, another dump for US government debt.
Welcome to the age of the Bitcoindollar , the sinkhole for $35 Trillion in US government debt.

Final thoughts for this section,

Below you will find a lot of the source material i studied multiple times to further enlighten myself , it is amazing work by Mark Goodwin and Whitney Webb.
I dont know them or have any affiliation to them.
Their research and articles are very deep and very dark, i found them hard to read but i also want a deeper understanding.
Their research is absolutely amazing and deserves widespread praise, it is the uncensored journalism that the world desperately needs, especially Crypto.
For most of you it will be a rabbit-hole to deep.

I will try summarise and hugely oversimplify these articles in a more user friendly and to the point way,

What you will find if you read these articles is that many of the big companies and the powerful people who run them are mostly connected or have been placed in positions of power, many are part of the deep state movement to monitor and have power and influence over what we see, what we do, what we believe, our privacy, our financial freedom and much more.
The PsyOp (Psychological operation) is real, including in Crypto.

Many of the people who are shaping and/or manipulating Crypto today were doing the same over 20 years ago in the Dotcom boom.
Many of the powerful people who control a huge part of the crypto market today have been profiting off predatory practises for over 20 years, they have profited off insider trading, market manipulations, having close ties to powerful people inside and outside of government, they made fortunes off the financial crash in 2008 and even the covid pandemic.
If you trace back the connections they mostly lead back to the same rich and powerful people or Venture capital giants or companies that were founded and/or run out of Silicon Valley, California.
Many companies have been groomed or incorporated into the deep state web as the digital age grows, crypto is no different.
By using Bitcoin as the commodity they aim to create a global demand for dollars and a surveillance network around the world.
If you follow the breadcrumbs you will see why Trump winning this election is more important than most could imagine for this Bitcoindollar plan.

https://unlimitedhangout.com/2024/07/investigative-series/the-chain-of-custody-the-mafia-holding-the-elites-bitcoin/
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2024/08/investigative-series/the-chain-of-issuance-the-people-and-patents-that-built-the-financial-surveillance-network/

Some research i was working on that ties into this narrative.

I was going to post about this seperately but it ties into this post so well.

The imagine below shows the leaders in Venture capital deals in Crypto over the last year.👇 (You can find this list on DefiLlama)

This image shows the top 10 venture capital firms that have been responsible for the most new investment (by deals) into crypto projects over the last year.
If you look at the funding of most projects (especially in DEFI) that have been launched on major exchanges in the last 1-2 years you will find the above names will show up a lot.

So lets break down this list, i will split this into 2 parts, including central exchanges and without.

Of the top 10 there are 2 central exchanges on the list Binance and OKX.

Note this is the venture capital part of exchanges, they fall under the same umbrella and are still the same company in essence.

You will clearly notice from the image that they have a median investment amount of $0.00, a median amount is just the average investment made, or in the case of Central exchanges the amount disclosed.

Most large central exchanges don’t share their investments into crypto projects, they say this is because it is disclosing their competitive edge...

I need to choose my words wisely as you are not allowed to speak badly about the powers that be here.

Binance labs have been the clear leaders in deals over the last year, yes it is the largest Crypto exchange in the world but you need to question why central exchanges don’t share what they pay, or if they pay, to be invested in the tokens that they launch.

These tokens, especially in the case of Binance, gain a huge amount of hype and advertising around token launches, it is also where the launch price is determined in many cases.

This list below is from over a month ago but shows clearly how tokens launched on binance have performed in the months following launch, these projects are all extremely over valued on launch and offer no fair investment for retail, most importantly they don’t allow for price discovery which is what determined crypto price in the past.

In past cycles tokens had price discovery, retail and large whales were able to buy at the same prices from token infancy, that is now gone, that whole token cycle is now controlled by the VCs and central exchanges, this includes all the profits.

The days of finding a new token that will 20x(sustained)are very rare, all the 20-50x gains are already made by the VCs and central exchanges(Before launch), once launched retail are paying 20-50x more than what the VCs paid to seed the project 1-2 years prior.

All the profits that were made by retail investors in previous cycles are now going to the Venture capital firms and central exchanges, those were the profits that were re-invested in previous cycles and it’s what supported ALT seasons, now that profit is gone.

There is an ALT season happening, it has been happening all year, just not for retail investors.

Lets look at this list again, we have noted that 2/10 are central exchanges👆

Lets focus on the remaining 8(non exchange) venture capital funds on this list.

*Remember crypto is decentralised , that is its selling point*

Of these 8 Venture capital firms, how many would you say were started in America?

Wait America is huge, lets try narrow this down.

Of the 8 remaining Venture capital firms, how many would you say were founded and/or run out of California?
The answer is 7 (Framework is run out of Toronto Canada)

I don’t think you need much convincing to see where this is headed.
There is very little decentralization in crypto anymore, least of all in the new projects that are VC funded and launched on large exchanges.
The same web that is behind the global push/demand for US backed stable coins are also the same group who are funding many of the new projects that are launched on large exchanges.
If you just looked on the surface or took crypto at face value it would be easy to miss, as soon as you start to connect the dots the connections and the centralisation it leads back to is impossible to ignore.

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then its probably a duck.🤔

Most of these projects are absolute garbage, some are "worth" hundreds of millions-Billions FDV on launch and serve little/no real world usage, they are mostly made for the sole reason of transferring wealth from the uninformed poor/middle class retail crypto traders -> Rich VC funds and exchanges.
These are the "get rich quick" projects, the projects that "offer" retail investors the dreams of turning their $100 into a Lamborghini.
Binance square is a perfect case study for this (And they know it)

The next time the crypto market has a correction just look what the posts on square are about, the rage posts about "liquidation" or "scam projects".
You will find most of the posts relate to the VC funded, trash projects that have been hyped and basically force fed to uninformed retail traders over the last years.

It’s all predatory and it’s all planned.

Final thoughts,

It is never too late to buy Bitcoin, this Bitcoindollar system/plan is in its infancy.

Companies like Xapo/Coinbase (And many more) are spending Billions on security measures to secure Bitcoin keys, this is for a reason. (They even want to send BTC keys into space for security)👇

In my opinion it makes no sense to have anything less than 60-70% of your long term spot portfolio in Bitcoin.
Once you buy Bitcoin don’t sell, it could be the most valuable commodity in the world in the years to come.
Keep your Bitcoin safe, holding long term on a central exchanges is not safe, have self-custody.
When the market has a large correction buy more Bitcoin, only buy what you can afford to, this is not a get rich quick scheme.
You can either be a smart investor in Crypto or a gambler, both paths are available to you, the only person who can decide which path you take is you.

Knowledge and patience is power.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #BTC☀ #MarketDownturn #Market_Update

I mentioned in an earlier post that if the market sees another large downturn i will be looking to buy projects in the Defi/re-staking narrative within the Ethereum or Eigen ecosystem.
I have narrowed it down to 5 projects.
Ondo, Rez, Omni, Etherfi, ZRO.
I have included price targets for each later in the post.
My main target range is 410-450 billion in the Total 3 market cap (Market cap excl BTC/ETH)
The market would need to drop another 15-20% to reach my target zone (Shown below)

A 20% drop in the total Defi market cap would also see a drop to a previous level of resistance which might become an area of support👇

The market cap might not drop to this point, I am in no rush to accumulate the projects i have listed above, if we don’t see another downturn in the market then my plans will be put on hold.
I think with the current economic uncertainty and other factors there is a chance the price targets I have set could be hit in the comings weeks-months.
I have set price targets for the projects i have chosen to accumulate at roughly 15-20% below their current market price (ZRO 20%-30% lower)

Before we go further i just want to explain why i have chosen these projects.
My main reason is because they dont have large cliff unlocks for VCs in the next 3-6 months (Shown later)They are all part of a narrative (Defi, re-staking, liquid re-staking) that i believe will be pushed in the coming months, probably towards the end of 2024.They are all VC and exchange backed, they will receive a lot of hype in the paid for media and will be promoted by exchanges.I have done a lot of research into re-staking, mostly in regards to Eigen and Ethereum, it is why i have not included tokens from other chains.

My plans are simple, if price drops into my target range I will buy SPOT.
I have 2 price targets.
With the funds I have allocated for each project I will allocate 30% of that at the higher price target, if price falls further I will use the remaining 70% at the lower price target.
My total allocation for this will only make up for a small % of my crypto portfolio, it is higher risk-reward speculation.

Project by project.
For reference,
When I mention cliff unlocks below I am referring to unlocks that go to investors, core contributors, advisors, strategic partners (Holders who will likely sell), these unlocks will also increase the circulating supply of tokens.

Ondo
Price targets,
Upper-$0.4950
Lower -$0.462

Ondo Cliff unlocks start at the end of Jan 2025👇

ether.fi
Price targets,
Upper-$1.07
Lower-$1.005

ether.fi cliff unlocks start at the end of March 2025👇

Omni

Price targets,
Upper- $5.8
Lower-$5.5

Omni cliff unlocks start at the end of April 2025👇

Renzo(Rez)
Price targets,
Upper- $0.0288
Lower-$0.0271

Renzo cliff unlocks start end of April 2025👇

LayerZero(ZRO)
My accumulation range for ZRO is lower than the projects above, i feel it is more overpriced.

Price targets,
Upper- $2.625
Lower-$2.28

ZRO cliff unlocks start in June 2025👇

These are just my plans, I am not encouraging you to do the same.
I am not using the rent money to invest in these projects.
I don’t believe any of these projects are a breakthrough for crypto, they are made so that VCs and exchanges can profit off retail fomo, i am just playing the zero sum game.
I don’t have any timeframe for holding, it will depend on the market, if my buy targets are hit and the market rallies and my investment has 2-3x I will take part/full profits.
If sh1t hits the fan (economy, conflict) then i will just cut my losses, i wont just hold if there is a clear sign that the market could drop a lot lower.
This is neither a get rich quick idea nor a long term belief in any of these projects, it is solely about my cynical view of the direction crypto is heading/being led.
I am sure people will say there are other projects that might be better for whatever reason, this is just my plan (Based on research).

If you found this informative a like is always appreciated 🤙

Peace.

#etherreum #ZRO #REZ #altcycle #CryptoMarketMoves

A month ago the market crashed, this was partly due to the unemployment rate, non-farm data and manufacturing PMI fuelling recession fears.
This data is once again coming out next week (03-06 Sept).
Only a month ago we witnessed the perfect storm for the global speculation market.
Over 3 days, July 31st-August 2nd, the market went from spooked to outright panic.
Wednesday July 31,
The catalyst was Japan increasing interest rates, that was followed by the Fed holding interest rates at 5.5%.
Thursday-Friday, 01-02 Aug,
The market panicked as the unemployment rate hit 4.3% and triggered the Sahm rule
The Non-farm employment came out 60k lower than forecast.
Manufacturing PMI read lower once again.
The bad news was very bad news!
The market reacted.
The VIX(volatility index) skyrocketed, reaching levels only seen during Covid and the 2008 financial crash.

The global stock markets also witnessed a fire-sale.
The S&P500, the Nasdaq and The Nikkei all sold off.
Notably all have since recovered all those loses.👇

The Russell 2000 which is an index of US small-cap stocks also sold off and has also mostly recovered.

I feel that the Rus2000 is the most closely correlated stock Index to Bitcoin or Crypto when it comes to economic sentiment, Small cap companies are more effected by restrictive monetary policy, higher borrowing cost or economic worries.
Bitcoin and the Rus2000 shared similar price action in the weeks before July 31st and then shared a similar crash, The Rus2000 like other indexes has recovered far better than Bitcoin or Crypto in general.

A lot changes in a month, 30 days ago we saw a fire-sale and widespread panic across the market, now the whole market is pricing in soft landing.
The DXY (dollar strength) plummeted as the market priced in 50bps cuts in September.
Recent data has made a 25bps cut more likely and the DXY has recovered slightly.

A 25bps cut in September is now priced at 70%.👇

All of the above is pointing to a soft landing.

Crypto has not shared in this sentiment.

Last week i posted that i expected mildly Bullish conditions, i expected the Total Crypto market cap to test the upper part of the channel in the image shown above (Total).
I was clearly wrong.(Sorry)
My view was based on how the wider market was taking the economic data and narrative, crypto, like stocks, is just speculative investing, crypto is just more unregulated and higher up the risk curve.
So is crypto undervalued, or is it the canary in the coal mine?🤔
Since March a lot of the price action in crypto has been determined by data that points to interest rate cuts, recently that has turned to data that points to interest rate cuts without a recession.
The data over the last month has shown that a recession is not likely, also that the long awaited easing cycle will begin soon.
Great news for crypto…
So why is Crypto not Bullish?
Going by wider market sentiment it should be, even if retail has been fleeced constantly over the last 3-4 months, large investors should be buying BTC.
Maybe crypto is just lagging...
I personally think that other clear warning signs are still showing that things might not be as “soft landing” as they seem.
The Yen carry trade has resumed, has that money not filtered its way back to the crypto market yet?
Were emergency steps taken by central banks/large bank and large funds to hide the full damage of the Yen carry trade unwind?
Does the market have a false sense of security?
Currently, all things considered, Bitcoin is either undervalued or the wider (stock) market is overvalued.
What happened last month has mostly been forgotten, trillions were wiped out in days, margin calls worldwide, there was definitely widespread collateral damage, until now that has been swept under the rug.
If a soft landing and the start of an easing cycle is the base case for large investors then crypto should be bullish, especially BTC and ETH through ETF investments.
The BTC halving has long passed, the sell pressure from all the bankrupt funds or governments has mostly ended.
If large investors are not buying BTC "at a discount" there must be a reason for it, maybe the money printers and the fiscal stimulus is only able to prop up the stock market for now.
FED-> Large Banks -> Stocks.
The narrative is all soft landing, the major problem now could be the labour market.
The data that fuelled the market crash only 30 days ago will never once again come out this week 👇

Monday is labor day in America, it is a federal holiday, the stock market is closed.
From Tuesday-Friday all readings could have a huge impact on market sentiment and effect the likelihood of 25bps or 50bps cut on the 18th September.
The highest impact readings will be the Non-farm employment change and the Unemployment rate on Friday, these will have a massive impact on market sentiment, and they will also have a huge impact on the chance of a 50bps cut in September.
A 50bps cut is not good for the market if it shows the Fed are acting out of desperation, the current market sentiment is for a 25bps cut in September with future cuts to come, all part of a soft landing.
A bad reading in non-farm(much lower) or the unemployment rate(4.3% or higher) will once again spook the market and fuel recession fears.
Each reading this week has the potential to move the market, the main focus is on the labour market but the Manufacturing or Services PMI will also effect market sentiment and recession fears, especially manufacturing which is below 50 and has consistently declined since April👇

So what’s the play?

For me there is no short term play.
The labour market data is too hard to predict, also it is too easy manipulated.
Just over a week ago the jobs data was revised down by 818 000 from April 2023-May 2024, clearly the jobs data is not accurate.
This close to elections anything is possible, the whole market is now looking to the labour market to confirm a soft landing, Trump and Harris will also be looking to use it in their election campaign
Lower unemployment will be good for Harris, Higher unemployment will be good for Trump, it is a key economic and political talking point.
There is a reason that Crypto is not sharing in the sentiment of other markets, if things were as good as the narrative is saying then large holders would be accumulating.
For now patience is key.
I own Spot, mostly BTC, i have skin in the game, i am happy to see how this week plays out.
If you want to be Bullish/Bearish i would wait to see how the Manufacturing PMI comes out first, it will hold the most weight for the sentiment until Friday.
If we see another large drop in ALTS I will purchase tokens in the re-staking/defi narrative (Mid-Long term spot)
My target range is shown in the Total 3 image below👇 (Market Cap excl BTC+ETH)

Some tokens i am monitoring.👇

I don’t own or endorse any of these projects, most are garbage with little use case, i just think (based on a lot of research) that the next VC push will be in this narrative, retail will follow.
I am not looking to buy any of these tokens now, only if the market sees another large drop.
If price drops into my range for accumulation I will purchase spot, I will not hold indefinitely, I am not a 50x trader, I will hold until I am happy with the returns, always taking into account economic factors and other macro/fundamentals.
This is just my opinion, I am just sharing my plan/idea, as I already mentioned I don’t think most/any of these projects bring anything valuable to crypto, they are mostly VC trash, this is all about playing and trying to beat the zero sum game.
DYOR/NFA bla bla👍

"The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting." - Charlie Munger.

Dont be this guy👇

Trade Safely.

Peace.

Update 02/09.
From what I have read,
The Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 47.3%.
Services PMI as forecast (51.3) or 0.2% lower.
Unemployment rate 4.2%.
Hourly earnings 0.3%.
NON-Farm 155k-160K.
Unemployment claims 230k.

All of the above could be far off, it is just what i have read.
All the jobs data can be manipulated, higher or lower, it happens (Politics).

#CryptoMarketMoves #SahmRule #Market_Update #TelegramCEO #BTC☀

I am either losing my sanity or i am seeing things on a level that maybe is not meant to be seen. (Its probably the first option)

I was working all night on a post about the "Bitcoindollar" and i came across a few things i thought were wierd.
I didnt know how to tie them into that post so i thought i would just mention them seperately.
Im not going to go into deep analysis because the post i am working on already does that.
This is total conspiracy theory so please take it with a pinch of salt.
America selling its debt
USDT,
If we go back 4 years USDT was in trouble with the US authorities, they ended up paying a fine but also around that time they changed the wording on their page, it was backed 1-1 by US dollars, it was changed to " backed by tether reserves"
81% of those reserves($95 Billion) are held in US treasuries(US debt)
Since then no US legal problems 🤔
Ripple,
The big news in the last week has been about Ripple/XRP court case win over the SEC.
Only a few days later and Ripple has launched the test of its new stable coin(RLUSD), guess what it’s backed by?
Ye you guessed it, US treasuries (US debt).

Its probably nothing right...

XAPO BANK

This one is truly reaching.

Firstly if you dont know who Xapo bank is they are basically the company that introduced Bitcoin to silicon valley, not only that they are the custodial solution for coinbase, coinbase are the custodians for most of the BTC held by Bitcoin ETF funds.
They were also one of the first banks to offer US backed stable coins for transactions.
Xapo are a huge player in the plan for the new Bitcoindollar system and the plan to increase USD dominance worldwide through US backed stable coins.
This picture says it all👇

My next post will explain more in detail.

I just had one wierd question while doing research.

Why are Xapo fees going up from $150 a year to $1000 a year on the 16th September, that is not a normal increase in fees, 7x increase in fees?
Is anything happening around that time....

Again its probably nothing right....

I think i have gone to far down to many rabbit-holes.

Hope you are all having a great weekend.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #RippleStablecoin #XRPVictory #MarketDownturn

We are in the eye of the storm, volatility can return at any time.

Things that could have a large effect on crypto price in the coming week,
Any increased conflict in the middle eastUnemployment data on Thursday.The S&P500/Nasdaq and the Nikkei price.The FED or Bank of Japan (BOJ) making emergency policy decisions.

America
This is an extremely quiet week for US economic data, all focus will be on the unemployment data on Thursday, if unemployment reads much higher or much lower then the market will react.
This worldwide sell off in the markets is largely due to bad US economic data, especially the labour market, this weeks reading will be key to show any further signs of weakness, the whole market will be watching this reading.
The only thing that would make the Fed consider an emergency rate cut is if the unemployment reading comes out much higher and leads to further market sell off.
All other US economic concerns are still valid, this week the only major reading for the markets is unemployment(August 8, 12:30pm )

Monitor the S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Japan

Firstly it is important to know that the BOJ and the Japanese government feed off each other but both cant win, Policy decisions that are good for one are bad for the other.
Last week Japan made a surprise interest rate hike to try save the Yen.
Japan has intervened a few times over the last years to stop the Yens freefall, it does this by selling hundreds of Billions worth of US treasuries to buy back their currency to intervene, this only had a short term effect and was basically like burning the money.
The bank of Japan did this to create fear in the market, to try stop people shorting the Yen as the fear of an intervention by the BOJ was always possible.
This had little effect and the market continued to short the Yen and the BOJ threw away hundreds of Billions for no lasting effect.

Last week the BOJ increased interest rates to try save the Yen.

The bank of Japan has held 0% interest rates for nearly 20 years, even negative interest rates.
This has led to trillions of dollars worth of carry trading worldwide.
Carry trading is basically borrowing money with the intention to reinvest it in something else and gain profit (positive carry)
Huge funds and even central banks have been doing this for decades, borrowing money in Japan at 0% and investing around the globe.
The increase in Japans interest rate to 0.25% and the fear of future interest rate hikes have effected this global carry trade.
It is important to note that while many large holders have simply borrowed in Japan at 0% and then invested in US treasuries or other currencies/bonds for a 4-5% return(4-5% positive carry) many other traders use the borrowed funds to open leverage positions.
This is where the danger comes in, if this borrowed money is spread accross the market and leveraged or used as collateral against other open positions then the effect can be far greater.
Many of these leveraged positions are in the stock market (US and Japan) and even in Crypto investments.
Many of these positions are now at risk (negative carry) and the market is selling off due to this.
The interest rate hike created fear in the carry trade market but fears of more hikes in the coming months are the main concern for holders with large position, especially if they are leveraged.

Many large Japanese banks have leveraged positions in higher risk investments!

I have posted before (See post July 7th) about this high risk investment in American CLOs (corporate debt).
This carry trade fallout and US economic worries could have a huge impact on those higher risk/reward trades, if the CLOs start to default then the fallout could be massive for large banks in Japan, it would have a knock on effect for the whole economy.
The Japanese banks are already showing huge warning signs👇

For now we need to monitor the Nikkei and see how it performs in the coming days, in the last Asia session it recovered but since has lost all those gains during the London/NY Sessions.

The largest investor in the Nikkei is the Japanese government.
For the Japanese people the Nikkei is the lifeblood of the economy as many Nikkei related stocks are what make up a large part of their retirement/pension funds or other long term investments.
If the Nikkei declines further then the BOJ might need to once again reduce rates or insure no more hikes are planned in the coming months.
This would once again lead to the YENs value collapsing and for the global carry trade to resume.
It is to much to explain but there is no win-win for the Government of Japan and the Bank of Japan, they have survived and stagnated for 20 years but the effect of higher interest rates globally, most importantly in America has taken its toll.
The Japanese economy is a mess, any decision that helps one part has a negative effect on another part, it is basically the Government/stock market or the BOJ/Yen that will win, they both cant win.
Most important for the next couple days,
Japan,
Tomorrow(Aug 7th,11:50pm UTC+0) the BOJ will give a statement, traders will look to this for information about the current interest rate effect and also the possibility of future rake hikes.
America,
This is an extremely quiet week for high impact US data, on Thursday (Aug 8th, 12:30pm UTC+0) we have unemployment claims.
The unemployment claims could be the catalyst for the next move in the market.
The expected number is 241k, if this number comes out much higher or lower the market will react.
If it comes out far above 241k it will lead to another large sell-off as it will fuel recession worries even more.
If it comes out far below 241k it will be bullish as it will be a sign that previous unemployment numbers might have been elevated due to seasonal jobs or some blame hurricane beryl.
For now, like in many previous weeks, Unemployment will be the key focus and the market mover.
From now until then monitor the Nikkei, that will be the first warning sign of further market collapse, also monitor the SP500 and Nasdaq.
The market is currently taking a breather but any further tensions in the middle east, a bad unemployment reading or further falls in the stock markets(Japan and US) could once again lead to huge pressure and volatility.
What crypto needs now is a good (Low) unemployment number on Thursday, also for no further developments in the middle east.
I have purchased more spot BTC and ETH, i think BTC at current prices is a gift if you are willing to be patient and have the available funds to do so, if it falls more i will buy more, that is my only plan in crypto for now.

For people who trade forex,
If the Nikkei crashes further and the BOJ need to make an emergency decision then short the Yen, if this happens then the USD/YEN will likely go back to 160-170 in the coming months.
Trade Safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #BTC☀ #Market_Update #ETHETFsApproved

FOMC/Fund rate and high impact data.

I know i posted about this a couple days ago but i cant stress enough how important tomorrow is for Crypto price.
There is no neutal outcome tomorrow, it will either be very Bullish or very Bearish.
The current BTC price is $65 730, i think based on what happens tomorrow it will either hit $70k or $60K tomorrow or in the coming days.
You have no control over this, please dont try predict it, you should strongly consider closing all high leverage and margin trades before tomorrow.

Lets break down Bullish and Bearish scenarios for tomorrow.

ADP non farm change,
This will have a slightly Bullish effect if this reading is above 147k, the labour market is a worry for recession, if this number comes out far lower than expected it will be bearish as this will further fuel recession fears, this data will matter but the higher impact unemployment data comes out on Thursday-Friday.
Employment cost q/q
This will be used to signal inflation, higher employment cost is passed onto consumers, this should be around the 1.0% and wont have as much effect as other readings tomorrow.
Pending home Sales
Pending home sales is a forward looking indication so it is extremely important to gauge future economic health, pending home sales are counted when the contract is signed, the sale of a home effects a large part of the economy, financing cost, morgages, renovations.
The pending home sales have fallen over the last 2 readings(-7.7% and -2.1%) , another bad reading would definitely be bearish, the housing market like the labour market are key indicators used to signal a possible recession.
Tomorrow this reading needs to come out above 1.4% to be Bullish, the higher the reading and the more bullish it will be.

The main event, Funds rate and FOMC press conference.

How this could be Bullish,

If the Fed lowers rates tomorrow this will have an instant bullish effect on the crypto market, it is extremely unlikely as the Fed does not like to spook the market, it would also go against Trumps request(it was more of a warning).
At the time of writing a chance of a Cut is priced at 4.1% on Cme FedWatch, this shows it is extremely unlikely but some are still pricing in the possibility.

The Fed could keep rates at 5.5% and tomorrow could still have a Bullish outcome,
If earlier readings in the day point to a stengthening/stable labour market and housing market this will be the first thing needed for bullish momentum.
Most important is what is said at the Fomc press conference,
If Powell gives clear indication that they will start making cuts in September and plan on 2-3 cuts before the end of year, this will be Bullish, the market expects at least a clear indication of a September cut, if Powell gives indications of a larger cut in September(-50bps) this will increase the bullish effect.

What scares me is the bearish scenario!

The Bearish scenario,

If the labour market readings and home sales data get worse it is getting closer and closer to an imminent recession, as noted the most important labour data comes out on Thursday and Friday.
What scares me most about tomorrow is that the Fed keeps rates at 5.5% and then gives no clear indication of a September Cut.
I dont see how the Fed could possibly do this, what scares me is the political agenda, the "Trump effect"
The stock market and even the crypto market have priced in a September cut, if no clear indication of this is given tomorrow(Should rates be held at 5.5% for July) it will have an extremely bearish effect on crypto price.
Under normal circumstances i would say it is a certainty that Powell would give clear indication of a September cut at very least tomorrow.
With what is happening around this election i think anything is possible, more so because Trump has told Powell to hold rates.
Powell and the Fed should not be swayed by Trumps comments, the US economy is suffering, especially lower income consumers and small businesses.
If Powell does this tomorrow it will be economic self sabotage, nothing less, not for the rich who will be able to weather the storm but for the low income families and small businesses.

Some things to note about the US economy, Powell knows this also👇
I copy and pasted this from a bloomberg article about how interest rates have effected the economy in the last year.

Small businesses,
"The picture is much different for smaller businesses. The default rate on leveraged loans, which typically have variable rates, is projected to rise to a range of 5% to 5.5% this year, according to forecasts from Fitch Ratings. If realized, that would be the highest level since 2009. "

Credit card debt,

" Interest rates for credit cards rose to 22.76% in May, just shy of a record in data back to 1994, Fed data show. Some 2.6% of credit card balances were 60 days past due in the first quarter, reaching a series high in data from the Philadelphia Fed that goes back to 2012.  "

Labour market,
"The number of people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, known as long-term unemployed, rose to 1.5 million in June, the most since 2017 with the exception of a temporary spike during the pandemic, said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist for Glassdoor. 
Hiring has become more concentrated to just a few sectors — like healthcare, social assistance and government — a sign that other industries more vulnerable to economic slowdowns are starting to pull back, he said. 
Taken together, the figures raise concerns that the job market could weaken unexpectedly, a turn that would put the overall economy at risk"

Stock Market,

"The S&P 500 has climbed about 25% since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, adding about $3 trillion to household wealth.  
If the Fed doesn’t start lowering rates soon, however, “the market’s going to be vulnerable,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. It’s “embedded in current stock prices that investors expect rate cuts.”

Housing Market,
"With mortgage rates hovering around 7%, the monthly mortgage payment for someone buying a median priced home climbed to $2,291 in May, up from $1,205 three years earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. 
Economists expected sales to decline in response to the higher borrowing costs — and they did. “What was unexpected is how powerful the lock-in effect can be if the economy is not in a recession,” said Ralph McLaughlin, senior economist for Realtor.com."

Back to me 🤪,

I included all of the above because it shows an economy that is stuggling, especially lower income families and small businesses, it is the Feds job to act in the best interest of all Americans, the decisions and the implifications of those decisions will have huge impact on the market and the American people.
It is obvious what the Fed should/needs to do, whether or not they will do so or be swayed by political agenda will be seen tomorrow.

Tomorrow is going to be incredibly volatile, please trade safely.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #fomc

I was browsing around crypto news and i came across a post/news article.

I post to try educate and this was a great example to use as a learning experience.
This is mostly for newer traders who are more susceptible to making uninformed or misinformed decisions.
This post will show why you should not take Crypto news/posts(Hype or FUD) at face value, even when you read them on trusted sites.

Before we start, what is open interest?

Open interest is the total value of open positions or position that have not been offset in the futures markets on crypto exchanges, this is long and short positions.
Example,
If you have $1000 and you open a long/short trade on BTC(futures)using 10x leverage you would be adding $10 000 to the open interest while that trade is open.
If you purchased $1000 worth of BTC via spot this would not count as open interest, this would be trade volume.

This is the post👇(July 29th)

I have underlined all the parts of this post that most uninformed Crypto traders would use for confirmation of huge Bullish price movement to come.
The first and most important part of how this post could be recieved by new or uninformed crypto traders are the words "suggests imminent price breakout"
This post is by a well known crypto news source, cointelegraph, it is also shared all over the web, i read this post on Tradingview for example.
Please note that this post made no mention of how BTC price reacted when reaching this level of open interest in the last few months.
For some reason the chart shown in the post has also unselected the BTC price.
Lets go to coinglass and see the chart, exact same one they used in the post.
With the BTC price they for some reason decided to not include👇

Ok so lets do some research and see how accurate that post is or if it could be considered misleading
The post mentions previous all time highs(open interest) on the 29th March 2024 (it was actually the 28th march but anyways)

Lets see how high levels of open interest have effected BTC price over the last few months.

29th March 👇

Lets look at other examples.
This is the exact same chart used for that post, you can find it on coinglass.

You can see by the yellow line how BTC price has reacted to high open interest in the following days.
If you want to see the same on the charts👇

In all cases of high open interest since March 29th(the date listed in the post) the BTC price has fallen in the days that follow.
Why should an imminent price breakout, based on open interest, happen now? (As suggested in the post)
If you were an uninformed Crypto trader and read that post you could easily be misled, that post is by a trusted source, also shared on other trusted platforms like tradingview, it could easily be used as "proof" of Bullish sentiment and a reason to open long positions.(Possibly with high leverage)
Most new crypto traders have no idea what open interest is, most of these articles are either clickbait with cherry picked info or they are posted for the sole intention of influencing your decisions(PsyOp).
This is done a lot and the more you understand the more you notice it.
This post is solely for education, i am not predicting price movement or saying you should based on this post.
The point of this post is to show that you need to question information you read, this is more important if you are new to crypto and this information could influence your trading decisions.
If you read a post and find yourself wanting to invest based on it, first ask yourself if you understand what it means, if you dont then take the time to learn, the knowledge will stay with you and will help you in the future.
If you keep doing this then slowly but surely things will start making more and more sense.
Final thoughts,

There are ways to use open interest in your trading strategy but high levels of open interest alone can not be used as confirmation of price direction, arbitrage and other factors could add to open interest but not have much effect on price direction.
An example of this would be if a large holder purchased $10 million worth of BTC on binance(spot) at $61 000(not open interest) and then shorted BTC at 1-1 for $10 million on coinbase if the price was $61 250(Open interest), they would be taking advantage of price difference(arbitrage) but this would add $10 million to the open interest, the short is futures and the spot is not, the effect on BTC price would be basically nothing but the open interest would be effected by $10 million.

Thanks for reading.

Peace

#TheWolfThatWins #LearnTogether #BTC☀ #btcupdates2024

This is a prequel for another post i will be posting in the next few days.

The post in question will be long but it will give you an edge, sadly the posts that take me the most time and are filled with the most knowledge are the posts that get the lowest views(By Far)
This post will hopefully lead more of you to read my next "boring" post.
Lets go,
So what is you edge?
Most people who read my posts have jobs or are studying, you will have an edge in that field over others who have not done your job or studied what you have.
Even somebody who is homeless and without a penny to their name has an edge, they will know how to survive in far tougher conditions than people who have not had to face such adversity.
We can gain an edge out of necessity or the will and determination to be better than someone else.

Why do many people think that you dont need an edge in Crypto?

Most importantly why you dont need to earn one?

Crypto is a zero sum game.

If you are making money, someone else is losing, and vice versa.

I have a limited edge in Crypto because of knowledge,

I have spent countless hours doing research into crypto, mostly macro and fundamentals, somewhere along the way i had an "aha moment" when i could finally connect the dots on a level that gave me an edge.

My edge only goes so far,

I lose 100% of my edge if i trade high leverage/margin, i know this.

This is not only because high leverage/margin is inherently rigged against retail investors, it is also because i dont have the mentality/discipline to control myself.

You might already have an edge in Crypto,
You might have an edge because you have dedicated countless hours to Crypto trading in a constructive way. You could have an edge just by being disciplined, discipline alone gives you an edge over most retail crypto traders. You could have an edge because you only buy Spot on dips.You could have an edge because you are financially secure and you are able to make crypto investment decisions without financial fear.

If you are down in Crypto and cant find your edge then you have a few options,

(Option A) You rely on somebody elses edge, whether that be a family member, a friend or somebody on Square or YT or elsewhere, your edge is only as good as the knowledge they give you and how you use it, at this point you need to ask yourself how easily did they attain this edge, also how easily could you just spend some time and gain this edge for yourself?(Option B) You take the time to learn, you study, you slowly increase your edge over other traders, if you do this in a sensible way and dedicate your time and energy to gaining an edge, you will also have an "aha moment" when you start to understand the edge you have, an edge you lacked previously.(Option C) You just keep repeating the same trading patterns as you have in the past and hope this time it will be different, spoiler it wont be, you either need to find an edge or you need to stop.

You cant be succesful in crypto without an edge.

The crypto market has a huge imbalance of power(edge) and it is only going to get a LOT worse before it gets better.

This is just one days worth of "venture capital" news on "The Block" from 25th July👇

This crypto market is a Gold Rush for venture capital

This is not a belief in crypto, this is the richest 1% wanting to profit off Crypto as much as they can in the coming years, this is unregulated bliss for them, they are exploiting a massive edge they have in the market.
My VC Cartel post shows how much of an edge they have

Every penny that goes into Crypto it being fought over,

The higher your edge and the more you get.The lower your edge and the more money you lose.

This entire list probably has an edge on you, definitely on me.👇
Governments Large fundsLarge venture capitalLarge CEXsLarge stable coinsWhales Insider TradersLarge and small criminal groups.Any team/VC friendly Crypto project.Large/mid sized influencers.Well educated/extremely disciplined Crypto traders.Any/All of the above that are using extremely high quality bots to trade.

I could probably add far more to this list, for your average crypto trader this list is basically the unbeatable part of Crypto.
Once all of the above have exploited their edge it is left to the rest of us to fight for the scraps.
They take the meat and we pick at the bones.
I would probably guess that for every dollar/fiat currency equivalent that goes into crypto around 99% ends up in the hands of one of the above list.
This might sound very daunting and it is, we have empowered the rich and allowed them to feast on crypto, the gluttony will not end for a long time, once they have the power they will fight to keep it.

You need an edge, now more than ever

The edge i think i have currently is understanding where the Crypto market will be heading in the next months-year.
I hate where it is headed and had a moral dilemma even wanting to post about it.
I dont want to fuel the VC part of crypto or give them more power, at the same time i know crypto and i know most will invest anyways, i guess offering an educated view, based on research, is the lesser of 2 evils.
I know the VCs will be heavily invested and pushing the re-staking narrative in the months to come, including all tokens, new or existing, that are VC backed and fall into that ecosystem.
I want to be in before the "real" hype and out before the crash.
I want to help people who follow me to understand and gain an edge, i can assure you that when Eigen or its competitors go fully live towards the end of this year then thats where the VCs will heavily influence you to invest.
All the big YT or social media channels, even the square posters with 50-100k+ followers(they are mostly binance backed), everyone will be pushing this narrative.
All of the VC garbage/scam projects allocate tokens for influences, these influencers are selling you something they already own, they want you to be their exit liquidity.
I dont own a single token in this space, i want to educate you and when i suggest buying into projects you will know why, i will do this before i enter anything myself.
Your edge in the coming months is to understand the narrative before it has blown up on social media.
We need to get in, make profits, and then get out, the only way to beat this part of crypto is to have an edge and use it.
In my next post i will explain this narrative and also show why it has not even started to explode yet, currently it cant for technical reasons(slashing, rewards), once those are sorted out and it goes fully live then the next VC Gold Rush will start.

We will be in before that happens.🤙

Thanks for reading.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #EigenLayer #ALTrestaking #ETHETFsApproved

I will show you in this post that no matter how low you think Crypto prices are currently, the early investors(VC) dont care and are in huge profit regardless.

This is a long read but you will learn something from this post, it also includes a trade idea at the end. (Because most will all ask anyways 😂)

I research crypto A LOT, probably to much for my own sanity, i know how the crypto market is getting manipulated and how retail is being used to make VC investors even richer.
Most in Crypto sadly dont understand this, hopefully this post will teach you something.

Thank you to TRimmis for pointing this unlock out for me🤝

In this post i am Using AltLayer as an example.

In 10 days AltLayer has a very important unlock happening, important for the early investors , this is a great example of a much larger problem happening in crypto.
While i am focusing on AltLayer for this post, AltLayer is just one of hundreds of projects that are founded, funded, launched on exchanges , all in a very similar way.
Pro VC, Anti retail.

For reference VC/VCs are venture capital/capitalists ( Investors who fund crypto projects before retail traders can buy them)

Case Study $ALT - AltLayer.

Current price - 0.1329
Current Market cap - $ 146 Million
Fully diluted value - $1.32 Billion
Circulating supply - 11%

For this post i want to focus on Investors(including advisors) and team.

I want to break down how profitable it is starting a project like AltLayer.
As shown in the image above the Team and Investors(Including advisors) have 38.5% of tokens(Total supply) allocated to them.
Team 15%Investors 18.5%Advisors 5%

Before we go further it is important to understand that these projects have a vesting period
A vesting period is a predetermined amount of time that tokens are locked, before this time the tokens should not be allowed to be unlocked, transferred or sold. A vesting period is supposed to protect retail investors from rug pulls and rapid inflation, vesting periods can be split into many unlocks over many years.

I underlined the word "should" because this is not always the case, in projects that are dodgy or where the project team/investors make the decisions, these unlocks can happen whenever the project team want, it was why months ago i told people to sell their PYTH tokens(And i got a lot of hate), the Pyth project team did exactly that, they unlocked their tokens prior to the vesting period to sell at a better price.

After the vesting period tokens will be unlocked and distributed as per the defined allocation breakdown, these unlocks happen in 2 ways, a linear or cliff unlock.
Linear is a slow release of tokens over time, could be days,weeks,months. Cliff unlock is a total unlock on a certain date.Cliff unlocks have far more impact on price as they potentially flood the market with new supply, the larger the unlock % to the current circulating supply, the larger the possible effect.

In 10 days $ALT (AltLayer) has a HUGE cliff unlock coming !👇

684 Million $ALT tokens will be unlocked, an increase of 42% of the current supply, this unlock is worth $86.7 Million

This is the breakdown 👇

I have underlined the token unlocks going to team and investors.
The $ amount of the July 25th unlock (at todays prices)
Team - $23.8 MillionInvestors - $39 MillionAdvisors - $10 Million

This is USD value, this is what they can sell their unlocked tokens for.
Investors and advisors are basically the same thing, so $49 million going to investors in this unlock.
In 10 days the early investors will be able to cash out this $49 Million

This is what VCs paid to invest in AltLayer.👇

Lets break this down.

The TOTAL raised for AltLayer funding was $21.6 Million.
Inicial seed VCs ($7.2M invested) paid $0.008 for their tokens( at current prices they are up 1400% ROI)
Strategic partners($14.4m Invested) paid $0.018 for their tokens (at current prices they are up 576% ROI)
Also please note this $14.4M strategic investment happen in Feb 2024, 5 months ago.
In the July 25th unlock alone the investors will unlock $49 million worth of tokens, this is just one of many future unlocks to come.

AltLayer only launched on Binance 6 months ago.
This is the first cliff unlock for investors, they are unlocking $49 million worth of value on their first unlock, total funding was $21 Million.
As the image above shows, the VCs will still recieve tokens via unlock until mid 2028, on their first unlock alone they have already more than 2x their funding investment.
$21.6 million funded($14 Million of which was 5 months ago) -> $49 million on first unlock.
For uninformed retail traders the current AltLayer prices seem low.
Why?
It is basically a PsyOP and little else.
We have slowly been manipulated to accept that the price tokens trade at in the days-weeks after launch is their fair value, or even that they are undervalued.
Because AltLayer was $0.60 or $0.50 only a couple months ago we now believe that the current price of 0.132 is an absolute gift.
The VCs on AltLayer will make $28 Million(or more) profit on their first unlock , after that they have 4 more years of profitable unlocks to come, this unlock returns their full investment and a large profit, we make it so easy for them.
95% of these projects have little real world usage, their value is solely what retail traders will pay for tokens and how much VCs can make.
Each of these projects have their own diehard fan base, for AltLayer it is probably the people who went all in at $0.50-$0.60 , now they have to tell themselves and others that it is the best project in the world.
Also note that Binance are one of the investors, not only on AltLayer but nearly all other tokens launched on the exchange, they get free/basically free % for launching the project on Binance, they make Billions off it.
Binance rarely, if ever, disclose their funding agreement with these projects, you can decide for yourself why (So i dont get banned)

There is no solution to this until most of Crypto stops supporting these projects.

The tokens from the upcoming Altlayer unlock will be dumped in the days-weeks after the unlock (Or before if they dont respect the vesting period)
The sale of these tokens give early investors a risk free and profitable investment, the next 4 years are all profit.
The problem is the VCs know that many in Crypto are becoming wiser to these VC funded, mostly garbage projects, and to the unlocks.
These tokens could be unlocked prior to the scheduled unlock, price could also be manipulated in the days before and after the unlock so the VCs and Team can get max value when they dump their tokens.

These VCs are already rich, they can afford to hold the tokens after unlock, just because they are unlocked doesnt mean they will be sold, it just makes them transferable to be sold.
With current economic/crypto price uncertainty i feel that the VCs will dump most of their tokens around this unlock.

*Edit* I included a trade idea at the end of this post that i have since removed as it is no longer valid and i dont want it to be misleading, i shorted ALT at 0.16 before the unlock and took profits when price dropped to 0.13.
If you enjoyed this post a like is always appreciated, i put a lot of time and love into these posts.🤙

Peace

#TheWolfThatWins #altsesaon #AltLayer #BinanceSquareFamily 👇

Last night i read an article about how more and more people are storing funds in USDT, mostly in Countries like Argentina to protect themselves from hyperinflation, this is happening in many countries across the world.

People using USDT for this are likely to be the people whos lives would be ruined if something bad happened.
Most countries effected by hyperinflation or fiat currency uncertainty are also the countries that have far weaker crypto regulations or enforcement agencies that could recover funds.
If you use USDT for this or know somebody who does please share this with them.
The way USDT is run worries me daily, it worries me more with possible MICA fallout and because of US economic concerns( USDT claim 80% of their reserves are in US treasuries)
I am working on a larger story about this with another person, for my own safety and to not get sued there are some things i cant include here.

If you want to know more then google each one of these people, these are the shareholders and people running Tether, a $112 Billion company.(And Bitfinex)
You will find most have criminal links/Pasts or ties to criminal syndicates.

Note that many of them are also shareholders or directors of Bitfinex crypto exchange, including Jean-Louis der velde who is Bitfinex Ceo and Tether shareholder.
Most of them are Italian Citizens.

I wont go into great detail for my own safety, what i will point out is that Stuart Hoegner who is the general counsel for Tether and Bitfinex was head of compliance and security at a company called excapa prior to working for tether/bitfinex.
Excapa ran Ultimate bet which was a hugely popular online poker site.
Ultimate bet defrauded its clients of millions by allowing backdoors in the software that allowed certain(Insider)players to see other players cards, if you dont understand poker this is basically a free money cheat at the expense of regular players, the person who was responsible for client safety at ultimate bet was Stuart Hoegner, now General Councel at Tether/Bitfinex.
He does not seem like a great choice to be General councel for crypto companies worth hundreds of billions.
I could say a LOT about each of them, i might get banned if i do, if you have any concerns take the time to google them yourself, the rabbit hole gets very deep and very scary the deeper you go.

Tethers "Audits" 👇 (These are not audits, they are screenshots for 1 day)

PLEASE PLEASE READ THIS 👇(Copy and paste if you need translation)

Also please note ALL the BDO reports for the last 2 years were done by 1 person, Andrea Mezzadra.

The directors are mostly Italian, they are "audited" by BDO Italy and by 1 person, Andrea Mezzadra, who is also Italian, do you feel we might have a conflict of interest? (Tether is not run out of Italy, why is it "audited" there?)

I wanted to include screenshots of Tethers terms of service but i can get sued for sharing them, it says so in their terms.

Some key points
Tethers funds are not insuredBy using Tether you waive the right to a Jury trialBy using Tether you waive the right to a class action lawsuit, each claim can only be on a person by person basisTether accepts nearly 0 responsibility for loss of fundsTether accepts 0 responsibilty if the reserve report on their site is not accurate for any reason.Basically their terms of service protects them from nearly everything, including insolvency for any reason, if you want to make a claim you need to do so on a person by person basis through courts in the British Virgin Isles.

If you want to read their terms of service in full go ahead, its on USDT site.
Also note that USDT, Bitfinex and many of the other companies run by Ifinex(Parent company)are all run through endless shelf companies across the world, most in tax havens that have far more lenient financial regulations.
Also note that USDT and Bitfinex settled out of court in America for moving huge amount of funds between companies, this was likely done to show funds in Bitfinex when they were "audited", it also meant at that time Tether did not have the funds to back the reserves.
This is also why they wont have a full audit most likely, they can move funds between companies for screenshots on the day of each companies "Audit"
USDT and Bitfinex paid a settlement fine for this, they were also required to give statements to the US securities board for a period of 2 years, that 2 years ended in December 2023.
USDT around this time also changed the wording on their site, it used to say that Tether was "backed 1-1 by the US dollar", without any Crypto community vote or any announcement prior to the fact they changed this to " backed by Tether reserves."
80% of these reserves are "shown" to be in 3 month US treasury bills(Treasury bills are US government debt)
Treasury bills are nearly risk free, they are backed by the US government.

The question you need to ask yourself,
Has the US government stopped scrutinizing Tether so closely because they are such a large holder of US debt.(US Treasury Bills)Does the US goverment turn a blind eye as they can use Tether to see on chain transactions and catch other criminals(the use of tether has been linked to funding terrorism, human trafficking and more)If 80% of Tethers funds are held in US treasuries then why do they not allow a top 4 auditing firm(Deloitte, KPMG, Ernst&Young) to do a FULL audit?, auditing treasury holdings is what these firms do all day, the remaining 20% of Tethers funds are held in BTC, Gold, Money market accounts and secured loans.(All very easy to audit)Tether says top 4 auditing firms wont audit them, thats absolute garbage, it is 2024 and all top auditing firms are more than capable of auditing companies like tether.Each day, around the world, crypto funds are tracked and seized by governments, many of these governments use auditing firms to help them, the fact Tether says no top 4 auditing firm will, or is capable of auditing them is absolute garbage and it is cause for huge alarm.

People use Tether all the time for futures trading, this concern is not my main concern.
My concern is for the people who are using USDT as a savings account, many might have most of their life saving invested in USDT if their local economy or currency is volatile.
Also because USDT is so large it would effect all of crypto liquidity
If you plan on holding Stable coins only for this reason i would strongly advise splitting your holding into other coins like USDC.
USDC is already MICA compliant, they are linked and backed by Black Rock and Coinbase, they are audited by Deloitte and are headquartered in Boston, America.

I would also recommend reading this book👇

I gain absolutely nothing from posting this so please dont start with the FUD comments.
I make these posts to help people understand risks, i mentioned in this post about the Ultimate bet poker scandal, i played poker for a living at this time, i was effected by this, i also had to wait nearly 4 years to get a huge part of my net worth out of Full Tilt poker when that scam happened, in 2018 i lost 5 BTC to a "APY" type scam.
My point is i have been scammed, i have lived through that sickening feeling of knowing you have been scammed, also how easy it is to trust something just because many others do.

I really hate scammers.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #Market_Update #USDT。 #scamriskwarning

What happens in the next 2 days is part of a far larger game, sadly that game also effects Crypto price in a big way.

July 9th 2PM UTC
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before the finance committee
July 10th- 2PM UTC
Jerome Powell will resume day 2 of testifying before the finance committee.

Things to note,
This will be Powells last scheduled public address to congress before electionsWhat Powell says will have far greater impact than what Yellen says.(Yellen is speaking for Bidens economic policy,it wont have as much effect this close to elections)The Fed(Including Powell) is an independent government agency(Central Bank), they are not controlled or funded by either party or the President.

I have including these election odds because these mattter more than ever, including for the short term price of Crypto.

After Bidens horrendous showing in the first presidential debate it was widely speculated he would drop out, in the days that followed Harris overtook Biden as the odds on favorite to run against Trump.
Since then Biden has firmly denied any chance he will drop out, he has even gone on national TV and done high profile interviews to enforce he will run in this election.

What the FED does now is KEY!

As noted the Fed, Chaired by Jerome Powell is an independent Government agency responsible for the central banks policy, they are not funded from the government budget, they are however accountable to congress and the American people for their monetary Policy.
Only a fool would be naive enough to believe the FED, including Powell and all its voting members have 0 political agenda this close to election.
In the next 2 days the democrats will be pushing for a clear indication of an interest rate cut, either in July but more likely in September, they need this as the US economy is either already in a hidden recession or on the brink of recession, the American people are already feeling the pressure of this higher for longer stance, these are the people who will decide the next president.
Keeping rates higher and putting more stress on the American economy and a vast number of its population would empower Trump and his campaign even more, one of Trumps many campaign promises is to lower Interest rates and taxes.
The American economy could already be passed the point of a "Soft landing", any shocks in the coming days will likely be politically motivated.

Things that could shock the market in the next 2 days,

Powell makes a July interest rate cut a realistic possibilty, this would without question be politically motivated to help the cause of the democratic party, it would also send stocks and crypto up A LOT.Powell says the economy and the labour market is strong and the Feds higher for longer stance is working and needs more time, decreasing the odds of a September cut, once again this would be politically motivated and favour the republican party, the US economy and the labour market are not fine.

Please note that no interest rate decisions happen in August, its July or September for the near term.

The wider market is also waiting to see what happens in the comings day, the start of the week has shown total indecision in the market, Gold price has lost its Friday gains, the S&P500 started today up but has since lost its early gains, the DXY has made up for some of its losses last week.

If we were not so close to election i would see this as a Bullish opportunity for Crypto (Short term), not because i think the US economy is fine, i think the total opposite.
I can name 50 readings that show the US economy is on the brink of recession(or crash) but for now they mean little for the short term price.
I know, and so do all the hedge funds and market movers, that before a recession or crash, the FED will make drastic, last gasp moves , these moves will lead to a last Euphoric phase before the bubble bursts.(This is only if the FED have no political agenda)
This is why i am monitoring other markets so closely, unfortunately this close to an election it adds a level of uncertainty that nobody(without insider knowledge) can predict.

If the Fed is not corrupted and has no political agenda then Powells testimony in the next 2 days should keep the odds of a September cut and possibly 1 more in November/December as the likely outcome.

What is said in the next 2 days will have huge implications as to how Crypto, S&P500, Gold and the DXY price reacts.(It will effect everything, these just give a basic market understanding)

I have no insider knowledge and also little trust in any system when the stakes are this high.

If you want to enter positions now then do so in Spot or extremely low leverage or margin.

I cant stress enough how volatile the next few days will be, there is huge uncertainty across the markets, across the world, when that pent up uncertainty hits the market it will create havoc short term, especially to high leverage and margin.

Please trade safely.

Peace

#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Market_Update #MtGoxJulyRepayments