In the past three months, while Bitcoin has not yet seen the expected "crazy bull run" by retail investors, altcoins have experienced a surge of up to 10x. the cryptocurrency market, which has been stuck in a bear market for nearly two years, has long been stagnant. However, low market cap projects such as #TRB , #GAS , and #BLZ seem to have accurately predicted the bullish sentiment towards BTC spot ETFs and closely followed the BRC20 FOMO, launching a wave of price movements.
TRB, with almost 20x growth in just two months, perpetual contract high premiums, dominated the Binance square and was hailed as the "most classic manipulation of 2023."
Similarly, #ARK , which has surged 3x since the end of October, also has many similar features to the early rise of TRB. This is particularly evident in on-chain data analysis, with frequent sightings of whale activity, leading to speculation around future trends.

First stage: whale comes up on Binance, and cross-platform arbitrage activities appear.
According to CMC data, by the end of October 2023, UPBIT's cold and hot wallets held over 50% of the total ARK supply, while Binance held only about 20%. However, the ARK price on Binance had clearly risen since October 29th and had been consistently trading at a premium over UPBIT, leading to a large migration of ARK holdings to Binance. In less than two weeks, UPBIT's share of ARK's wallet balance fell by over 30%, while Binance's share correspondingly rose, making it the largest concentrated ARK holdings on the network.

During this process, Binance saw a surge of buying orders, with data analysis showing that in just three days between October 29th and October 31st, Binance's ARK spot trading volume exceeded 400 million ARK, equivalent to more than 200% of the total supply and the turnover is extremely active. Several whale accounts had net purchases of more than 50 million ARK during this period, which was the driving force behind the price movement. The price gap between UPBIT and Binance also provides an excellent opportunity to arbitrage between the two exchanges.
Associated wallet addresses:
AMMwxQZGYLEGwSQyy3Q6nmViTD36WCnTQ4
ANapGk9mbnMZtVhyiNrKpWL6ZcUZqg1xyT
Frequently made large transfers of funds between the two exchanges, with deposits and withdrawals accounting for over 40% of the trading volume, earning most of the profits from the arbitrage.

Second stage: Large ARK withdrawals on Binance, voting surge.
As whale buying slowed in the first stage, Binance saw a large outflow of ARK. According to ARKSCAN, the withdrawal of over 40 million ARK, worth more than $60 million, was made from just five whale addresses, accounting for 22.5% of the total supply. Currently, these addresses still have continuous ARK inflows, indicating the whales have the tendency to hoard the ARK.
Whale wallets:
AZQydzyd9GauPFY9VetpPqkvB4Ka2kPZ7T
AQ3fq7zp4QZjTQkhmXQsdvNTY5mCLgqKEy
AS9udo7QPuKv3r3HEo46McWeCkAC63XgQT
AMTjcfENnH4fr32sneYUesLRd9GHEXcjNm
AHd3DPCtsFwAoVdn3NGvnZ5ENvkeBAkzVn
ARK's DPOS mechanism has a voting system, and since the bullish trend, the total amount of votes has increased rapidly. The total number of votes has increased from less than 40 million on November 20th to over 61 million on November 25th, adding over 20 million ARK votes in five days and increasing by more than 50%. The overall voting rate reached 36%, resulting in a further reduction of the actual circulation of ARK.

All this evidence suggests that ARK's price surge was initiated by whales on Binance, leading to a large proportion of UPBIT's circulating supply being transferred to Binance.
Subsequently, whale accounts withdrew their ARK coins to cold wallets. The overall voting rate for ARK has also surged recently, reducing the circulating supply. A series of operations has led to a similar trend to TRB's first bull run, such as high buying volumes, large withdrawals to cold wallets, and no pullbacks.
ARK, launched in 2017, was first listed in South Korea as a strong gambling country. Fully circulated, its cross-chain concept resonates with Layer2 and it being launched on Gate and Binance around the same time as other factors making it particularly susceptible to a surge as part of a small market cap project on Binance.
Currently, ARK has plateaued at around 1.6 USDT after surging 3x. Whether it can continue to write the TRB legend remains to be seen.

过去三个月，#BTC 虽然还未迎来散户期盼的“狂暴大牛市”，但在其震荡回升的过程中，小币种却掀起了一波10倍起步的狂欢。深陷熊市近2年的加密货币市场，苦不涨久矣。#TRB 、#GAS 、#BLZ ...，币安的小市值币种似乎精准预判了BTC现货ETF的利好以及紧随其后的BRC20热点，提前发动了一波暴力行情。
TRB 更是凭借2个月近20倍的涨幅、永续合约超长时间高费率以及上涨过程无“插针”回调而霸榜币安广场，被奉为“2023年最经典的操盘”。
无独有偶，10月底至今暴涨3倍的 #ARK ，也是具备了早期TRB上涨的诸多特征。从链上数据分析看，则更为明显，而且其中频频出现巨鲸的身影，不免让人对后续走势产生联想。

第一阶段：币安鲸鱼出没，搬砖大户出现。
根据CMC数据显示，2023年10月底，UPBIT冷热钱包中ARK总数量占比超过ARK总发行量的50%，币安只占约20%。而币安价格自10月29日开始明显拉升，且一直相对UPBIT溢价，随之而来的是ARK存量大迁徙。不到半个月的时间，UPBIT钱包占比下跌超30%，而币安占比则相应上升，成为全网最大的ARK集中地。

在这一过程中，币安涌现出强力的买盘，据数据检测显示，10约29至10约31日，仅3天时间币安ARK现货成交即超过4亿枚，相当于总发行量的200%以上，换手极其活跃。数个鲸鱼账户在此期间净买入超5000万枚ARK，是推动行情的绝对力量。
而UPBIT与币安之间的价差空间也为搬砖大户提供了绝佳机会，链上数据显示，钱包地址
AMMwxQZGYLEGwSQyy3Q6nmViTD36WCnTQ4
ANapGk9mbnMZtVhyiNrKpWL6ZcUZqg1xyT
在两个交易所间频繁大额转账，充提币占比一度超过40%，吃到了这次行情中交易所套利的大部分利润。

第二阶段：大户提币，投票激增。
伴随着鲸鱼第一阶段买入动作减缓，币安出现了大量ARK流出。ARKSCAN显示，单以下5个鲸鱼地址就提现了超4000万枚ARK，价值超6000万美元，占比为总供应量的22.5%。目前这些地址仍只进不出，屯币行为明显。
AZQydzyd9GauPFY9VetpPqkvB4Ka2kPZ7T
AQ3fq7zp4QZjTQkhmXQsdvNTY5mCLgqKEy
AS9udo7QPuKv3r3HEo46McWeCkAC63XgQT
AMTjcfENnH4fr32sneYUesLRd9GHEXcjNm
AHd3DPCtsFwAoVdn3NGvnZ5ENvkeBAkzVn
同时，DPOS机制的ARK有投票机制，自行情上涨以来，全网质押投票数量出现快速上升。仅从11月20日至25日，投票数量就从不到4000万快速攀升至6100万之上，新增超过投票2000万枚ARK，增幅超50%，全网投票率达到36%，导致ARK实际流通数量进一步缩减。

种种迹象表明，ARK此轮行情由鲸鱼在币安发动，导致UPBIT的存量币大部分转移至了币安。之后鲸鱼提现至冷钱包中屯放；ARK全网投票率也在近期快速攀升，锁定了实际流动性。一系列操作让人联想TRB第一波上涨时的币安放量买盘，冷钱包大额存入，没有插针回调等类似情况。结合ARK属2017年前老项目、首发在“赌性坚强”的韩国、代币已经全流通、其跨链概念可能和L2热点共振、gate&币安都选在前段时间上线等诸多因素，使其具备了此一轮币安小市值币种爆炒的“体质”。

目前ARK暴涨3倍后横盘在1.6U上下，能否续写TRB的神话，我们拭目以待。